Which states are most likely to flip to the Republicans should a generic mainstream challenger like Romney or Perry be nominated in 2012?
How is Rick Perry mainstream? Rudy Giuliani is mainstream. Mike Huckabee is mainstream.
We know little about Indiana except that Obama barely won it in what looks like freakish circumstances unlikely to be repeated. But that said, the demographics of Indiana suggest that it may be trending D as have its neighbors except for Kentucky. Indiana is Rustbelt, and a Republican nominee can lose this state. I can't imagine Indiana being more D than the national average.
Polls in North Carolina show the state more sympathetic to President Obama than some that the President won by larger margins. How do you know that the Governor of Indiana is popular? The state has had protests against the Governor's policies, which just don't happen when the Governor is that popular.
Look at the polls. The President is nearly even in both places, which at this stage (nobody can please more than half the public except in the aftermath of some huge achievement probably not of his doing) suggests that he will win. Sure there will be ups and downs, but we have seen both ups and downs.
Check back shortly when approval ratings come for the two Republicans in Congress from New Hampshire and of the new Senator.
It takes only 50% of the votes between the two main contenders to win any state... but Iowa shows no sign of going R.
For an approval rating between 40% and 47% at this stage, a good estimate of the vote share that the incumbent will get is 6% more. Governing and campaigning are two vastly-different critters. The President isn't campaigning now -- and we can all be glad of that. He is a fine campaigner, and he will pull out the excellent GOTV apparatus a little more than a year from now.
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