MS-PPP: All Republicans ahead of Obama

[pbrower2a]

Mississippi projects to be closer in 2012 in the Presidential race than in 2008. Racial polarization in approval remains extreme in Mississippi. President Obama stands to lose lose this state by a middle-to high single-digit margin against anyone but Huckabee.   Mike Huckabee would probably win Mississippi by about a 12% margin. If anything can erodes such polarization, then President Obama picks up Mississippi.

Mike Huckabee is the perfect fit for Mississippi, even more than Haley Barbour, probably because he better fits the cultural profile of white Mississippians (54-40) even with no favorite-son effect.  

For a favorite-son, Haley Barbour does surprisingly poorly in Mississippi. A 51-41 split isn't the 57-something split that John Thune shows in South Dakota. Figure that the favorite-son advantage is worth about 10% on average, that Mississippi is about R+10 in nationwide or statewide votes, and Haley Barbour would do at most 42% of the nationwide vote against President Obama. A 57-42 nationwide (which is very charitable)  split in favor of President Obama flips a bunch of McCain States (MO, MT, GA, AZ, ND, SC, SD, maybe TX, KY, and TN) to set up something like an Eisenhower-scale win for the Presidency.  

I doubt that Barbour would be a VP candidate to help some Northern Republican (let us say Thune or Pawlenty) shore up the South. If the Republican nominee thinks that he needs to shore up states like Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi, then President Obama is on the brink of a landslide irrespective of who the VP nominee is.          

[pbrower2a]

I'm a bit shocked that in Mississippi of all places, Palin leads by only 4 points. Is she really that unpopular, even down South?

I wouldn't give President Obama much of a chance against any Republican in Mississippi except against Sarah Palin. For obvious reasons (the state's politics are almost tribal), President Obama is a horrible match for Mississippi.  The only sort of Democrat who can Mississippi since the 1960 is a "good ol' boy" of the sort that Jimmy Carter was (once) in 1976. Barack Obama couldn't restyle himself fast enough to win Mississippi even if he were white.

Sarah Palin loses this state, though, if the 2012 boils down to foreign policy and military affairs and she is the Republican nominee. Military issues and foreign policy matter significantly in the South, probably the only part of the country in which white people join the all-volunteer Armed Forces in above-average numbers for the US as a whole.  I think that Sarah Palin needs only expose her ignorance on foreign policy and military issues should those go well for President Obama but seem to depend upon him and upon those around him for the possibility of safety. That just hasn't happened yet, and I can't yet predict it happening.    

[pbrower2a]

Mississippi will vote for the Republican nominee if President Obama can't get more than 30% of the white vote in Mississippi. Mississippi politics look downright tribal from where I am. If white people in Mississippi voted like white people in Kansas or West Virginia, then he would win Mississippi. He would have to win close to 50% of the white vote in either Kansas or West Virginia to win either Kansas or West Virginia because those states have overwhelming white majorities.

President Obama is the definitive d@mn-yankee politician, someone who just can't connect at all with southern, white, rural culture. He's perfectly made for winning over large crowds in urban America (urban America now including the suburbs). Such is good for winning Virginia but not Tennessee. He has learned that he can outdo Republicans in one part of what used to be 'their' turf -- suburban voters concerned largely with tax rates and keeping their bosses happy. Now suburban voters have other concerns -- like the environment, traffic jams, and crime.