The sample is too Republican, based on the Obama-McCain question.
Also, isn't Obama somewhat more popular now? Based on polls, the Bin Laden bump is only starting to die down.
The release is new, but the poll was actually conducted right before the killing of Bin Laden (April 28th-May 1st)
It also refers to 'voters'. The projected margin for victory of Mitt Romney in Missouri has become razor-thin, and I am not surprised that Mike Huckabee does quite well in Missouri; southern Missouri, basically anything south of the St. Louis and Kansas City metro areas, is politically and economically much like Arkansas. President Obama did badly in the Mountain South -- the Ozarks and Appalachians -- likely because he is such a cultural non-fit to the area. Who runs can matter greatly in any state.
Missouri is drifting R. Missouri, which has a fire-and-ice climate that is more likely to cause retirees to flee than to attract them, didn't show the gains for the President that Arizona showed. It's not nice to scare Grandpa and Grandma about privatizing Medicare, and that's one way to turn the elderly against Republicans. But such is more of a hazard in a retiree haven like Arizona than in a state with a relatively-young population like Missouri.
Did anyone notice that newt Gingrich went behind President Obama in Missouri? I see that more as the fade of Gingrich than the strengthening of Obama.
