History suggests that re-elected presidents should win bigger the second time around. If he wins, 56-41 would seem a lot more likely than 50-48. I could see a narrow Bush 2004 style win with the president taking CO+NV+VA, which is probably what would happen if the election was today, but I think a big, 400+ EV win would be more likely. If the election is narrow, he probably wins though because of the Dem advantage in the electoral college. The GOP could win the PV with Obama still carrying Kerry+IA+NM+NV+CO or Kerry+NM+IA+VA for the EV win.
History doesn't always suggest what will happen in the future, but in any case, there was 1916.
Of course the unusual election of 1912 allowed Woodrow Wilson to win 81% of the electoral vote despite winning roughly 41% of the popular vote. Such would never have held in 1916.
Because Presidential winners just don't win between 58% and 64% of the electoral vote (a 'null area' that reflects more game theory than the relative strength of political campaigns even though random chance suggests that many elections would end up in that zone), it is more likely that President Obama would win fewer than 310 electoral votes or more than 360. Of course, should the President win re-election with 315 or 244 electoral votes, then the 'null area' likely shrinks. But should he win 325 electoral votes or so, then the theory of a 'null area' vanishes.
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