I think it would truly be a 50\50 election. Obama's campaigning skills will surely help him. But over 40% of Americans strongly disapprove of his job performance, which is pretty high considering his approval is still in the mid 40s.
The opponent also would matter. Mike Huckabee might be extremely strong in the South but not strong enough elsewhere to prevent bare Obama wins where they matter most. Romney would be more adept at winning the battleground states that both Parties need (OH, VA, FL, MO, NC, CO).
We do not have a parliamentary system, so there would be no snap election with little preparation and little time to expose weaknesses of candidates. President Obama has taken his biggest risks with popularity at times when the immediate effect of transitory unpopularity are least not only for himself but also for his Congressional majorities.
