On the one hand, this is a good poll for Beshear; it's a Republican-affiliated pollster and has had a Republican house effect in the past, so a tie in this poll might mean that he's leading at the moment.
On the other hand, it's a pretty bad one: when you go into the details it looks like a way more Democratic electorate than you'd expect from Kentucky (recalled vote is Trump+16, rather than the reality of Trump+26; you'd expect a little less than the real margin, because some people will always mistakenly believe that they voted for the winner, but 10 points is a lot); if there's a Trump+16 electorate then Beshear should be doing much better than a tie.
Pick your narrative.
If you compare exit polls between 2019 and 2020, the electorate party identification goes from R +5 to R +16, so that presidential recalled vote tracks assuming an electorate like 2019. It just goes to show how much off year elections hurt republicans in states where highly engaged voters are to the left of the state.
