2024 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Unelectable Bystander]

https://twitter.com/CookPolitical/status/1617840232405270528
Simultaneously having Lean D Montana and Tossup AZ is ridiculous.

Is it a rule that incumbents can’t start as underdogs? West Virginia at tossup is crazy.

I don’t like to start races as likely, but I think Florida is where it should be. I think many have been assigning false equivalence to Florida and treating it as more competitive than it is just because it is the best D pickup opportunity, not taking into account the massive registration trends.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Texas being Safe R is a little ridiculous. It'll be a heavy lift, but Cruz did terribly in 2018 and if the state continues to trend left after Biden's 5pt loss... it's not impossible

I usually buy into Blexas far less than others, but I have to agree it’s closer to lean than safe. Safe should be reserved for candidates that can survive a major scandal, wave environment, and strong challenger all at once. That isn’t really possible for someone that ran a close race last time.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Brutal numbers for Republicans in the latest Pennsylvania poll-

https://twitter.com/blockedfreq/status/1707425270028746847?s=20

Shapiro is very popular, hence the higher Democratic numbers. That doesn't mean that Biden is popular here.

The bigger reason is they have an insane sample. They have 31% of voters identifying as liberal, compared to 25% in 2022 and 24% in 2020.