OH-SEN 2024: Brown (D) vs Moreno (R)

[Unelectable Bystander]

Unless the GOP nominates a really bad candidate (as in, worse than JD Vance), it's not happening. Likely R flip.

Jim Jordan?

Honestly, Brown would probably lose even to him. It's not likely to matter who his opponent is if Trump carries Ohio, which he almost assuredly will.

Trump will not carry Ohio if he is not the 2024 nominee.

Lol

[Unelectable Bystander]

Dolan would not have any problems with turnout considering it’s a presidential year. He would probably even run ahead of the R ticket honestly.

The NBC exit polls had non-whites making up a similar amount of the electorate in 2022 vs 2022 (16 and 17%). Non-college whites went from 53% in 2020 to 46% in 2022. This was a huge factor working against Vance.

There is no such thing as a senator riding a governor’s coattails. Vance winning by 6 when everybody else won by 15-25% is only evidence of Vance being a bad candidate, Ryan being perhaps a titan, and Vance riding the coattails of Ohio being a red state.

I don’t buy that Ryan somehow lost votes by being palatable to moderate R’s in a state where the generic ballot is double digits in the other direction.

[Unelectable Bystander]

I’m always aware of the possibility of the GOP fumbling away races with bad candidates but I don’t see how this picture shows anything other than Ohio trending red. Polling, including exit polls, once again underestimated the Trump candidate by insane margins. Moreno himself looks likely to pull in more votes than Brown. Mahoning and Trumbull get redder every cycle and Moreno is performing fine in the wealthy suburbs.