Election models megathread

[Unelectable Bystander]

To summarize:

-They think the GCB will change after Labor Day due to polls shifting from registered voters to likely voters and undecideds breaking republican

-They still see an enthusiasm gap in some polls

-They think even a red ripple instead of a wave is plenty to flip the house

Individual races:

- CO-8 and NC-13 lean republican because they’re the type of seats that sway with the environment and they seem to think that Budd and O’Dea will win these seats and carry them across the finish line

- IN-1 tossup because R’s actually have some fundraising here, #candidate quality, and #trends

- GA-2 likely D because of no #candidate quality and also Warnock and Abrams may drag him across the finish line

-A bunch of other marginal R seats switching to likely by assuming the environment won’t be good enough for them to be competitive

[Unelectable Bystander]

There’s a politico article out there about how the GOP internals look fantastic in a few Biden-friendly districts in CO, OR, and Harder’s old Central Valley district. The most shocking was the new Oregon 6, which they had at R+7. These are internals so always take with a grain of salt, but it was conducted by Cygnal who is generally pretty decent and not hackish, and even the D internal has the race tied.

The point is that these are probably the polls that Wasserman had access to when he made some of those ratings shifts. Posters on here seem to imply that handicappers just randomly assign a status to races based on vibes and feels. They’re certainly wrong sometimes, but there is still a data element to it

[Unelectable Bystander]

Democrats struggling in Oregon-6 and Rhode Island-2 doesn't bode very well for them keeping the House to be quite frank.

If Republicans win either of those Seats the House is gone for the D's.

I’m increasingly confident that Russ Feingold is correct and this is an election of the perceived sane republican.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Somebody did an interview with Wasserman and he said the following:

-Democrats are facing a category 2 or 3 hurricane in the house

-The 80/20 rule still stands for how many tossup wins are needed for control, but also saying that there are a ton of lean D seats (including Maloney and Porter) and there will probably be more of those that fall compared to lean R seats

-The senate is close to 50/50

-He thinks 43% is where Franken could end up

-He trashed Cahaly for not disclosing his sampling methods lol

This is unrelated to the interview, but a republican operative in Wasserman’s timeline thinks Nevada is a done deal. No idea where he got this from but interesting.

[Unelectable Bystander]

538 is by no means perfect and I have issues with their models, but it is something quantifiable. The house is now 78-22 and senate is 59-41. Notably, Nevada is now tilting towards Laxalt and Oz has passed the Dems in OH/NC/WI.

The senate will end up in tossup territory at this rate once Vance, Budd, and Johnson’s odds increase towards where Rubio is. Democrats are still inflated, for that matter, by the fact that 538 thinks those are all more likely to flip than Arizona.