2022 Primary Election Night Coverage Megathread (9/13 - GRAND FINALE - DE, NH, RI)

[Unelectable Bystander]

Wow:
https://twitter.com/jaspscherer/status/1498829764060188682?cxt=HHwWlMC4mdbu9MwpA...
Collins was endorsed by MTG, so yeah. This is a good thing.

Is that the official final results?

Early vote only.

Very interesting filibuster idea

[Unelectable Bystander]

This looks like an emerging pattern of Texas republicans backing generic candidates over fake “trumpists”. It looks as possible as ever that the electorate just enjoys Bush or Romney types more than Trump rather than Texas shifting to D+10 by next year

[Unelectable Bystander]

My gut tells me George P. Bush makes it to 2nd spot, based off the slow gains he’s making from West Texas. It will be a nail-biter though.

What makes him such a west Texas titan?

[Unelectable Bystander]

Exit polls?

[Unelectable Bystander]

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1521671871422472192?t=INo5t1tNCLXOf3D9BP5CSA&...

I’ve seen enough. NE OH is going the way of Appalachia.

The big takeaway here though is that polling is still broken and will continue to underestimate the populist right in WWC areas

[Unelectable Bystander]

I don’t think it’s been emphasized enough that Vance beat Dolan by a full 9% and that it was not Dolan but Mandel who was comfortably in 2nd place. A lot of the Election Day analysis was wish-casting that was never grounded in reality even as it became apparent that Vance was cruising to an easy win

[Unelectable Bystander]

I think there’s a good balance somewhere in the middle here. Clearly there is no place for identity politics on the right, but there’s nothing wrong with hyping up GOP women who win their races fair and square. This creates a big tent image.

I disagree that moderate = good candidate but there’s absolutely value in having Miss Ohio representing the party. I also don’t see the theory that small majority with the right people is better than a big majority with a variety of people. This sounds like leftist speak, the best strategy is to win all the races.

Also electabro basement caucus is such a funny term

[Unelectable Bystander]

I couldn’t care less who wins in West Virginia as the winner will win by 1.5 million votes, but Wasserman doesn’t need to throw a passive aggressive temper tantrum about it by repeatedly calling him Trump-endorsed lol.

Also I imagine people will call them dumb for voting against their own interests so can we skip that part?

[Unelectable Bystander]

I couldn’t care less who wins in West Virginia as the winner will win by 1.5 million votes, but Wasserman doesn’t need to throw a passive aggressive temper tantrum about it by repeatedly calling him Trump-endorsed lol.

Also I imagine people will call them dumb for voting against their own interests so can we skip that part?

How on Earth is that a tantrum on Wasserman's part?  Noting that he's Trump-endorsed is certainly a pertinent comment, since one of the big questions in this election is how much Trump's endorsements will matter.

Saying it once is very pertinent since it helps to identify the candidates but if you look at the thread he repeatedly makes it a good vs bad moral dilemma, as he often does to rile up his following. This would be fine for a partisan reporter  but doing it as a supposedly neutral entity  is not good

[Unelectable Bystander]

The big takeaway here is that West Virginia republican turnout was supercharged by a very hotly contested race. Don’t read too far into their advantage over D primary turnout

[Unelectable Bystander]

I’m not very familiar, what are the coalitions in this race? Herbster is like Mandel with hardcore conservative rurals, Lindstrom is like Dolan with urban areas, and Pillen is like Vance being acceptable everywhere and dominating a few random spots?

[Unelectable Bystander]

538 is liveblogging tonight's results: https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/pa-nc-primary-elections-2022/

Everybody exhale, the wizards are here

[Unelectable Bystander]

As more rural Kentucky comes in, you'll see Booker do worse in his primary. That's an indication of dissatisfied voters who are locked into voting in their registered (but not necessarily preferred) party's primary.

Bye bye Charles. No amount of disinformation can save you from embarrassment

[Unelectable Bystander]

Wasserman called NC for Budd.

Lol after 6 minutes

[Unelectable Bystander]

McCrory got obliterated, he's barely getting "some dude" level numbers.

Was Budd the Trump candidate and Mcrory the establishment pick?

Yes, Trump endorsed Budd.

I think North Carolina is a state where having the Trump aligned candidate is certainly an advantage. Polarization memes aside, it is actually a get-out-the-vote state being more liberal than average but also very conservative. This should help to realign the rural areas

[Unelectable Bystander]

I’m moving PA to the furthest left of the 4 most competitive seats

[Unelectable Bystander]

It stands to reason that McCormick would do much better with the early votes whereas Barnette would do much worse which explains the current results

Yep I’m not sure what to make about this. Is it good for Oz that he’s netting a lot of votes over Barnette in the early vote, which isn’t his specialty? Is it good for Barnette that she’s not getting crushed too badly?

[Unelectable Bystander]

Are these all early votes? I assume McCormick will get nothing on Election Day due to Trumpers and grassroots showing up. If that’s the case then these margins aren’t enough for him

[Unelectable Bystander]

I think Oz looks to be in better position based on his relative strength in the urban/suburban early vote and his crushing margins in a few of the counties

[Unelectable Bystander]

The thought of weird celebrity doctor guy against down-to-earth John is concerning and sounds like a recipe for crap margins in rural PA. What’s even more concerning is if he teaches democrats how to not antagonize working class voters

[Unelectable Bystander]

Wasserman is calling it for NOT Barnette

[Unelectable Bystander]

Why is Oz some kind of titan in Philly and NE PA?

[Unelectable Bystander]

Also for a sweep and an uncontested governors race and three congressionals the democrats are spot on for turnout with the republicans

That's good news for Democrats, right? That means maybe Dem voters aren't too disillusioned to vote this year?

I’m not sure where this is coming from, I have R’s receiving like 150k more votes in PA

[Unelectable Bystander]

Also for a sweep and an uncontested governors race and three congressionals the democrats are spot on for turnout with the republicans

That's good news for Democrats, right? That means maybe Dem voters aren't too disillusioned to vote this year?

I’m not sure where this is coming from, I have R’s receiving like 150k more votes in PA

Going off NYT, which has democrats at 89% in and 1,097,240 and GOP at 92% in with 1,223,563 time of writing. Math it out you get 1,232,854 as a supposed total for Dems in a much less compatible primary and republicans with 1,329,960 supposed total. It’s a big gap, but republicans had a lot more offices to vote on then democrats did as the governors, senate, and lieutenant governor races have all turned to blow outs while for republicans all of those have been hotly contested.

It’s not a one to one but it shows a decent sign for democrats

Fair enough

[Unelectable Bystander]

A) Does this mean people like Budd and Vance had more to do with their own success than they’re getting credit for

B) So is it possible that it is roughly tied and then some last minute mail-in ballots win it for McCormick? That would be a catastrophic outcome because some of the Trumpers might boycott the general if they think the system is rigged