AZ-SEN 2022 Megathread: Mastering the Art of the Thiel

[Unelectable Bystander]

Could he not refrain from spending half the letter talking about voter fraud? It’s also irresponsible talking about Brnovich like that, now a few people may completely refuse to show up for him if he wins

[Unelectable Bystander]

Smart move and one which I obviously agree with. At the same time, I have some doubts that some of these more economically moderate candidates (Vance, Masters, etc.) is too good to be true and that they'll end up voting with McConnell 90% of the time. At the same time, if my doubts are incorrect which I hope they are, then the era of leaving the working class to starve is over.

These folks are handpicked by Thiel, who is probably more conservative economically (and culturally lol) than McConnell. I would temper your expectations.

Trump has been backing a lot of ritzy elitist types. It makes the already laughable notion of Republicans being anti-establishment even more of a joke. Trumpism isn't a long-term coalition. As dumb as his voters are, eventually they'll be forced to see through the lie.

It is funny to consider, especially as Bilderberg goes on now with the titans of industry and government. Vance attended a few years ago. sinema is there now! And tbt to Stacey Abrams. A real hodgepodge. But all in the club.

I’m curious to hear from the “Trump Democrats” on this. How much of your voting is based on the potential influence of people like Masters and Vance in the party? For example, if they do turn out to be McConnell puppets instead of economic moderates, would you respond by: voting D? Sitting out? Continuing to support particular candidates in the primaries?

[Unelectable Bystander]

This is pretty interesting, as Masters is one of very few Republican candidates who’s trying to make government overreach in the context of COVID-19 a key theme of his campaign. He’s also pivoting away from Trump -

After a bruising primary campaign, Arizona Republican Senate nominee Blake Masters and his team are seeking to center his general election against Democratic incumbent Sen. Mark Kelly on what they term as “cultural issues,” immigration, inflation and COVID-19, among other topics.

A recent Masters speech at a Turning Point Action event, where he was joined by GOP gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, suggests he sees latent frustration at the lockdowns and mask mandates of two years ago as an issue that could attract voters in November.

Masters never once mentioned politically divisive former President Donald Trump, whose endorsement he promoted until winning the Republican primary. Instead, he talked about the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's new COVID-19 guidelines, which eliminate isolation restrictions for unvaccinated people.

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2022/08/20/senate-hopeful-blake-masters-aims-government-overreach-covid-19/10341704002/

It’s malpractice that we’re not seeing more R’s hammer the covid issue. I know it’s settled, but they resoundingly won the debate. Democrats, on the other hand, will smartly talk an issue into oblivion if they feel they have the upper hand. We need less vengeful toxicity towards people like Fauci and more proposals like “the government mandate protection act”, particularly in places like Arizona and Nevada.

We’ll see if they’re smart enough to use the student loans situation to an advantage. They should be portraying Biden as a good ol’ boy giving out checks to upper middle class white yuppie’s while the economy is bad. Instead we’ll probably see more lines like “vote for me to reduce inflation!” as if voters will think republicans are magical inflation specialists

[Unelectable Bystander]

This is pretty interesting, as Masters is one of very few Republican candidates who’s trying to make government overreach in the context of COVID-19 a key theme of his campaign. He’s also pivoting away from Trump -

After a bruising primary campaign, Arizona Republican Senate nominee Blake Masters and his team are seeking to center his general election against Democratic incumbent Sen. Mark Kelly on what they term as “cultural issues,” immigration, inflation and COVID-19, among other topics.

A recent Masters speech at a Turning Point Action event, where he was joined by GOP gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, suggests he sees latent frustration at the lockdowns and mask mandates of two years ago as an issue that could attract voters in November.

Masters never once mentioned politically divisive former President Donald Trump, whose endorsement he promoted until winning the Republican primary. Instead, he talked about the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's new COVID-19 guidelines, which eliminate isolation restrictions for unvaccinated people.

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2022/08/20/senate-hopeful-blake-masters-aims-government-overreach-covid-19/10341704002/

It’s malpractice that we’re not seeing more R’s hammer the covid issue. I know it’s settled, but they resoundingly won the debate. Democrats, on the other hand, will smartly talk an issue into oblivion if they feel they have the upper hand. We need less vengeful toxicity towards people like Fauci and more proposals like “the government mandate protection act”, particularly in places like Arizona and Nevada.

We’ll see if they’re smart enough to use the student loans situation to an advantage. They should be portraying Biden as a good ol’ boy giving out checks to upper middle class white yuppie’s while the economy is bad. Instead we’ll probably see more lines like “vote for me to reduce inflation!” as if voters will think republicans are magical inflation specialists

You really don't understand *who* exactly has college loans, do you? This is exactly the type of tone-deafness that will hurt Republicans even more with constituencies that are trending against them (not just college+ whites, but minorities, young people, etc.)

I’m not going to argue about the realities of the issue itself on this thread, but I did not say that’s the reality. I said that’s what they should make the perception. Regardless, there’s not some huge pool of swing voters who are college educated with loans currently. That’s an extremely small subset of the voting population and the vast majority are already hostile to republicans. Of the ones that aren’t, many are already partisan republicans.

Meanwhile, I can think of several angles republicans can use it;

1. Driving a wedge with middle-aged college educated voters that already paid loans off. I personally know of two democrats in this boat that were angered by the idea. It’s not just some fringe group

2. Driving a wedge with voters of all races that never attended college. This is also one of the most “undecided” subgroups according to multiple polls

3. Having a concrete example to campaign on Biden ignoring inflation. Regardless of if it’s actually contributing to inflation, voters associate inflation with handing out free money.

4. Changing the subject of debate, and hoping the media keys in on the annoying Twitter libs that are complaining about wanting more (another thing I’ve heard even democrats be exasperated by)

[Unelectable Bystander]

This is pretty interesting, as Masters is one of very few Republican candidates who’s trying to make government overreach in the context of COVID-19 a key theme of his campaign. He’s also pivoting away from Trump -

After a bruising primary campaign, Arizona Republican Senate nominee Blake Masters and his team are seeking to center his general election against Democratic incumbent Sen. Mark Kelly on what they term as “cultural issues,” immigration, inflation and COVID-19, among other topics.

A recent Masters speech at a Turning Point Action event, where he was joined by GOP gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, suggests he sees latent frustration at the lockdowns and mask mandates of two years ago as an issue that could attract voters in November.

Masters never once mentioned politically divisive former President Donald Trump, whose endorsement he promoted until winning the Republican primary. Instead, he talked about the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's new COVID-19 guidelines, which eliminate isolation restrictions for unvaccinated people.

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2022/08/20/senate-hopeful-blake-masters-aims-government-overreach-covid-19/10341704002/

It’s malpractice that we’re not seeing more R’s hammer the covid issue. I know it’s settled, but they resoundingly won the debate. Democrats, on the other hand, will smartly talk an issue into oblivion if they feel they have the upper hand. We need less vengeful toxicity towards people like Fauci and more proposals like “the government mandate protection act”, particularly in places like Arizona and Nevada.

We’ll see if they’re smart enough to use the student loans situation to an advantage. They should be portraying Biden as a good ol’ boy giving out checks to upper middle class white yuppie’s while the economy is bad. Instead we’ll probably see more lines like “vote for me to reduce inflation!” as if voters will think republicans are magical inflation specialists

You really don't understand *who* exactly has college loans, do you? This is exactly the type of tone-deafness that will hurt Republicans even more with constituencies that are trending against them (not just college+ whites, but minorities, young people, etc.)

I’m not going to argue about the realities of the issue itself on this thread, but I did not say that’s the reality. I said that’s what they should make the perception. Regardless, there’s not some huge pool of swing voters who are college educated with loans currently. That’s an extremely small subset of the voting population and the vast majority are already hostile to republicans. Of the ones that aren’t, many are already partisan republicans.

Meanwhile, I can think of several angles republicans can use it;

1. Driving a wedge with middle-aged college educated voters that already paid loans off. I personally know of two democrats in this boat that were angered by the idea. It’s not just some fringe group

2. Driving a wedge with voters of all races that never attended college. This is also one of the most “undecided” subgroups according to multiple polls

3. Having a concrete example to campaign on Biden ignoring inflation. Regardless of if it’s actually contributing to inflation, voters associate inflation with handing out free money.

4. Changing the subject of debate, and hoping the media keys in on the annoying Twitter libs that are complaining about wanting more (another thing I’ve heard even democrats be exasperated by)

Sorry bub, you're not gonna win this one. A large majority of those with student loans make <$80K a year. That IS the middle class. The only people actually upset about this are rich people.

Again, the middle class is very large, including tons of non-college graduates, and jealousy is a heck of a drug. I’m not saying it will hand the election to Masters, but it’s something he could use if phrased properly.  

[Unelectable Bystander]

This is pretty interesting, as Masters is one of very few Republican candidates who’s trying to make government overreach in the context of COVID-19 a key theme of his campaign. He’s also pivoting away from Trump -

After a bruising primary campaign, Arizona Republican Senate nominee Blake Masters and his team are seeking to center his general election against Democratic incumbent Sen. Mark Kelly on what they term as “cultural issues,” immigration, inflation and COVID-19, among other topics.

A recent Masters speech at a Turning Point Action event, where he was joined by GOP gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, suggests he sees latent frustration at the lockdowns and mask mandates of two years ago as an issue that could attract voters in November.

Masters never once mentioned politically divisive former President Donald Trump, whose endorsement he promoted until winning the Republican primary. Instead, he talked about the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's new COVID-19 guidelines, which eliminate isolation restrictions for unvaccinated people.

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2022/08/20/senate-hopeful-blake-masters-aims-government-overreach-covid-19/10341704002/

It’s malpractice that we’re not seeing more R’s hammer the covid issue. I know it’s settled, but they resoundingly won the debate. Democrats, on the other hand, will smartly talk an issue into oblivion if they feel they have the upper hand. We need less vengeful toxicity towards people like Fauci and more proposals like “the government mandate protection act”, particularly in places like Arizona and Nevada.

We’ll see if they’re smart enough to use the student loans situation to an advantage. They should be portraying Biden as a good ol’ boy giving out checks to upper middle class white yuppie’s while the economy is bad. Instead we’ll probably see more lines like “vote for me to reduce inflation!” as if voters will think republicans are magical inflation specialists

You really don't understand *who* exactly has college loans, do you? This is exactly the type of tone-deafness that will hurt Republicans even more with constituencies that are trending against them (not just college+ whites, but minorities, young people, etc.)

I’m not going to argue about the realities of the issue itself on this thread, but I did not say that’s the reality. I said that’s what they should make the perception. Regardless, there’s not some huge pool of swing voters who are college educated with loans currently. That’s an extremely small subset of the voting population and the vast majority are already hostile to republicans. Of the ones that aren’t, many are already partisan republicans.

Meanwhile, I can think of several angles republicans can use it;

1. Driving a wedge with middle-aged college educated voters that already paid loans off. I personally know of two democrats in this boat that were angered by the idea. It’s not just some fringe group

2. Driving a wedge with voters of all races that never attended college. This is also one of the most “undecided” subgroups according to multiple polls

3. Having a concrete example to campaign on Biden ignoring inflation. Regardless of if it’s actually contributing to inflation, voters associate inflation with handing out free money.

4. Changing the subject of debate, and hoping the media keys in on the annoying Twitter libs that are complaining about wanting more (another thing I’ve heard even democrats be exasperated by)

Sorry bub, you're not gonna win this one. A large majority of those with student loans make <$80K a year. That IS the middle class. The only people actually upset about this are rich people.

Again, the middle class is very large, including tons of non-college graduates, and jealousy is a heck of a drug. I’m not saying it will hand the election to Masters, but it’s something he could use if phrased properly.  

The one pill we’ve gotten about this says that the debt forgiveness is pretty popular nationwide - including among non-college graduates.

Fair enough, the only thing I’d say to that is that there tends to be a huge gap in liberal priority theories and actual implementation. BBB and covid masking (in 2021 at least) were both issues that were super popular on paper but had little effect and a negative effect in reality. But we’ll see

[Unelectable Bystander]

AZ Senate Debate is tonight 6PM AZ time
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vt7oJ1lnfro

Somebody tell Masters to make his jaw less sharp so there can be at least one Republican senate candidate that doesn’t look creepy.

[Unelectable Bystander]

https://twitter.com/JenAFifield/status/1587508163640598528

I think this is a very subtle but important point. The fact that many votes have already been cast does not lessen the importance of Victor dropping it, it magnifies it. All cohorts, including independents and probably libertarians, are more right-leaning the later they vote. There’s a very good chance that Kelly would be the majority second choice of Victor early voters, but Masters is the second choice of Election Day Victor voters. He may have eaten up some votes from Kelly but will have less of an opportunity to take them from Masters now.