Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[Aurelius]

Of course, it's impossible to explain the political view of the inhabitants of a city due to the immigrants of more than 100 years ago. But it's interesting to see these coincidences.

Strongly disagree. Most political trends are downstream of factors determined centuries ago, perhaps even at the foundation of this world. We are only beginning to understand this, but it is possible.

Albion's Seed might be the most important book I've ever read.

[Aurelius]

Economist poll of polls. I am not aware of any polls that has the race as tied

I did some quick searching and none of the major pollsters have released a tied poll. Heres the link by the way.

https://www.economist.com/interactive/brazil-2022

It looks like they're doing some overly aggressive trendline extrapolation. I wouldn't take this too seriously.

"Overly aggressive trendline extrapolation" is The Economist's entire worldview, so no surprise here.

[Aurelius]

Has Bolsonaro started throwing a fit yet?

[Aurelius]

For all the talk about of geographic polarization, which of course is still strong since Lula won this pushed by his crazy margins in the Northeast, we actually got depolarization compared to 2018.

Big pushes in favor of Lula in the Southeast, which made Bolsonaro win with 10% less in heavily populated states like SP and RJ - it was around 65% Bolsonaro victory in 2018, now it was around 55% only in those two. Not to mention MG flipping back to PT, even if barely, which is always important as 2nd most populous state.

The Bolsonaro victory margins were lower in the Center-South regions in 2022, while the Northeast only slightly shifted to Bolsonaro in comparison to 2018, but still maintaining big margins in favor of PT. Which made it possible for them to cover the Bolsonaro wins in the Center-South.

Change in Bolsonaro vote (second round) between 2018 and 2022:

Eerily similar to the US trends from 2016 to 2020.

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1587535088656449538?t=6zhxkjrRuwr1rjHEg6...
Jeremy Corbyn weighs in

Lmao

[Aurelius]

I hate how you can't find decent Paint-editable base maps anymore for some reason, but here's the best I could do with what I have to work with:



This is trend, so controlling for national swing.

Worth noting that while Nordeste moved significantly to the right this time around, that comes after two cycles of a pretty intense leftward trend. Especially impressive that in some states Haddad did better than Dilma'14 or Dilma'14 did better than Dilma'10 (or both in Paraíba's case!). So the Nordeste still came in strong for Lula. It also seems like it tends to trend toward the incumbent when there is one running, so the move toward Bolsonaro makes some amount of sense in this regard.

On the other hand, I'm not sure what exactly is happening to Amazonas: it's been trending right every election since 2010. I guess deforestation might be helping the right there, but even then isn't most deforestation happening in Pará, Mato Grosso and Rondônia? I'd be interested in an explanation there.

As already seen, Lula improved a lot in the South and Southeast. In São Paulo this seems to be a sustained gain, while elsewhere it's mostly a recovery from the PT's crash in the past few elections. The Rio trend in 2018 in particular was brutal and doesn't seem like something PT can easily recover from.

Maybe this will help.

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Category:Blank_maps_by_country

Unfortunately, a lot of them are SVG. But there's lots of PNG in there too.