NV-GOV 2022: Sisolak vs. Lombardo

[Aurelius]

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/judge-rules-in-favor-of-ballot-measure-for-open-primaries-ranked-choice-voting?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=rop

There'll likely be a statewide ballot initiative changing all elections (besides president) to an Alaska-style system where partisan primaries are abolished in favor of a jungle system where the top five candidates advance to the general and the winner is elected by RCV.

Top FIVE? What's the point of a primary then? lmao

[Aurelius]

Sisolak seems more likely to lose at this point than even Evers. He’s had trifecta his entire term but his record is really underwhelming. No big initiatives to really point to, you’d think he could have passed something like a state cap on insulin or rebate checks but nothing…

Welcome back!

[Aurelius]

From what I've heard, the Nevada State Democrats are not very well liked right now because of the COVID lockdowns and it seems like they've overstepped a bit ever since they had all the row offices and the state legislature. It's a bit of the inverse of a place like GA or TX where Rs govern like it's an R + 20 state.

The Nevada Gaming Commission had mask mandates in casinos for longer than basically any state had general mask mandates. You wouldn't think this would matter too much but, y'know, Nevada. And IIRC the state was also unusually strict on masking in general in early 2022.

[Aurelius]

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/crystal-ball-says-cortez-masto-hangs-on-sisolak-doesnt-and-dems-retain-two-of-three-house-seats

Ralston: Republicans win Governor, LG and Comptroller while Dems win all the other statewide offices.

That is some serious editorializing.

Anyway, I think Lombardo wins comfortably, Laxalt in a squeaker, Titus loses, Lee loses in a squeaker, and Horsford wins comfortably.

[Aurelius]

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/crystal-ball-says-cortez-masto-hangs-on-sisolak-doesnt-and-dems-retain-two-of-three-house-seats

Ralston: Republicans win Governor, LG and Comptroller while Dems win all the other statewide offices.

That is some serious editorializing.

Anyway, I think Lombardo wins comfortably, Laxalt in a squeaker, Titus loses, Lee loses in a squeaker, and Horsford wins comfortably.

Well, you were partly right.

Could anyone have predicted a R+4 national popular vote and also this set of outcomes? My NPV prediction was bang on, but everything else...

[Aurelius]

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/crystal-ball-says-cortez-masto-hangs-on-sisolak-doesnt-and-dems-retain-two-of-three-house-seats

Ralston: Republicans win Governor, LG and Comptroller while Dems win all the other statewide offices.

That is some serious editorializing.

Anyway, I think Lombardo wins comfortably, Laxalt in a squeaker, Titus loses, Lee loses in a squeaker, and Horsford wins comfortably.

Well, you were partly right.

Could anyone have predicted a R+4 national popular vote and also this set of outcomes? My NPV prediction was bang on, but everything else...

There is tons of vote to come from California, that NPV margin is going to narrow.

It is currently R+5.5. R+4 leaves plenty of room for narrowing. And my prediction was R+3.5, to be clear.