MD (WaPo/UMD): Hogan leads both by double digits

[Landslide Lyndon]

It's giving TN-Sen 2018.

Senators Lingle, Weld, Bayh, Bullock, and Bredesen look forward to welcoming him into their caucus!

We have been at the same rodeo so many times over the years and yet some people never learn.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I would imagine most of those undecided voters would come home to Ds and again, 49/50 is a high water mark for Hogan at this point. Both Ds only polling at 36/37 seems more of a name rec thing at this point too.

100% agreed on the name rec part, but if Hogan is polling at 49/50 that means that the D not only needs the undecided voters to come home but needs to pull away a bit of Hogan’s support as well.

This should be eminently doable, thus why it is Likely D. But it’s not the home run-slam dunk that it would appear to be in a vacuum.

I guess polls will shift as the election nears. We've seen this pattern in other senate races with popular governors running for senate in safe states as well. By September and into October that effect will probably kick in. In the end, I think Hogan will end up with around 44-46% of the vote, while Throne or Alsobrolls land around 53-55%. Would be a respectable showing for a Republican in a senate race.

Bayh started his race 20 points ahead of Young in 2016. We all know how that turned out.

[Landslide Lyndon]

(2) The Bayh-Bullock-Bredesen senate caucaus is alike in that...they're all Democrats.  It may simply be the case that moderate Republicans have more crossover appeal in blue states than moderate Democrats have in red states, which seems believable.

Senators Linda Lingle, Lincoln Chaffee, and Bill Weld agree.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Lingle was unpopular by 2012

Source?