IA - Selzer & Co./Des Moines Register: TIE

[Landslide Lyndon]

But I thought Trump triaged Iowa because it was Titanium R.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Favorables:
Biden 43/51 (-8, was 45/50)
Trump 48/49 (-1, was 45/52)

Curious that the toplines are about the same as June, yet Trump's favorable went from -7 to -1. Makes me think this may be a slightly R-skewing sample. Given the events of the past few months, I find it hard to believe it swing that much in his favor.

Approval of Trump’s handling of COVID went from -8 to -10, however.

This is true, which makes it all the more weirder that his fav rating jumped. If we were talking like -7 to -5 or something, that's totally believable... but to jump 6%... weird.

It also goes against every other bit of polling which showed Biden's favorability surging after the conventions while Trump's remaining stagnant.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Wow.
And didn't trump just recently stop advertising in Iowa?
He must have thought it was close-to-safe for him, but maybe not.

He stopped advertising because he is hoarding what little cash is left for the states that will decide his reelection (Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania). If he loses Iowa that means he has lost all swing states and then some.