2020 Poll Hype Thread (user search)
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  2020 Poll Hype Thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2020 Poll Hype Thread  (Read 192893 times)
Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #25 on: October 12, 2020, 03:46:59 AM »
Quote from: Monstro Believes in a Blue Texas & a Blue Georgia on October 12, 2020, 03:21:29 AM
Quote from: Stuart98 on October 12, 2020, 12:48:50 AM
24 hours in and I'm 💤 about these supposed disaster polls. Where are they?


Granted it was stated "24-48 hours, I'm getting the feeling it was all hype. And even then, unless it was something like a solid Biden lead in Texas or South Carolina, I feel another double-digit Florida poll will be met with as much skepticism as the Quinnipiac poll that even Democratic pundits were downplaying

I'd believe the same if Wasserman didn't confirm what this guy said. And Wasserman is hardly a guy who hypes Democratic chances on anything.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #26 on: October 14, 2020, 01:43:11 PM »
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #27 on: October 16, 2020, 10:32:04 AM »
We should be due of some national polling from Quinnipiac, Monmouth, CNN, and Fox.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #28 on: October 16, 2020, 10:35:16 AM »
Quote from: Penn_Quaker_Girl on October 16, 2020, 10:32:56 AM
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on October 16, 2020, 10:32:04 AM
We should be due of some national polling from Quinnipiac, Monmouth, CNN, and Fox.

Do you know off the top of your head when our last wave of polling from these pollsters was?

Q was a month ago. Momnmouth was pre-debate and the rest were immediately after the debate.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #29 on: October 18, 2020, 01:32:16 PM »
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #30 on: October 20, 2020, 10:17:03 AM »
ECU is one of the best polls for Republicans in North Carolina. IIRC, they are the only non-partisan poll to show a Tillis lead.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #31 on: October 20, 2020, 10:32:36 AM »
Just a useful reminder for all the people out there.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #32 on: October 20, 2020, 10:58:36 AM »
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on October 20, 2020, 10:51:11 AM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on October 20, 2020, 10:49:09 AM
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on October 20, 2020, 10:32:36 AM
Just a useful reminder for all the people out there.



Current 538 averages:

Trump approval: 42.8-53.5 (-10.7)
Trump vs  Biden: 41.9-52.2 (-10.3)

Pretty close to each other.

Why is there a big divergence with the RCP averages though?

Because RCP cherry-picks which polls uses in their averages. For example, they included the Dornsife poll in 2016, when it was one of Trump's best, but they aren't including it this year, when it's one of Trump's worst.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #33 on: October 22, 2020, 12:51:21 AM »
With 100 voters sample for every district these polls will be a) prone to wild swings, and b) almost useless.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #34 on: October 22, 2020, 10:31:34 AM »
Q national poll after more than a month.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #35 on: October 22, 2020, 12:46:40 PM »
Quote from: TopShelfGoal on October 22, 2020, 12:36:42 PM
Are we getting an Ann Selzer poll in IA or anywhere else for that matter?

Probably the last Saturday before the election.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #36 on: October 26, 2020, 02:03:57 AM »
Marist has become one of the best pollsters for Republicans due to their methodology. In a year when most undecideds are young, independent, POC, and Trump disapprovers, their refusal to push them gives Republican candidates an artificial advantage. 
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #37 on: October 26, 2020, 06:54:39 AM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on October 26, 2020, 06:42:20 AM
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on October 26, 2020, 02:03:57 AM
Marist has become one of the best pollsters for Republicans due to their methodology. In a year when most undecideds are young, independent, POC, and Trump disapprovers, their refusal to push them gives Republican candidates an artificial advantage. 

anyone know what's going on with Marist? NBC/Marist said they'd be doing a bunch of surveys but they haven't done any state polls since like what, early Sept?

Arghhh!!! I meant Sienna. I'm still confusing them two because of their collaboration with NYT. 
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #38 on: October 27, 2020, 04:49:52 AM »
Quote from: Penn_Quaker_Girl on October 27, 2020, 04:41:29 AM
Alright boys and girls, we have Marquette coming tomorrow and a couple other NYT polls across the next week.  

Anything noteworthy for today?

I don't know about today but there must be some final national polls on the way from CNN, Fox, and Monmouth .
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #39 on: October 29, 2020, 11:26:07 AM »
Good for Wasserman to call out the slanted RCP averages. I wish more people like him and Silver start saying the obvious instead of treating RCP's garbage as legitimate data journalism.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #40 on: October 29, 2020, 03:19:49 PM »
Quote from: Biden +3 in Texas on October 29, 2020, 02:51:15 PM


Who the f**k cares.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #41 on: October 30, 2020, 10:46:59 AM »
We got many polls but a big chunk of them was from trash pollsters and left a bad taste in the mouth.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #42 on: October 30, 2020, 12:12:43 PM »
« Edited: October 30, 2020, 05:37:08 PM by Landslide Lyndon »
Quote from: forza nocta on October 30, 2020, 11:45:11 AM



Why don't you just go away and disappear Emerson?
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #43 on: November 01, 2020, 09:40:43 AM »
I find it hard to believe that CBS/WP and Monmouth won't release a final national poll.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #44 on: November 02, 2020, 01:50:21 AM »
Quote from: TheLaRocca on November 01, 2020, 09:20:29 PM
Quote from: Horus on November 01, 2020, 08:50:52 PM
Quote from: philly09 on November 01, 2020, 08:38:19 PM




What does this mean?

They had Biden +14 in the last poll. Likely have the same margin. Don't want to be wrong if they publish and Trump overperforms.


It was Biden +12.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #45 on: November 03, 2020, 02:29:30 AM »
Quote from: philly09 on November 02, 2020, 10:47:30 PM


The fact that this year people started saying out loud what was obvious to everyone for years, that RCP is a right-wing hack site whose polling aggregates are blatantly manipulated to the benefit or Republican candidates, is one of the most satisfying developments of this election season.
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