Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Landslide Lyndon]

Is it really such a good idea to appoint McSally to the other senate seat just weeks after her defeat? Won't that be a giant middle finger to the voters who rejected her?
And aren't there any other ambitious Republicans who will resent this blatant act of favoritism and will seriously consider primarying her?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Ugh, MN-01 hurts. It seems there were dozens of races that were so close, within 1%.

According to Wasserman's current data, there are 8:

GA-06 D+0.9
GA-07 R+0.3
ME-02 R+0.7 (before RCV)
MN-01 R+0.5
NY-22 D+0.6
NY-27 R+1.0
NC-09 R+0.7
TX-23 R+0.6

Plus some of the close California races may move into this range when they're done counting.

There is also UT-04, which Silver has as Likely D. I'm puzzled because to my untrained eye it seems like Utah County is so heavily Republican that it may have the votes to push Love over the top.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/reidepstein/status/1060977811584962560

[Landslide Lyndon]

TBF, they might have been a more conservative generation had Clinton been election. Trump is going to do to Zers what Bush did to Millennials.

One of the few things to ease my worries under Trump is thinking about the catastrophe that would have awaited us had Clinton won. Given what we saw on Tuesday, it's fair to say that Republicans would have a real good shot at a filibuster proof majority, and even bigger House majority, absurdly dominant power at the state level right before redistricting (again), and they'd most likely win the White House in 2020 anyway. That would basically be 2009-level of power for Republicans for at least 2 years, and a Senate majority that might last decade(s).

Whatever one thinks about Trump, we really did dodge a bullet there.

The question becomes is all that worth a Supreme Court Majority. I'm assuming a Clinton win would also come with a small Democratic majority in the Senate (flipping MO, PA and WI).

Yep, for better or worse that's the trade that Democrats had to do.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Per the AZ Data Guru and the CNN maps, McSally gained a couple thousand votes today (so far).

Problem for her is it came from her best counties where she needs bigger margins

Isn't there supposed to be a pro-McSally dump from Maricopa coming up?

Yes, but tomorrow. Maricopa has another pro-Sinema dump coming up at 7:00.

That should be worrying for the pro-Sinema crowd, given tomorrow's Mariciopa dump is bigger than today's.

Well, the question is, how much did McSally improved?

If McSally is winning in a blowout, then it's worrying.

If McSally is winning by a much smaller margin or drawing even, there's no reason to worry.

Or maybe she isn't winning at all. If Sinema is +15 in an evenly split batch then she would be up by "just" 5 in a R+10 sample.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I kinda just realized. Ed Case didnt rejoin the Blue Dogs this year(he had the chance to, he never did). Is it possible that he has moved Left? Or is Ed being weird?

Who wants to join a club in which you are the only member?

Actually a handful of new Blue Dogs were elected (Van Drew, Cunningham, Horn).

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/DrRyanLove/status/1061417094326161410

[Landslide Lyndon]

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/1061432753248448512

[Landslide Lyndon]

Chill down people. There are still more than 300k ballots in Orange county and today they counted less than 1/10 of that. For all we know this batch might have been from Walters's neighborhood district.

[Landslide Lyndon]

So today we will have updates only from Arizona. Right?

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/DrRyanLove/status/1061682911555043328

[Landslide Lyndon]

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/DrRyanLove/status/1061725477046493185

[Landslide Lyndon]

When will LA update their numbers today? I want to watch Young Kim go down.

Next update from LA county is on Tuesday.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/DrRyanLove/status/1061770923563454464

[Landslide Lyndon]

Hobbs ahead by 150 votes, Sinema up 32,640.

This race is callable Imo.

What does the Arizona SoS do? How significant is it if she wins?

Very significant. Besides running elections, SoS is first in the gubernatorial line of succession. If Ducey decides to appoint himself to the other senate seat then Hobbs will become the new governor.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Very significant. Besides running elections, SoS is first in the gubernatorial line of succession. If Ducey decides to appoint himself to the other senate seat then Hobbs will become the new governor.

What if he appoints himself before Hobbs takes office? Will the current Republican SoS move up and stay until 2022?

Probably, although I think Ducey does not get along well at all with her and wouldn't do that.  Also, all but 1 of the Senate self-appointees have gone on to lose the seat.

I don't think he could do that. If he does it before his current term expires then the elevated SoS will just finish the rest of his current term. When the day comes for the governor to be sworn in for the new term then the newly elected SoS will take the oath.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I think McSally may be aiming for an appointment.

That would make for some nice ads in 2020: "The voters rejected her once, but was picked by the political elite to fill another seat anyway. Who is she really representing?!"

M e h. No one really cares about that kind of inside baseball. It's particularly week when the election turns out undeniably close.

Frankly I don't see why other ambitious Arizona Republicans would accept that. They will say that she had her chance and lost, and that it's time for someone new. She will probably have to face a nasty primary.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/DrRyanLove/status/1061789108912209920

[Landslide Lyndon]

Is there any schedule about what new results we are going to get today?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Is there any schedule about what new results we are going to get today?

None.

There‘s a holiday in the US today.

Actually from what I read on twitter there will be updates from Maricopa and Orange today.

[Landslide Lyndon]

The ME-2 results seem stuck at 95% with Poloquin about 2K votes ahead, what percentage do you think Golden needs with the Indies to overtake him in RCV?

According to an exit poll by a local TV station, 93% of the third party voters chose Golden as their second choice.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/DrRyanLove/status/1062078956051021826

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/DrRyanLove/status/1062114273567170565