If Simmons couldn't survive a primary against a joke like McMahon, then I can't see how an even more moderate/liberal Republican can do it.
Money.
Shays district is one of the wealthiest in the country, and he's got a lot of very strong corporate contacts from his time as a congressman. Not saying he'd win a primary, but he's a much stronger candidate than Simmons on most every level—especially seniority and ability to fundraise.
It probably also hurt that Simmons effectively ended his campaign then resurrected it. What a joke move.
He suspended his campaign when he lost the Republican convention, which was expected to be a cakewalk for him.
That doesn't mean he would have gotten demolished in the primary especially since I believe McMahon was beginning to show her...eh...colorful side more often.
Republicans were clearly in a mood for colorful candidates last year (Angle, O'Donnel, Buck, etc.).