Which of these Republicans is the most likely to win?

[Southern Reactionary Dem]

It's a tossup between Lake and Michels for me. Given the D skewed polling history in Wisconsin and just how close AZ was in a D+4.5 2020 environment, I think either one has a much better chance of winning than is reflected in polling. I don't quite believe the Oregon polls just based on the history of the state, I don't want to predict KS because they have pretty quirky dynamics in statewide races and Dems have had a recent history of slightly outperforming the polls in Nevada.