It blows my mind that people are extrapolating from a race with such pathetically low turnout. Dems are going to have a bad midterm, but this election has a small fraction of the votes of even the 2017 special elections where Dems fought in Republican seats. We see the 2020 realignment with extra apathy and a small swing away from Biden. There’s a good reason all the Republicans on Twitter keep calling back to Clinton and Obama, not Biden, for a comparison.
Collin and Denton for Cameron is a good trade.
"For every blue-collar Democrat we lose in McAllen, we will pick up two moderate Republicans in the suburbs of Dallas and you can repeat that in New Mexico, Arizona and Nevada."
You do realize that Mexicans do not only live in Brownsville but also in Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, and, basically, throughout Texas? Right now, it might appear that the "trade" is worthwhile but we are a rapidly growing demographic and Democrats have a lot to lose from writing us off - there's nothing preventing Mexican-Americans from giving Trump 60 or even 65 percent of the vote in Texas in 2024.
Not writing anyone off other than a marginal voter in the RGV who likes Trump. Is there evidence urban Hispanics are voting like RGV and other rural Hispanics? I don’t see people saying that any of those urban Hispanic districts are at risk like TX-34. And I can match Collin and Denton County with diverse suburbs all over the country if we want to extrapolate, too.
Agreed with this. The Hispanic rightward swing in TX was in the RGV. Democrats absolutely need to be careful and try to reverse it, but as far as I've seen, there's no real evidence that suburban/urban Hispanics had a tremendous rightward swing (or ANY rightward swing) the way Hispanics in the RGV did. That said, I still do think Hispanics, even if just in the RGV, are a crucial demographic and Flores winning was a bad sign.
They definitely swung but not to the same extent. Just look at the precinct-level trend maps of the DFW area or Harris County on a site like Dave's redistricting and then look at the demographics of those precincts which swung towards Trump. The trend is pretty clear, if not as large. Heavy Hispanic precincts that had split 80-20 Dem before were looking more like 60-40 Dem. White voters however shifted sharply towards Biden.
