The future of Arizona

[n59690]

I am not sure if Dems will hold onto AZ if Kamala is the nominee. I'm confident it will keep trending Democrat long term for the following reasons:

1. Population growth

As we know, Democrats have a huge amount of gravitas on major cities (unless you live on Miami-Dade, apparently)

Phoenix Metro is a fast growing area.  Population: 1.4M to 1.6M (2012-2019)
with a growing Silicon Valley-like presence. Intel just started building its largest chip manufacturing plant here, GoDaddy and Paypal have offices here.

2. Statewide Dem Wins

Democrats holding statewide offices (Senate x2, S.O.S) give much more credibility to the party in the eyes of moderates and even Republicans.

Astronaut Mark Kelly (D) inherited John McCain's Senate seat, with strong donations and few opposition as of October 2021.  Trump even threatened to endorse Kelly if Republican Gov. Doug Ducey decided to run for Senate in 2022, squashing GOP's main chance for a strong opposition candidate, further continuing the prevalence of statewide Dem wins.

3. McCain Sentiment/Election "Audit"

Trump and McCain were not friends. Even a lot of young Democrats respect and to a point, honor McCain's name. In a political climate overtaken by Trump politics, let's say it's not a good combo.

It doesn't help that there's a bipartisan (but mostly Democrat) opposition to the Election Audit (made in an effort to legitimize Trump's claims). The audit found no significant difference in vote totals, also receiving an  almost unanimous punishment by local media since the start (think something like Biden and Afghanistan on national media)

2024:

Lean R with Kamala vs DeSantis
D +2 gain if Kamala vs Trump
D +1 gain if Biden vs DeSantis
D +4 gain if Biden vs Trump

I think Arizona will shift D by  at least+6 points coming 2028.