The future of Arizona

[Roll Roons]

As we all know, Arizona narrowly voted for Biden last year - only the second time it has gone blue for president since 1948.

What happens this decade and beyond? Will it eventually become reliably Democratic like Colorado and Virginia or remain a perennial swing state? Or was Biden's victory there a complete fluke like Indiana in 2008?

[Cyrusman]

To me it will continue to be a pink state for the next 5-10 years at least. A state that leans R but not at solid level by any means. Trump was a bad fit for the state in my opinion.

Keep in mind Biden won independents decisively in Arizona, won 5-10% of republicans, had a great turnaround amongst the democrats base, and barely won AZ by 11,000 votes. Oh and this was all while Trump talked sh**t about McCain for 5 years who happens to be the most popular politician in the states history. Cindy McCain’s endorsement of Biden also helped a lot with moderate women. Honestly I’m a firm believer Trump hold on to Arizona if he just kept his mouth shut about McCain.

A more “polite” normal Republican can absolutely win the state back. I mean if the GOP nominee wins independent voters AZ probably wouldn’t even be that close.
Also Arizona people are very libertarian minded in the sense that they do not like big government, like their guns, and Arizona also had a very westerny/ cowboy culture.

In terms of the people moving there you have both left leaning people; and also right leaning people who are leaving liberal California, therefore I don’t think people moving there is similar to Virginia for example in which you had a lot of government DC workers moving there.

Colorado’s culture is very different that Arizona. Colorado is much more hippy oriented, and environmentalists play a much bigger role in Colorado  than Arizona. Not to mention Colorado is more socially liberal. The state legalized weed when no where else did.

[Crucial_Waukesha]

As I just noted in another thread, there are a few different paths it could take.

Increasing Dem support in suburban areas and among college-educated whites, along with a slow but steady increase in Dem-leaning nonwhite voters, suggests that it will at least remain competitive. For that reason I *don't* think it will be an '08 Indiana-style fluke. However, I could see it being like an '08 North Carolina-style fluke: barely swings D in one election, then stubbornly stays with the GOP by 1-4 points for multiple election cycles afterward.

Another alternative is that it becomes like its neighbor Nevada: titanium tilt D, never safe but never quite moving back into the GOP column. That seems more likely to me at the present time than a VA/CO shift to solid-blue status; the shifts in those states doesn't exactly parallel AZ, as noted by the above poster.

[Xing]

Biden’s win was absolutely not a fluke. Basically, I see it as either being kind of the reverse of Wisconsin, as in it has now become a swing state that is winnable for Democrats, but its trend will slow or stall, keeping it competitive. Or, it will slowly drift further left, perhaps not completely out of reach for Republicans, but an increasingly hard state for them to win.

[Schiff for Senate]

It will be competitve on the presidential level for the next decade, at least. Remember Biden won narrowly, and because he carried Maricopa County. A significant bloc of voters there are suburbanite Trump/Biden voters, and if the 2024 GOP nominee isn't Trump, then I could see Maricopa (and Arizona) flip red, though it's not especially likely even if the nominee isn't Trump (if it is Trump then I'd guess AZ stays blue for sure). My ''hot take'' about 2022 is that the Arizona governership doesn't change hands.

But what really interests me is why people get so hung up on GA and not AZ - maybe GA will zoom to the left of AZ, but right now, in truth, AZ is to the left of GA. AZ voted to the left of GA, and it elected a Democratic senator before GA. It elected Mark Kelly by more than Warnock and Ossoff were elected. The reason Warnock and Ossoff were publicized is because their elections resulted in who controlled the senate. If that weren't the case I think I can see Perdue holding his seat, and maybe Loeffler as well. Also, AZ's House delegation is actually 5-4 for the Democrats, while the GA delegation is 8-6 for the GOP. In addition, I'd guess that the Democrats can't pick up another seat in GA, while in AZ, there are three suburban, Republican-held seats, and I can see one (Shweikert's) possibly changing hands if redistricting is good to the Democrats (AZ is one of the few GOP-held states with an independent commission). And lastly, GA has a 103-77 majority for the GOP in its House of Representatives, while the Arizona House is much closer, with a 31-29 advantage for the GOP (and again, if the 2020 redistricting round favours Democrats, it could end up in a tie or even go into Democratic hands).

 Yes, GA's trending leftward, but I think that the suburbs might soon enough basically 'max-out' for the Democrats (though they might continue to grow), while the Phoenix suburbs still have a lot of room for Democratic growth, and once the Democrats fully tap into the suburban voters of Maricopa County, they can win just about any statewide election. Arizona's secret is that while GA has Atlanta, outside the Atlanta metropolitan area, there's very little Democratic support outside Southwest GA (and it's waning - GA02 is only D+4 according to its CPVI) and a few urban counties (like Athens-Clarke), while in Arizona, the Phoenix metropolitan area can continue shifting to the left, and there are many other Democratic pockets of strength - AZ01, in rural Northeast Arizona, is represented by Democrat Tom O'Halleran and is a Trump/Biden district (this Democratic strength can be explained by a large Native American population); AZ02, in Southeast Arizona, similarly went for Biden and is held by a Democrat (Ann Kirkpatrick); and lastly, AZ03, based in Tucson and southwestern Arizona (including much of the Mexico/Arizona boder) is heavily Democratic (being held by a Democrat, Raul Grijalva, and being won by Biden by 27 points). If AZ Democrats can just tap into suburban voters, they could win 3 suburban GOP districts at some point - and if they do, the delegation'd be 8-1, for the Democrats (even if they win just one, David Shweikert's 6th district, which went for Trump by only 4 points, that'd make the delegation 6-3 for the Democrats). About GA, I'd add that the Republicans (who control redistricting) could easily draw out Carolyn Bourdeaux by reddening her district and including more Trump 2020 areas instead of Biden 2020 areas.

[If my soul was made of stone]

The AZ-GA comparison is a bit misguided. Metro Phoenix holds about 10% more of Arizona's population than Metro Atlanta does of Georgia's, and the Phoenix and Tucson metros together hold almost 80% of the state's population. Rural areas and smaller metros hold much more of the balance of power in Georgia's alignment; even with the same Atlanta numbers, Biden could not have won the state without his considerable improvements in Augusta, Columbus, Macon, Savannah, and so on. The shifts in Arizona outside of Maricopa and Pima were negligible, and Yuma, the next-most metropolitan county in the state, actually swung a decent amount towards Trump. A winning coalition in Arizona is thus much more centralized, but without quite the massive raw vote margins coming out of Black urban areas that there is in Georgia (or the same drastic demographic change) more leverage is required with more conservative suburbanites, hence Sinema and Biden tying themselves to McCain. Improving with conservative suburbanites also helped much in Georgia, of course, and is one of the big reasons why Biden managed to improve so much on Stacey Abrams' showing in 2018, but it's one demographic consideration among many there (especially since Georgia is far less white).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The AZ-GA comparison is a bit misguided. Metro Phoenix holds about 10% more of Arizona's population than Metro Atlanta does of Georgia's, and the Phoenix and Tucson metros together hold almost 80% of the state's population. Rural areas and smaller metros hold much more of the balance of power in Georgia's alignment; even with the same Atlanta numbers, Biden could not have won the state without his considerable improvements in Augusta, Columbus, Macon, Savannah, and so on. The shifts in Arizona outside of Maricopa and Pima were negligible, and Yuma, the next-most metropolitan county in the state, actually swung a decent amount towards Trump. A winning coalition in Arizona is thus much more centralized, but without quite the massive raw vote margins coming out of Black urban areas that there is in Georgia (or the same drastic demographic change) more leverage is required with more conservative suburbanites, hence Sinema and Biden tying themselves to McCain. Improving with conservative suburbanites also helped much in Georgia, of course, and is one of the big reasons why Biden managed to improve so much on Stacey Abrams' showing in 2018, but it's one demographic consideration among many there (especially since Georgia is far less white).

Biden didn't actually improve much on Stacey Abrams' 2018 performance, but then again he didn't need to, since she very nearly won. But quasi-pedantry aside, you are quite correct.
It's worth noting that very few areas in AZ gave Trump margins he won in many areas of rural GA, and the same holds for Biden and the heavily black parts of Metro Atlanta. Downtown Pheonix and Latino areas in and around Maricopa may be Dem but they aren't that Dem.

[If my soul was made of stone]

The AZ-GA comparison is a bit misguided. Metro Phoenix holds about 10% more of Arizona's population than Metro Atlanta does of Georgia's, and the Phoenix and Tucson metros together hold almost 80% of the state's population. Rural areas and smaller metros hold much more of the balance of power in Georgia's alignment; even with the same Atlanta numbers, Biden could not have won the state without his considerable improvements in Augusta, Columbus, Macon, Savannah, and so on. The shifts in Arizona outside of Maricopa and Pima were negligible, and Yuma, the next-most metropolitan county in the state, actually swung a decent amount towards Trump. A winning coalition in Arizona is thus much more centralized, but without quite the massive raw vote margins coming out of Black urban areas that there is in Georgia (or the same drastic demographic change) more leverage is required with more conservative suburbanites, hence Sinema and Biden tying themselves to McCain. Improving with conservative suburbanites also helped much in Georgia, of course, and is one of the big reasons why Biden managed to improve so much on Stacey Abrams' showing in 2018, but it's one demographic consideration among many there (especially since Georgia is far less white).

Biden didn't actually improve much on Stacey Abrams' 2018 performance, but then again he didn't need to, since she very nearly won. But quasi-pedantry aside, you are quite correct.
It's worth noting that very few areas in AZ gave Trump margins he won in many areas of rural GA, and the same holds for Biden and the heavily black parts of Metro Atlanta. Downtown Pheonix and Latino areas in and around Maricopa may be Dem but they aren't that Dem.

1.6 points isn't that much in an absolute sense, sure but in a state as polarized as Georgia it's massive.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The AZ-GA comparison is a bit misguided. Metro Phoenix holds about 10% more of Arizona's population than Metro Atlanta does of Georgia's, and the Phoenix and Tucson metros together hold almost 80% of the state's population. Rural areas and smaller metros hold much more of the balance of power in Georgia's alignment; even with the same Atlanta numbers, Biden could not have won the state without his considerable improvements in Augusta, Columbus, Macon, Savannah, and so on. The shifts in Arizona outside of Maricopa and Pima were negligible, and Yuma, the next-most metropolitan county in the state, actually swung a decent amount towards Trump. A winning coalition in Arizona is thus much more centralized, but without quite the massive raw vote margins coming out of Black urban areas that there is in Georgia (or the same drastic demographic change) more leverage is required with more conservative suburbanites, hence Sinema and Biden tying themselves to McCain. Improving with conservative suburbanites also helped much in Georgia, of course, and is one of the big reasons why Biden managed to improve so much on Stacey Abrams' showing in 2018, but it's one demographic consideration among many there (especially since Georgia is far less white).

Biden didn't actually improve much on Stacey Abrams' 2018 performance, but then again he didn't need to, since she very nearly won. But quasi-pedantry aside, you are quite correct.
It's worth noting that very few areas in AZ gave Trump margins he won in many areas of rural GA, and the same holds for Biden and the heavily black parts of Metro Atlanta. Downtown Pheonix and Latino areas in and around Maricopa may be Dem but they aren't that Dem.

1.6 points isn't that much in an absolute sense, sure but in a state as polarized as Georgia it's massive.

In 2010, 2014, and 2018 the Democratic candidates for governor all improved at least 1.9 points in terms of statewide vote share compared to the previous year, and in 2018 Abrams grew the Dem vote by a number twice as large as Biden did in 2020.
However if you look at presidential-level results, 2020 saw the biggest increase in D vote share since 2008. So I guess it's a matter of yardsticks.

[DS0816]

As we all know, Arizona narrowly voted for Biden last year - only the second time it has gone blue for president since 1948.

What happens this decade and beyond? Will it eventually become reliably Democratic like Colorado and Virginia or remain a perennial swing state? Or was Biden's victory there a complete fluke like Indiana in 2008?

I touched on this topic here:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=441838.msg8079566#msg8079566

[Non Swing Voter]

I think it really depends if the GOP wants to follow the path that they were on pre-Trump or keep on the Trump train. 

If they follow the pre-Trump path I think it will be a swing state for the next 20 years.

If they stay on the Trump train it joins Colorado and Virginia. 

Arizona isn't as diverse as Texas so Democrats can't just rely on demographic changes. 

[ultraviolet]

I don’t see it becoming a blue state that soon, cause the retirees are gonna keep pouring in

[Cyrusman]

Keep in mind while they are close Geography wise
Arizona culturally is very very different than Colorado
Colorado is slowly turning into a mini Oregon/Washington
People there are just naturally way more progressive and big on environmental issues

[Redban]

To me it will continue to be a pink state for the next 5-10 years at least. A state that leans R but not at solid level by any means. Trump was a bad fit for the state in my opinion.

Keep in mind Biden won independents decisively in Arizona, won 5-10% of republicans, had a great turnaround amongst the democrats base, and barely won AZ by 11,000 votes. Oh and this was all while Trump talked sh**t about McCain for 5 years who happens to be the most popular politician in the states history. Cindy McCain’s endorsement of Biden also helped a lot with moderate women. Honestly I’m a firm believer Trump hold on to Arizona if he just kept his mouth shut about McCain.

Also -- the Senate race wasn't favorable to the Republicans. Democrats had a cool, charismatic candidate in former astronaut Mark Kelly. In contrast, McSally had a lot of heat.

[THG]

The next Florida or Iowa. Essentially, a pure tossup.

[MarkD]

I think for the next couple of elections, AZ will remain a perennial swing state. But by 2032 it will start being as reliably Democratic as Colorado and Virginia are now.

[GregTheGreat657]

It will stay a swing state in most situations, although a state moderate Republicans would win easily, and then turn into a blue state.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AZ is gone for the Rs

[THG]

Keep in mind while they are close Geography wise
Arizona culturally is very very different than Colorado
Colorado is slowly turning into a mini Oregon/Washington
People there are just naturally way more progressive and big on environmental issues

Yes. People moving from California into Arizona are much more moderate compared to most of the people moving into the Denver area.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

I believe conservative CA transplants moving into places like Mohave county will save the GOP there, much like how northeast boomers moving into St Johns and Volusia helped save the FL GOP.

[progressive85]

I know of a gay couple with twins that just moved to AZ despite once finding it to not be a suitable place to raise their family, but now that AZ is evolving, they are liking it.

AZ will be a swing state for sure, until it's a blue state, but it's days of being red red red are over over over.

[Agonized-Statism]

Will probably follow the Texas path of being a swing state until it's not, only faster. Democrats will need to keep maxing out turnout to be confident in their wins here for the next election or two. The Wisconsin analogy someone here made is pretty good.

[Make America Grumpy Again]

I see it becoming a swing state at least through the 2030s, although whether or not it will becoming solidly Democratic will depend on the strength of Maricopa county. While Phoenix is a reliably Democratic city, the county has ultraconservative suburban and rural areas, which outweighed the county until Biden. If Phoenix grows, I can see Arizona becoming the next Colorado or Oregon, otherwise I think it will end up like a 20th century version of Missouri or Ohio, where it votes for the winner. Demographically I think the influx of moderate-conservative voters from California as well as Midwest/Western retirees could slow down the states Dem trend similar to Nevada, but I don't think it will become the conservative stronghold it was through most of the 20th century. I see senators like McCain, Flake, and Sinema representing the future and the state becoming at least a short-term hub for moderates. The Goldwater and Meecham days are over, but I don't think we'll be seeing politicians like Bernie or AOC, unless Phoenix grows to the size of Denver.

[Padfoot]

I think there are three major factors that will determine which way it goes and no one seems to have addressed them so far:

1. The Big Lie & associated audit

To me it seems that the GOP is currently poisoning its brand with the audit and it could be a huge double whammy for them.  The whole thing is turning off independents, moderates, and the remaining non-Kool-aid Republicans so they could punish the party by either not voting or moving towards the Democrats.  On top of that, when the audit fails to deliver on its promises I can see a lot of the diehard supports choosing to stop voting if they truly believe its rigged and their vote won't matter.

2. Outsized influence of older voters

I don't have any real analysis of my own here but I feel like we can't talk about Arizona's political future unless we address how this block votes.

3. The western water crisis

I think this is the most difficult thing to predict because Mother Nature plays such a huge role in addition to the political actors.  I also don't really know what the politics of this issue stand right now.  I would imagine that most Democrats are publicly for more drastic conservation efforts whereas Republicans may privately recognize the problem but continue to publicly deny that things need to change that dramatically in order to sustain current usage levels.

[Minnesota Mike]

1. The Big Lie & associated audit

To me it seems that the GOP is currently poisoning its brand with the audit and it could be a huge double whammy for them.  The whole thing is turning off independents, moderates, and the remaining non-Kool-aid Republicans so they could punish the party by either not voting or moving towards the Democrats.  On top of that, when the audit fails to deliver on its promises I can see a lot of the diehard supports choosing to stop voting if they truly believe its rigged and their vote won't matter.

This is an underrated factor not just in Arizona but everywhere. The craziness does not have to turn off all Republicans but if even just a few percentage points of Republicans decide they can no longer swallow the nonsense it is a game changer.