COVID-19 Megathread 4: Grandma Got Run Over by the Dow Jones

[rob in cal]

  Any theories why a lot of states aren't seeing a big jump in deaths like we are seeing in NYC/NJ? If you look daily deaths this week in Louisiana, Michigan, Massachusetts, California, Illinois, Georgia, Florida, deaths are certainly happening, but not exploding.  the calm before the storm, or some good news?

[rob in cal]

   Any one have thoughts about what states might become the next NYC/NJ area, not in terms of total deaths of course, but in per capita terms?  For the worst case scenario overall to play out this will need to start happening. I'm cautiously optimistic that thats not occuring. In Louisiana for instance deaths have been in the mid two figures for many days now, and the rise in ventilators, at least according to the state wide website is unfortunatly going up every day, but not by alot.
   Michigan is also concerning, but I wonder if deaths there are plateauing or if its a false calm.
On the whole I'm starting to lean more optimistic overall that we are heading for the lower side of deaths due to the virus.