UK Election 2010

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Here's a new poll from YouGov on behalf of The Telegraph:

Conservative - 39% (-2%)
Labour - 26% (-1%)
Liberal Democrats - 20% (+3%)

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/gordon-brown/6231632/Dire-poll-ratings-for-Gordon-Brown-ahead-of-Labour-conference.html

Here's what swing calculators give us with this result:

UK Polling Report - 344, 223, 53, 12 (CON majority of 38)
Electoral Calculus - 348, 215, 56, 13 (CON majority of 46)

Conference bounce for the Lib Dems.

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ICM on behalf of the News Of The World:

Conservative - 40% (-3%)
Labour - 26% (nc)
Liberal Democrats - 23% (+4%)

http://www.newsoftheworld.co.uk/news/523775/GORD-CAM-STILL-WIN-Results-from-exclusive-ICM-poll-for-the-News-of-the-World.html

Swing calculators:

UK Polling Report - 350, 208, 63, 11 (CON majority of 50)
Electoral Calculus - 348, 208, 64, 12 (CON majority of 46)

The Lib Dem conference bounce appears to be coming more from the Conservatives.

The English Democrats will field atleast 120 seats. The amount they'll win? Zero.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8274384.stm

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The English Democrats will field atleast 120 seats. The amount they'll win? Zero.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8274384.stm

They actually won a directly-elected mayor in June.

Freak result caused by bizarre circumstances and the stupid electoral system. And since his election he's gone on to make a bloody fool of himself - repeatedly.

FPTP virtually locks them out anyway. They'll probably come in 6th nationwide behind the Greens, UKIP and the BNP.

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BPIX for The Mail on Sunday:
Conservative - 40%
Labour - 25%
Liberal Democrats - 22%

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1216415/MoS-poll-reveals-Gordon-Brown-worse-Neil-Kinnock.html

57% agree with Cable's mansion tax.

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BBC are reporting that Brown has agreed to debates.

Thank god! My support would have gone straight to the greens if he said no as it would have confirmed my suspicions that Brown doesn't even want to win the election.

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He didn't specify mention it in the speech today though.

Personally, I'm not too keen on a debate. It makes UK elections too Presidential and for a start "Dave" has a natural advantage.

I'm not very keen either considering Brown and Cameron already debate alot in the commons... this kinda just makes it more "showbiz". Not to mention it being on Sky, it should be on BBC and/or ITV to be fair. But, whether or not I want a debate, Sky have said it's gonna happen and it'd be worse for Brown if he said no.

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Some polls from yougov today.



This was a survey of 673 people who watched Brown’s speech.

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Some predictions about the coming election from me.

I think Labour will probably have more support by the time the election is held (probably May 2010) and I think there is a serious chance of the Conservatives winning, but with a hung parliament. I think it's safe to say Labour are doomed and won't be holding on to their majority, but there's a chance they could hold in with a minority. Even so, I doubt they'd last long after that and they may not even be able to form a government.

If you look at the polls, the Conservatives have been predicted to win in every single one of them since January 2008 as well as for many before that (With the exception of a surge in Labour support in the first 6 months of 2007), and I seriously doubt Labour have any chance of holding on to this one.

I also think this will be a good election for minor parties, especially the Lib Dems. I think there is a good chance of them roping at least 80 seats, which would give them credibility as a force in British politics for the first time since the rapid death of the party in the 20s. I also think UKIP will win seats, probably at least 3 and at the most 10, and I think there's a good chance of the BNP squeezing out a seat too.

Personally, I think that's doubtful. If any of the minor parties win anything, it'll be the Greens in Brighton Pavillion. And as for the Lib Dems, I think they'll either stay more or less where they are now, or lose a big chunk of their seats. A minority government would be VERY interesting, I think there'd be alot of "You couldn't even win properly against GORDON BROWN!? LOL!" from the Labour base.

I wonder who the Lib Dems would coalition with.

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UKIP will be lucky if it gets one seat.

So will any party which isn't already in the commons.

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Today's Yougov 40 (+3) 26 (-4) 20 (-1)

Back to square one for Labour. :/

Brown NEEDS to go if Labour sinks any lower. The party needs a new leader.

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Today's Yougov 40 (+3) 26 (-4) 20 (-1)

Back to square one for Labour. :/

Brown NEEDS to go if Labour sinks any lower. The party needs a new leader.

Alan Johnson.

Yes! A good pick! Although, personally whoever the next leader is, I think they're only going to lose in 2014 anyway...

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Nah, Mandelson for Labour leader.

Oh, that'd be fun...

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Labour will have a new leader after the election - it's too late to force Brown out now and it's questionable that doing so would work out well. It's worth noting that dumping Beck for Steinmeier didn't do the SPD much good.

I wouldn't be surprised if they got one before the election.

Neither would I, but I imagine Brown would be to stubborn to go even if every single one (except himself of course) of Labour's 300-odd MPs were calling him to resign.

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Brown has agreed in principle to a leaders' debate. The issue now is the details.

Major agreed to a 97 one didn't he and then said no over the details?

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The SNP want to play debating...

...It seems silly to have a regional party in a national debate.

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I would hope this issue is resolved sooner rather than later.

If we put the SNP to one side, SKY News could host Cameron vs Brown vs Clegg, with the BBC (or a joint BBC-ITV broadcast) could host Cameron vs Brown. 

It's not exactly fair to exclude a party which is polling at 20% from the debate even if the Lib Dems have 0 chance of winning.

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anyone here got the Politicos election guide that was postponed to last Friday and if so did it feature any pundit's predictions? I believe Andrew Hawkins of Com Res was predicting a possible 100 seat Tory majority on the radio earlier on a 10% swing

Probably one of the most friendly (to the Tories) predictions i've seen this year...

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Anyone got any predictions for how the Lib Dems will perform? Polling for them has been pretty erratic. A poll today had them at 16% (their floor?) which has them losing more than half of their MPs, including Nick Clegg. I think they'll end up getting 18% of the PV at the election.

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Gordo's good eye's apparently got problems now. Poor guy :/

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Gordo's good eye's apparently got problems now. Poor guy :/

As much as I dislike his governance of the nation, and feel he's completely out of his depth, I do feel sorry for him.

He really can't catch a break.

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Gordo's good eye's apparently got problems now. Poor guy :/

I hate to be a cynic, mostly because he's suffered with this problem for years, but I get the feeling they are softening the ground for a Xmas/New Year resignation.

I really hope so. I don't like a politicians health being politicized, but ANY leader who isn't Gordon Brown would help Labour's prospects. I'd prefer Gordon to go with any dignity he has left than fight a general election that the public already realise is the Conservative's to lose.

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The first post-conference polls are coming out tonight. So far we have ComRes/Independant on Sunday and YouGov/Sunday Times

ComRes - Con: 40, Lab: 28, LDs: 19 (All unchanged)
YouGov - Con: 41 (-1), Lab: 30 (+2), LDs 17% (-2)

I'm actually pretty shocked Labour's holding/gaining(?) support after the Tory conference and expenses this week.

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The first post-conference polls are coming out tonight. So far we have ComRes/Independant on Sunday and YouGov/Sunday Times

ComRes - Con: 40, Lab: 28, LDs: 19 (All unchanged)
YouGov - Con: 41 (-1), Lab: 30 (+2), LDs 17% (-2)

I'm actually pretty shocked Labour's holding/gaining(?) support after the Tory conference and expenses this week.

It appears to be a 'firming' of support. Some of the more recent regional/demographic breakdowns show Labour picking up a little in their core vote particualrly as 'others' appears to have fallen. There's not really much to worry the Tories.

I agree. Come election night, the only surprise could be if the Tory's majority is less than 50. Unless Gordo goes that is.

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/david-cameron/6360152/Televised-election-debate-plans-in-chaos-as-party-leaders-squabble.html

The planning for the debate(s) is chaos. Yes Gordo, you try and get the electorate sit through not one, but six debates...

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To be honest, I do not think we will ever get a debate between the party leaders unless the election result was always too close to call from a year before polling day!

We didn't get a 92 debate...