Barnsley Central by-election, 3rd of March 2011

[You kip if you want to...]

BNP candidate - Enis Dalton

UKIP candidate - Jane Collins

Two people on this list are bigots.

[You kip if you want to...]

Any predictions?

[You kip if you want to...]

70.

As in Labour share?

[You kip if you want to...]

We have a poll! Somewhat regrettably it is by 'Survation'. Anyway...

Labour 63%, Con 13%, UKIP 9%, LDem 6%, BNP 4%

I'd be in stitches on Thursday night.

[You kip if you want to...]

Labour - 64%
Tory - 15%
Liberals - 10%
Others - 11%

[You kip if you want to...]

Counting tonight?

[You kip if you want to...]

Just channel surfing and there doesn't appear to be any TV coverage. Most boring by-election ever.

[You kip if you want to...]

Tim Farron losing it on BBC News: "North Korea's marginal compared to Barnsley." No need to act like a loser too.

Then he starts banging on about how FPTP is why turn out is low beause Barnsley's so safe. As if it'd be a marginal under AV... Maybe people didn't turn out because of the lack of trust in politics. Broken promises and all that.

[You kip if you want to...]

Farron: "Labour is now acting like Trots." HAHAHAHAHAHAHA! Oh dear

He also said they spent 13 years acting like Tories, but that's really a pot-kettle situation.

[You kip if you want to...]

Tim Farron losing it on BBC News

What, again? You know, he must have a great appeal one-on-one or something (else how do we explain his electoral record?) but his party needs to realise that he doesn't come across well on the gogglebox.

No wonder the Orange Bookers have florished if Tim Farron and Simon Hughes are the best the Social Democrat wing has.

[You kip if you want to...]

Wainwright:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Bit like Henley 2008?

[You kip if you want to...]

Any minute now...

[You kip if you want to...]

The traditional awkward conversation between the winner and Alan Hope... I remember it in Witney with Dave.

[You kip if you want to...]

When was the last time a Liberal leader didn't campaign at a by-election? Also, Sheffield Hallam is 15-20 miles away.

[You kip if you want to...]

Dan Jarvis (Labour) 14,724 - 60.80% (+13.53%)
Jane Collins (UKIP) - 2,953 12.19% (+7.53%)
James Hockney (Conservative) - 1,999 8.25% (-9.01%)
Enis Dalton (BNP) - 1,463 6.04% (-2.90%)
Tony Devoy (Independent) - 1,266 5.63% (+3.58%)
Dominic Carman (Liberal Democrat) - 1,012 4.18% (-13.10%)
Kevin Riddiough (English Democrats) - 544 2.25%
Howling Laud Hope (Monster Raving Loony Party) - 198 0.82%
Michael Val Davies (Independent) - 60 0.25%

LD to Lab swing of 13.32%
Con to Lab swing of 11.27%


WOW. 6th place. Just wow...

[You kip if you want to...]

What's up next? Belfast West? Any others possibly on the horizon?

[You kip if you want to...]

Come on, "If these swings were repeated across the country":

Labour - 43.19% and 400 seats (+142)
Conservatives - 27.96% and 197 seats (-110)
Liberal Democrats - 10.46% and 28 seats (-29)
Others - 25 seats (-3)

[You kip if you want to...]

I believe this is the first time UKIP have come second in a parliamentary election.  They were actually quite close to beating the Coalition total.

I suppose Barnsley Central isn't very like most of the places where the Lib Dems have council seats (even those in Sheffield), but I still wonder just how bad May is going to be for them; their local government base could take a big, big, hit.

Couple that with a victory for no2av and there could big anxiety in the LD parliamentary party...

Oh, and the "Others" have a new member. Even the BBC newsreader had a bit of a dig at it last night:

[You kip if you want to...]

By-elections in this parliament to date:

[You kip if you want to...]

SO... just for the lols... what would happen if, at the next general election, Labour lost 7% of its vote, the LDs 41%, the Tories 64%, the BNP 48%, while UKIP gained 45% in support (percent of their raw vote, all of those, not percentage points.)

If I actually understand what you mean:

Labour - 8,006,860 (45.69%)
Liberal Democrats - 4,033,726 (23.02%)
Conservatives - 3,853,351 (22.00%)
UKIP - 1,334,484 (7.61%)
BNP - 293,146 (1.67%)

Total - 17,521,567

[You kip if you want to...]

Odds on Clegg still being leader at the end of the year have collapsed today apparently. Down to 2/1...

[You kip if you want to...]

Yes - it's just near-indistinguishable from the Tories'. It's set out in their Orange Book: Reclaiming Liberalism, whose contributors largely make up the current Lib Dem leadership. Think Germany's FDP - conservative liberalism, but with a concern for gay equality and human rights et al. Needless to say, this 4% is about right for such a platform.

Feel free to shoot me down, but the Orange Bookers in the Liberal Party seem to be more right-wing than a good portion (not all, obviously) of Tory MPs.

[You kip if you want to...]

Yes - it's just near-indistinguishable from the Tories'. It's set out in their Orange Book: Reclaiming Liberalism, whose contributors largely make up the current Lib Dem leadership. Think Germany's FDP - conservative liberalism, but with a concern for gay equality and human rights et al. Needless to say, this 4% is about right for such a platform.

Feel free to shoot me down, but the Orange Bookers in the Liberal Party seem to be more right-wing than a good portion (not all, obviously) of Tory MPs.

Isn't it a very unconservative policy to support adopting the Euro and expanding immigration to the UK though?

Yes, I forgot to mention that I didn't mean on everything. I mean, you wouldn't find many Tories going round their constituencies talking about marriage equality.

[You kip if you want to...]

I must say, the British lefties are making the Lib Dems sound so good I might just have to vote for them if I were British.

You wouldn't have said that last May. They have always campaigned on the ardent center-left, they're governing on the right wing.

[You kip if you want to...]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-1363388/What-like-despised-man-town-political-correctness-forgot-come-SIXTH-election.html?ito=feeds-newsxml

Blame the Orange Bookers.