Australian Election Prediction Contest

[You kip if you want to...]

National 2PP vote 50.9 - 49.1 to the ALP

Seats per Party, nationally.
Labor - 72
Liberal - 67
Nationals - 7
Independants - 3
Greens - 1

I think the two Independants who are former Nationals will go to the Liberals and the other one and the Green will go to Labor.

2PP vote per State and Territory

New South Wales
50.5-49.5 to the Coalition

Victoria
55.6-44.4 to the ALP

Queensland
55-45 to the Coalition

Western Australia
54-46 - to the Coalition

South Australia
55.4-44.6 to the ALP

Tasmania
58-42 to the ALP

ACT
63.9-36.1 to the ALP

Northern Territory
56.9-43.1 to the ALP


Predict the winning Party in the following seats:

Tasmania
Bass
Braddon

Northern Territory
Solomon

South Australia
Boothby
Sturt

Western Australia
Canning
Cowan
Hasluck
Stirling
Swan

Victoria
Corangamite
Deakin
LaTrobe
McEwen
Melbourne

Queensland
Brisbane
Dawson
Dickson
Fisher
Flynn
Forde
Herbert
Hinkler
Leichardt
Longman
Ryan
Wright

New South Wales
Bennelong
Cowper (NAT)
Dobell
Eden-Monaro
Gilmore
Greenway
Hughes
Lindsay
Macarthur
Macquarie
Page
Paterson
Riverina (NAT)
Robertson

Australian Capital Territory
Second Senator - Liberal

---Bonus Points---

Only count in event of a tie. You don't have to do these

Safest Seat - Batman
Closest Seat - Eden Monaro
Highest Swing - Melbourne (from Lab to Grn)
Random Upset (division must have a 2PP lead of over 15pts in 2007. You may predict 'none') - Lalor. haha

[You kip if you want to...]

National 2PP vote 50.9 - 49.1 to the ALP

Seats per Party, nationally.
Labor - 72
Liberal - 67
Nationals - 7
Independants - 3
Greens - 1

I think the two Independants who are former Nationals will go to the Liberals and the other one and the Green will go to Labor.

2PP vote per State and Territory

New South Wales
50.5-49.5 to the Coalition

Victoria
55.6-44.4 to the ALP

Queensland
55-45 to the Coalition

Western Australia
54-46 - to the Coalition

South Australia
55.4-44.6 to the ALP

Tasmania
58-42 to the ALP

ACT
63.9-36.1 to the ALP

Northern Territory
56.9-43.1 to the ALP

This is remarkably close to the actual result.

I was thinking that. I had almost no confidence in the predictions at the time either, especially not the Coalition being the largest party.

[You kip if you want to...]

I guess we all got Batman wrong for the bonus points. I don't see anyone guessing Denison for biggest wing. AV is just strange.

[You kip if you want to...]

I guess we all got Batman wrong for the bonus points. I don't see anyone guessing Denison for biggest wing. AV is just strange.

So strange that in 145/150 seats, it performed perfectly and ensured an absolutely democratic, quick and correct count and result, and in the other 5 a truly democratic outcome will be reached within days, ensuring every voter's voice is heard properly.

I know I tend to be a bit too parochial, but I genuinely believe that the AEC and the Australian electoral system are as close to perfect as they can be. Add a 151st seat (or remove the 150th) and tweak the senate voting system so people can number every box above the line should they chose to do so, and I'd reckon it'd be perfect.

It's decent, I don't really like the whole thing of the Greens getting 11.5% but only 0.66% of the seats though.