AV referendum

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I think, in the end, it'll fail by a tiny margin. I'd prefer Additional Member though.

Isn't there a referendum due on directly elected mayors too?

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I don't think IRV leads to more hung parliaments, Swedish..Look at Australia.

Isn't Australia more of a two party system though, with just the Liberal-Nats and Labor?

AV is good in 2-party system, but the UK is very much a multi-party state.

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Yes... the question is: Do you vote on all that or just the AV part?

Just AV. We can't even choose between AV and other systems. It's AV or nothing.

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http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2735

This is pretty interesting. I wonder if it'll affect Labour's support of the referendum. Both of the Milibands, Abbott and Balls are for it while Burnham's against it.

I think it's worth noting that it's Labour voters who'll be the ones who decide this referendum. Tory voters will, presumably, be pretty much against it and the LibDems will probably go almost unanimously for it. A pretty big majority of Labour voters need to vote yes for it to pass. I can't really see many Labour tribalists voting yes if it looks like a No vote could cause big trouble for the Con-Libs... although maybe Labour's not as cynical as I think.

Either way, I don't support it simply because it's an even less proportional system than we have now. I don't really like the idea of people who don't support the big two, essentially, getting two votes while the other 65% of us get just the one. If AMS is good enough for Scotland and Wales, I can't see why the whole UK can't use it. The referendum shouldn't just be "Yes/No", we should be able to choose the system. I don't like this "AV or nothing" attitude from the government, atleast offer AV+ or something. If I was a LibDem, i'd feel pretty betrayed. AV isn't what they've been campaigning for since time immemorial, so it's not exactly substantive that they've sold-out on PR once they got the slightest whiff of power.

(Rant over and no, I didn't support AV when Labour proposed a referendum on it last September)

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• It will take 66% of MP's (429 MP's) to force a dissoultion of Parliament

They must be joking. I guess that says a lot about how well they think the coalition will hold together.

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Is there any hope at all of this passing?

I shouldn't think so.

Yet the polling wouldn't necessarily indicate that it's hopeless - though it does seem quite confused. The most recent polling seems to be...
20 Dec, ICM: 44-38
13 Dec, YouGov: 33-39

YouGov reads out arguements for and against. ICM just asks the referendum question straight off.

I say anything that benefits Nick Clegg should be shot down by the British public.

The easiest way for 'No' to win this is for them to paint it as a referendum on the Liberals and the Deputy Prime Minister - "Even the Prime Minister is against this."

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Just read that Plaid and the Welsh LDs could be wiped out under AV, coupled with the Welsh seat decrease to 29...

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http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2011/02/02/is-cameron-planning-to-betray-his-party-over-av/

As if the bankbenchers would stand for it...