General Election 2010 Forum Forecasts

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Kudos to Cameron for just calling Nick Griffin a "ghastly piece of filth" and for hailing Sayeeda Warsi.

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https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view;id=2591

Is that Barking you have as a Lab-BNP (I assume) marginal?

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https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view;id=2591

Is that Barking you have as a Lab-BNP (I assume) marginal?

Fortunately he has Barking as Labour Two adjacent seats are (Lab-Con) marginals (Ilford South and Erith and Thamesmead)

Good.

Barking's the one that'll have me on edge on election night. :/

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...Ouch

Ouch as in there's rather too much blue on that map or Where's the red?

Both. I knew East Anglia was very Tory but.. damn.

Aren't Labour expected to become the third party down south?

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...I'm pretty confident that Wallasey will be a Labour hold. Hardly a toss-up.

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...I'm pretty confident that Wallasey will be a Labour hold. Hardly a toss-up.

Percentages aside the majority there is what some 9,000? I can easily see that being nibbled into. Luckily for Labour it's Angela Eagle's (somone I have alot of time for) seat

Yeah, she seems pretty well liked in the constituency.

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Bold predictions thruout... (needed to get a broader picture, had that feeling since the first one). I'd be surprised if the election really goes that badly for Labour. Though I'm aware there musta been a million people saying the same thing in 1997, an election I remember well but that was before I was internetsavvy. Still. I doubt Labour'll get routed that badly.

Agreed. They won't get thrashed the way the Tories did in '97. This election is gonna be close to '92 to terms of results I think.

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...I'm pretty confident that Wallasey will be a Labour hold. Hardly a toss-up.

I'm surprised you have Bolton West and NE down as pretty certain Tory holds.  My gut feeling is that West is too close to call (it's my seat) but Labour should hold NE.

(I actually misread the map and thought you had Wythenshawe down as too close to call!)

That was my reaction with Wallasey. It's a Labour hold unless they fall below 200 seats nationally.

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I have 2 questions:

What happens if no party achieved a majority? Will we then see a coalition in the UK and who can form a coalition with whom?

The leader of the largest party will become Prime Minister. He is likely to attempt to run a minority government, preferring longterm instability to shortterm constitutional improvising that could backfire. A coalition *might* become an option, if the conditions are just right (ie Labour-LD or Tory-LD has a solid majority but Labour or the Tories are quite far from a majority of their own) but it's unlikelyish even then.

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The first is highly improbable. The latter is impossible.

Actually, both are impossible. But UKIP actually has slightly more chance than the BNP

The BNP have more of a chance...

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There is one seat the BNP might gain if hell really boils over for Labour. There is no seat UKIP might gain no matter what.

The BNP do have a better chance at taking the Barking and Dagenham Council