The future of Arizona

[Senator Golden]

As of right now, Arizona is a very purple state. Similarly to Georgia, Arizona was a former republican stronghold that has trended dem. Now I am beginning to think that it is slipping away from Republicans. Democrats have won both Senate seats by at least 2 percent, Biden won it very narrowly, and dems have the congressional delegation majority.

Lets see what happens in 2022. If Kelly and Hobbs (I'm assuming she is the nominee) win their races then I think it will have the slightest blue hue. Biden would have won Arizona by a lot more if he didn't underperform with Hispanics and that seems unlikely to become a regular occurrence. Phoenix and Tucson are growing rapidly and continuing to become more liberal. I think a big part of why republicans have had such little luck here recently is because they run way too Conservative candidates like McSally and have Kelli Ward as their party chair.

By the end of the decade I expect Arizona to be a dem leaning state. Republicans still have a chance to turn this state around but they just aren't taking it seriously enough. I think Arizona will most likely take the path of Nevada and New Mexico as dem leaning states but it will be more elastic versus say Georgia where Republicans are completely screwed.