Democrats weren't expected to win the Senate in 2020 either

[Pres Mike]

But they did anyway

They only won because

-John McCain died in 2018, so AZ had a special election in 2020
-Jonny Isakson retired in 2019, so GA had a special election in 2020

I remember the Democratic Primary debates in 2019. The candidates were asked how they were going to govern with Mitch McConnell most likely going to be the senate majority leader. Never mind pie in the sky ideas like Medicare for All or Green New Deal

Georgia wasn't expected to be a pickup. The only realistic pickups were Maine, Colorado and North Carolina. Of course, Democrats hadn't won a federal race in NC since 2008.

Democrats were expected to lose Alabama

My point? Democrats are in a better position now than 2019/early 2020. They already have a majority and tested popular incumbents in Montana and Ohio.

Hopefully they don't spend half a billion in races like Kentucky or South Carolina again

[Pres Mike]

You are forgetting how strong the vibes were as of November 2, 2020.

Dems absolutely were expected to win the Senate in 2020, with at least 51 seats in November (as in, not counting seats won in runoffs in GA).

Sara Gideon was supposed to beat Susan Collins
Cal Cunningham was supposed to beat Thom Tillis
Theresa Greenfield was supposed to beat Joni Ernst

Additionally, races in South Carolina, Kansas, and Montana were supposed to be heavily competitive, with both sides seen as having about equal chances of winning.

RCP, 270, 538 final predictions were Ernst winning in Iowa

And after the sexting scandal, many expected Cunningham to lose

No one with any real political knowledge expected Democrats to win in SC/KS/MT

[Pres Mike]

What is this historical revisionism? There are threads on atlas that had Montana and Iowa flipping, Maine as a borderline lock, and NC with Cunningham as the heavy favorite. I got mocked on here in July 2020 for merely asking the question that Cornyn could win by double digits. (He won by 9.8% by the way)

I'm not sure "historical revisionism" is entirely accurate here - from late 2018 until early 2020 Republicans were considered favored to keep the Senate (although some of us did see potential pathways for Democrats to take control), and it was not until the spring/summer of 2020 that Democrats started to be seen as favored to flip the Senate. Although the final consensus as of Election Day 2020 was that Democrats were favored to flip the Senate, most observers probably didn't expect that kind of consensus earlier in the year.

Exactly. I explicity remember a question in one of the 2019 primary debates "How would you get anything past Senate Majority Leader McConnell"