Was Trump really on track to win reelection before Covid?

[Pres Mike]

Yes

Early 2020, pre COVID. Trump was ahead in Ohio, Florida and North Carolina. Polls showed dead heat in Wisconsin and Pennslyvania. Since polls always underestimate Trump, Trump wins fairly easily.

Between the dumb impeachment and messy primary, Democrats were on track to lose.

[Pres Mike]

Yes

Early 2020, pre COVID. Trump was ahead in Ohio, Florida and North Carolina. Polls showed dead heat in Wisconsin and Pennslyvania. Since polls always underestimate Trump, Trump wins fairly easily.

Between the dumb impeachment and messy primary, Democrats were on track to lose.

This was in the midst of a brutal primary. Also, a recession might've happened anyway without COVID, which would cost Trump even more support since he can no longer blame COVID for the recession.

There were no signs of a recessions, the economy was still strong. Just like there were no "signs" back in 2022.

Cable news likes to predict a recession because its "interesting"

[Pres Mike]

Yes

Early 2020, pre COVID. Trump was ahead in Ohio, Florida and North Carolina. Polls showed dead heat in Wisconsin and Pennslyvania. Since polls always underestimate Trump, Trump wins fairly easily.

Between the dumb impeachment and messy primary, Democrats were on track to lose.

This was in the midst of a brutal primary. Also, a recession might've happened anyway without COVID, which would cost Trump even more support since he can no longer blame COVID for the recession.

There were no signs of a recessions, the economy was still strong. Just like there were no "signs" back in 2022.

Cable news likes to predict a recession because its "interesting"

The yield curve had already inverted in late 2019.

That alone is not an upcoming sign of a recession, just like two quarters of negative growth alone is not a sign of a recession. Labeling a recession requires multiple things.

Without COVID, the odds are much greater that a recession didn't occur in 2020 than actually occurs. Its was always a low possiblity hoped by Democrats.

[Pres Mike]

I was fully prepared to let Biden lose after the 2020 primary. Covid changed my mind last minute. I would assume plenty others were in the same boat.

Why?

[Pres Mike]

Yes

Early 2020, pre COVID. Trump was ahead in Ohio, Florida and North Carolina. Polls showed dead heat in Wisconsin and Pennslyvania. Since polls always underestimate Trump, Trump wins fairly easily.

Between the dumb impeachment and messy primary, Democrats were on track to lose.

I don't think impeachment would have mattered much without the pandemic happening- of course we'll never know now. But COVID made it seem like ancient history, lol.

It really did lol