Mississippi Megathread 2023

[Pres Mike]

What time polls close?

[Pres Mike]

What time polls close?

8 Eastern, except in Hinds County where they've been extended an hour by a judge due to ballot shortages.

Thank you!

[Pres Mike]

I've seen enough. Presley wins. Despite only 0.1% of the vote in.

Why? Cuz I am an Elvis fan duh

[Pres Mike]

Three things to watch for as tomorrow's results come in:

• Black turnout, in particular Hinds County - Presley needs this to come through massively, say with Hinds at 87-90% of the combined Rankin and Madison turnout, not like 80% or less, and also good numbers in the Delta
• Turnout of the "flag people" - A lot of them feel like Reeves betrayed them by allowing the flag to change in the George Floyd aftermath. This will be harder to recognize, but if turnout looks low in George and Greene Counties (those are very small counties, but they're the only two that voted against the new flag), it might be a sign that the flag hopium may be real.
• Margin in suburban Madison, Rankin, and DeSoto Counties - Hood did well in all 3 of these, even winning Madison, but Presley is going to have to do even better to have a real shot.

I think Presley needs to hit on all 3 of these to win, or maybe do really well on 2 of them and have the third be a wash.

With 76% in, Presley has 40% of the vote in Desoto. Hood got 37%. Good or bad sign?

[Pres Mike]

Hood won 46.8% in 2019. In theory, 3-4 point swing statewide could win the election for Presley

[Pres Mike]

Still not impossible for Reeves to be under 50

[Pres Mike]

I'm afraid it'll be like Democrats house races nationwide in 2022. Over perform everywhere but lose in places you are supposed to win (New York) thus costing you victory

[Pres Mike]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1722087782917517726

Popping in on a disappointing election night to say that this really doesn't surprise me.  Compared to 2019, there's much more of an insider-outsider divide in this race (as well as Presley's focus on the "good ol' boy system".  He might as well be describing Oxford and Ole Miss.

I went to a football game in Oxford a couple weeks ago and saw tons of Ole Miss students wearing Tate Reeves stickers (and no Brandon Presley ones).

Thats something I've noticed about small towns in the south. Folks will complain all day about THEIR corrupt leaders. But when an outsider complains about the town's corrupt leaders...

[Pres Mike]

So did they just stop reporting? The total hasn't changed in several counties over the last hour

[Pres Mike]

Reeve's lead has narrowed to 53,000 votes. Presley up to 45.3 to Reeve's 53.3

Any hope?

[Pres Mike]

Reeve's lead has narrowed to 53,000 votes. Presley up to 45.3 to Reeve's 53.3

Any hope?

Hinds is has only reported 34.4% of the vote.

Yet Dave Wasserman has called it

[Pres Mike]

I really think a Beto or Warnock like figure could win MS if it was an open year. 47% in an off year election is impressive, considering the incumbent president is a Democrat. When Hood got the same result 4 years ago, it was seen as Trump backlash.

[Pres Mike]

I really think a Beto or Warnock like figure could win MS if it was an open year. 47% in an off year election is impressive, considering the incumbent president is a Democrat. When Hood got the same result 4 years ago, it was seen as Trump backlash.

Presley was probably the best candidate possible for MS, I don’t think a “Beto or Warnock” would win if he couldn’t. Especially a “Beto,” who never won a statewide election…

Your probably right

[Pres Mike]

With Jim Hood and now Brandon Pressley now out of the running, is there anyone the Mississippi Democratic Party has left in the pipeline who can make the next gubernatorial election in 2027 as competitive as they did?  Or is this the end of the road for Blue Dogs in the state?  If so, we might as well start getting used to Republicans winning the governor's mansion by the same 60-40 margin they won the lower row offices this year.  

No. Mississippi is not a growing state. It has no major city. With the population decline and blacks voting more Republican, 60-40 will be the norm