Israel General Discussion: Annus Horribilis

[Pres Mike]

In my relative ignorance, Israel has moved to a very bad place, that has the potential if the policies endorsed to form a government sever over time the ties that bind and sustain Israel from the West. Maybe the Israeli government thinks it has a blank check from the West. If so, that might prove to be an incredibly tragic misjudgement for Israel. Where it is going I don't think can stand. It's just so wrong - hubris run wild. And no, Putin, just won't do as a substitute for Israel. He probably has even a shorter half life.

I dissent.

Netanyahu has never given a rats a** what the west thinks of him or his policies. Still doesn't.

If Biden wins re-election, I hope he finally moves the US away from "Always pro-Israel" to actually "Pro peace process" and "Pro real fairness".

Honestly, Biden should just cut off acess to Netanyahu. Make him person no grata to the US but very clear its just him, not Israel.

[Pres Mike]

In my relative ignorance, Israel has moved to a very bad place, that has the potential if the policies endorsed to form a government sever over time the ties that bind and sustain Israel from the West. Maybe the Israeli government thinks it has a blank check from the West. If so, that might prove to be an incredibly tragic misjudgement for Israel. Where it is going I don't think can stand. It's just so wrong - hubris run wild. And no, Putin, just won't do as a substitute for Israel. He probably has even a shorter half life.

I dissent.

Netanyahu has never given a rats a** what the west thinks of him or his policies. Still doesn't.

If Biden wins re-election, I hope he finally moves the US away from "Always pro-Israel" to actually "Pro peace process" and "Pro real fairness".

Honestly, Biden should just cut off acess to Netanyahu. Make him person no grata to the US but very clear its just him, not Israel.

You can't simply freeze out a country's government for several years without essentially cutting off the country. Especially not when you have relationships with several dictatorships. This government definitely has the prospect to do some bad things, but worse than Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Hungary, just to name three?

Biden's hands are largely tied by the fallout from Obama's strike against Israel at the UN in the dying days of his administration.

Biden has been the most norm shattering president in a generation. From reconizing the Armenian genocide to pulling out of Afghanistan. His presidency has been vearing towards what is right, not politically expediedent.

My hopes aren't high, but if there WAS a President who could finally move the US away from Israel, it would be a second term Biden.

What would he risk? Dude isn't going to try to get a lobbying gig or boardroom job after the White House lol

[Pres Mike]

In my relative ignorance, Israel has moved to a very bad place, that has the potential if the policies endorsed to form a government sever over time the ties that bind and sustain Israel from the West. Maybe the Israeli government thinks it has a blank check from the West. If so, that might prove to be an incredibly tragic misjudgement for Israel. Where it is going I don't think can stand. It's just so wrong - hubris run wild. And no, Putin, just won't do as a substitute for Israel. He probably has even a shorter half life.

I dissent.

Netanyahu has never given a rats a** what the west thinks of him or his policies. Still doesn't.

If Biden wins re-election, I hope he finally moves the US away from "Always pro-Israel" to actually "Pro peace process" and "Pro real fairness".

Honestly, Biden should just cut off acess to Netanyahu. Make him person no grata to the US but very clear its just him, not Israel.

You can't simply freeze out a country's government for several years without essentially cutting off the country. Especially not when you have relationships with several dictatorships. This government definitely has the prospect to do some bad things, but worse than Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Hungary, just to name three?

Biden's hands are largely tied by the fallout from Obama's strike against Israel at the UN in the dying days of his administration.

Biden has been the most norm shattering president in a generation. From reconizing the Armenian genocide to pulling out of Afghanistan. His presidency has been vearing towards what is right, not politically expediedent.

My hopes aren't high, but if there WAS a President who could finally move the US away from Israel, it would be a second term Biden.

What would he risk? Dude isn't going to try to get a lobbying gig or boardroom job after the White House lol

If you want to start a cold war with one of the US' longest-term allies, responsible for many of the greatest military tech innovations in the world, then we are not remotely on the same page and thankfully Joe Biden has no interest in that.

And to be clear, if he took things too far to endanger that relationship long-term, he would be stopped by his own party.

In my relative ignorance, Israel has moved to a very bad place, that has the potential if the policies endorsed to form a government sever over time the ties that bind and sustain Israel from the West. Maybe the Israeli government thinks it has a blank check from the West. If so, that might prove to be an incredibly tragic misjudgement for Israel. Where it is going I don't think can stand. It's just so wrong - hubris run wild. And no, Putin, just won't do as a substitute for Israel. He probably has even a shorter half life.

I dissent.

We don't agree on everything here, but you're right on one thing - I'm pretty sure Netanyahu knows he can't replace the US with anyone else. Particularly not Putin. As an "ally", Putin is a cruel parasite who bleeds his vassals dry and protects them as long as they're useful.

I imagine if there are any true red lines for Biden/the US, they'll be made very clear quickly and Netanyahu will quietly back down.

You statements are contradictory

In your first post, you claim that Biden pushing hard on a far right government led by Netanuahu would result in a cold war between Israel and the US.

In your second post, you claim that Israel can not replace the US as its most powerful backer and would back down from real red lines.

I don't think a "cold war" would occur. When Natanyahu was removed from power last year, Lapid's main argument was how he was damaging the US relationship. Israel needs the US, the US doesn't need Israel (although Israel would probably continue as is).

You are right that if Biden moves too far, his own party might buck him. Its like when Democratic senators from New York and New Jersey voted aganist Obama's Iran deal. And the pushback from the US not vetoring the UN resolution in Dec 2016.

But the Democratic Party of 2023 is far more aware of Israel's abuses compared to 2015. And several senators, inculding NJ Bob Menedez, has come out aganist possible abuses by the new Israeli cabinet.

I don't know if Netanyahu cares about "red lines" anymore. He is 72 and wants to avoid prison time. He needs his far right allies to change the law. What does he give them?

If anything, the one big thing stopping something crazy is the potenial opening of relations with Saudi Arabia. Netanyahu wants this bad, no way this happens if he annexes the West Bank.

[Pres Mike]

What was Herzog’s proposal? How is it better than the current government’s plan? How does it affect Netanyahu’s immunity?

[Pres Mike]

If Netanyahu was actually about to do something that would endanger military aid or Iron Dome supplies from the US, the IDF would coup him in 5.2 seconds, most likely.

Question here: has a military coup ever happened in a country that has been as wealthy and an established democracy (within its internationally-recognized borders) as Israel? Wouldn't that turn Israel into something akin to Kemalist Turkey?

In terms of post-WW2 coups in Western democracies, Greece 1967 and Chile 1973 both come to mind. France 1961 and Spain 1981 both constituted real attempts. In the United States during the 1960s (Operation Northwoods) the government considered the possibility of a coup to be quite serious. Turkey obviously has had many military coups.

It would be a very singular event in the history of post-Cold War democracy (and really post-early 1980s democracy), but then Israel is a very singular country with, for now, a very singular demographic situation.

Operation Northwoods was to stag false flag attacks and blame Cuba, to justify an invasion. What does that mean for a coup? Did Kennedy fear a CIA/military coup?

[Pres Mike]

Benny now calls for snap elections in September:

https://twitter.com/FT/status/1775607801911370040

Its the same situation in the UK. The opposition can call for an early election, doesn't mean it will happen

Right now, I don't see why Netanyahu's far right allies would abandon him, thus triggering an election.  They won't have any power in a government led by Gantz and Lapid