Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[Pres Mike]

My mental health has been declining these last few days. My depression has returned.I fear election night will make it worst. I feel so helpless I don't want to see democracy die.

[Pres Mike]

Chris Pappas on track to win NH-1 easily, it won't even be close.

https://twitter.com/norwood270/status/1590142499766796288

Was he ever in danger?

[Pres Mike]

What is taking New Hampshire so long?

[Pres Mike]

https://twitter.com/patdubois/status/1590006089541914624

@Brazil

[Pres Mike]

CNN calls John Kennedy winning Louisana. That's right folks, his "call a crackhead" ads put him over the finish line.

[Pres Mike]

So I guess Beto's political career is over. He lost two major statewide races and went no where in a presidential primary.

[Pres Mike]

Come on. We are so close to Democrats keeping the House and having 52 seats....

[Pres Mike]

Odds of Democrats keeping the House? CNN is assuming Republicans take it

[Pres Mike]

There should be some GOP pickups soon. Enough to win the house, although not a wave by any means.

Was it worth debasing yourself for the GOP the way you did in such a cowardly, sniveling way?

Maybe YOU need to do some soul-searching too, my friend.

Who do you think will win the House?

[Pres Mike]

When will we get any Nevada results?

[Pres Mike]

Warnock back in the lead in GA

Where?

[Pres Mike]

I really hope Democrats keep the house and win 51 seats

I think Biden and Schumer could get a deal out of Sinema, like they did with Manchin.

Promise her full party backing in 2024. In return, she’ll vote for a package that includes paid leave, child care, paid leave and public option (and any legislation sweeteners she wants) She has a tough primary. Even if she wins the primary it’ll be impossible to win in a super close swing state without 100% backing from your party.

[Pres Mike]

In the end, it may very well be a 303 map. Good job, everyone!

What is a 303 map?

[Pres Mike]

I just want McCarthy’s two years as Speaker to be as miserable as possible for him, so the thinner the majority the better. 220 should be enough of a headache for him, so I’ll take it.

Bold of you to predict it will last the entire two years

edit: fixed it

I am skeptical that McCarthy will ever be Speaker, but if he does he isn’t lasting. Boener and Ryan couldn’t control far larger House GOP and are far stronger men than Kevin. Pelosi could manage a caucus that small, though.

Well yeh Pelosi has a dick and a spine, unlike McCarthy

Yeah, Pelosi is absolutely more of a man than Trump and McCarthy combined

[Pres Mike]

If Republicans only have a 1-2 seat majority, Pelosi needs to bribe 1-2 republicans to defect. Any committee chair of their choosing. Unlimited funding for re-election in 2024

Than make a deal with Sinema to pass the rest of BBB. Just don’t raise taxes, that was her big sticking point  

[Pres Mike]

My takeaways

1. The Republican advantage in the house since 2010 from gerrymandering was broken by Democrats finally gerrymandering

2. Democrats funding whacko candidates in republican primaries seem to have paid off. But it was incredibly risky and the party probably won’t do that again.

3. CANDIDATE QUALITY MATTERS

4. INCUMBENCY HELPS

5. Bring an election denier is seen as bad by the electorate (thankfully)

6. The republicans party wasn’t able to convince the electorate they have an actual plan to inflation. Or they were going to do anything except investigations

7. The electorate is much more engaged and informed compared to the Obama years

8. Crime is an issue. This hurt in New York.

9. Florida is lost to Democrats

[Pres Mike]

When everything is said and done, there should really be an investigation on why some states take so long to count the vote. It’s dangerous for democracy yet easily fixable.

[Pres Mike]

Well, Biden will win primary very easily if he decides to run (very, very likely). He is effective leader for Democrats, relatively popular with base and relatively unpolarizating figure. There is no reason for him not to run (except health issues), and there is no reason for the base to reject him

Biden isn't that popular with the base... when compared to other Dems (he is popular compared to a Republican opponent).

He's not even winning the latest NH primary poll- I think he only has like 16% support... Buttigieg has 17% support and 4 or 5 others are spread out between Biden & Harris (who is 6th or 7th with single digit support).

And this will only continue to grow- bc the almost universal reason Dems give for not wanting him to run- is his age...  and he will be even older 2 years from now.

If Biden announces he’ll run for reelection, he’ll run unopposed. And his support from the party will rise dramatically, just like it did once he became the nominee in 2020.

Wasn’t there chatter among democrats back in 2011 for Hillary to replace Obama after his shellacking?

And realistically, who else would Democrats run? Harris and Buttigieg would lose in landslides. The country isn’t going to elect a gay man or a black women.

[Pres Mike]

If Biden announces he’ll run for reelection, he’ll run unopposed.

Probably yes, or just with token opposition.

But I still hope that he decides against running.

Than who?

While I do think Biden wants a second term, I think he would gladly step aside if there was a prominent Democrat who could win.

[Pres Mike]

Well, Biden will win primary very easily if he decides to run (very, very likely). He is effective leader for Democrats, relatively popular with base and relatively unpolarizating figure. There is no reason for him not to run (except health issues), and there is no reason for the base to reject him

Biden isn't that popular with the base... when compared to other Dems (he is popular compared to a Republican opponent).

He's not even winning the latest NH primary poll- I think he only has like 16% support... Buttigieg has 17% support and 4 or 5 others are spread out between Biden & Harris (who is 6th or 7th with single digit support).

And this will only continue to grow- bc the almost universal reason Dems give for not wanting him to run- is his age...  and he will be even older 2 years from now.

If Biden announces he’ll run for reelection, he’ll run unopposed. And his support from the party will rise dramatically, just like it did once he became the nominee in 2020.

Wasn’t there chatter among democrats back in 2011 for Hillary to replace Obama after his shellacking?

And realistically, who else would Democrats run? Harris and Buttigieg would lose in landslides. The country isn’t going to elect a gay man or a black women.

I think the country could be open to a gay man. Just not Buttigieg. My reasoning for it is that Polis had been the top vote getter two times a row in the past two Colorado midterms, and while Colorado is obviously blue, he’s still a proven winner even in some Trump-curious areas.

Colorado is a very white state

Any gay man would lose a lot of black support in places like Detroit, Milwaukee and Philadelphia.

Of course, he wouldn’t win the primary either. African Americans aged 40+ basically pick the nominee and they are the most social conservative members of the Democratic Party. The media did everything they could to make Buttigieg the nominee yet went absolutely no where on Super Tuesday

[Pres Mike]

The problem isn't that they weren't in by election day - it's that laws prevent them from being tallied before election day.

Why do Democrats across the western states refuse to change those laws?

Arizona House, Senate and Governorship are Republican controlled.

That’s one state out of like, the 5 that are having problems. Stop deflecting. Why do Democrats in CA, Oregon, Washington, Nevada refuse to change those laws?

Presumably because people in those states don't see the current system as a problem and don't care if Republicans in other states do?

But it is a problem. The rest of the country thinks it’s a problem.

The 2020 presidential election couldn’t be called until Nevada finished counting. The Arizona senate race determined control. House control came down to several races in California.

Same thing is happening two years later. Who controls the United States government affects the entire world. If votes can be counted quickly, they should. Other US states and cities count quickly. Brazil, a nation of 215 million people, counts the entire vote in hours.

[Pres Mike]

Anyone think that since 218-217 is really impossible to get anything passed in - that it’s better for Dems politically if the GOP wins the majority (at that number specifically I mean)

I've said this earlier in the thread: while I'd love to see the Democrats retain both houses, a D Senate and a bare R majority in the House is probably the best case for D prospects in 2024:

1. It allows D's to continue confirming Biden's appointments.

2. It removes any pressure on the D's to try and pass a very progressive agenda around Manchin & Sinema.

3. The R caucus will be an ungovernable clown show that regularly embarrasses itself, and can be blamed for failure to get anything done.

One advantage for the D's if they do hang on is they can keep the J6 committee going, but not having it is a minor loss.  At this point I think the committee has accomplished most of what it can do in terms of persuading the public; the DOJ will handle the criminal investigations.

Respectfully, I do not agree. I think Democrats can pass popular stuff with 218 seats and 51 senate seats. Just make a deal with Sinema

[Pres Mike]

Does Axne have a chance?

Apparently AP has called that one unfortunately. She's only down 2K but I guess there's not enough VBM remaining.

It sucks to lose incumbency in that seat. That could have made a key difference two years down the line.

Its clear that Iowa is lost to Democrats. Weird that Democrats came really close to the governor mansion in 2018 and a majoroty of the congressional delegation

[Pres Mike]

Best case scenario for Biden would be DeSantis wins the nomination and Trump runs as an Indy with his own independent slate of Senate/House candidates. I have to imagine Trump wouldn’t let DeSantis win and gracefully back him.

I mean there was reporting that’s what he threatened after it looked like party was going to throw him overboard after 1/6.

Interesting. Source?

[Pres Mike]

If Democrats fall just short, what are the odds a few republicans defections put them over the top?