Biden infrastructure/tax increase megathread

[Pres Mike]

All of the things nixed, I am fined with community colleges. They are already free for most Americans

[Pres Mike]

Apprently, Democrats are really close to a deal
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/10/20/dems-edge-closer-ditching-disarray-516312

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2021/10/20/breaking-down-bidens-latest-build-back-better-plan-494779?cid=hptb_primary_0

Obamacare subsidies, Medicaid expansion, universal pre-k, paid leave, Medicare benefits and child care are staying but trimmed down in the hope future governments will continue to fund them

Paid leave has been trimmed from 12 weeks to 4 weeks. Medicare benefits for vision, dental, hearing will start for the oldest and work there way down over the years. Childcare tax credit will only be funded for another year, with the assumption this is the most important for republicans to fund.

Free community college is out, but maybe double Pell? This is better since community college is already free for most Americans but double Pell grants would slash the amount of student loans needed. Had I had double my Pell grant, my tuition, housing, food, and books would have been covered. I graduated from a 4 year university last year.

SALT is probably out. Unknown about any climate or immigration provisions or the PRO act

[Pres Mike]

Yeah at this point, rather would have a bunch of these things on the books, even if they're watered down. Once they're in place, it's harder to tear them down versus them not being a thing at all.

Exactly

What future president is going to get rid of paid leave? Or universal pre-k?

No matter how much they cut it, stuff like EBT, Medicaid, Pell Grants are not going away

[Pres Mike]

Yeah at this point, rather would have a bunch of these things on the books, even if they're watered down. Once they're in place, it's harder to tear them down versus them not being a thing at all.

Exactly

What future president is going to get rid of paid leave? Or universal pre-k?

No matter how much they cut it, stuff like EBT, Medicaid, Pell Grants are not going away

The GOP may do away or cut some these with a trifecta and an abolition of the filibuster. However, that would certainly cause a major backlash and cost them a big price in the next election.

They already tried to do that with Obamacare and that failed spectacularly.

Exactly. And Obamacare was far more hated and far more controvsal. Republicans (and Democrats Manchin) were campaigning against Obamacare before it was even passed

I have yet to hear a single word against paid leave or pre-k haha

[Pres Mike]

lmao, I would NOT count of the GOP to be bound to any sense of political caution not to slash social programs next time they have the trifecta. The only reason they didn't slash Obamacare was because of two "moderates" and one quixotic weirdo who had a grudge with the president. The quixotic weirdo is dead and the "moderates" are on their way out, and besides Republicans have a much easier path to winning 52+ Senate seats than Democrats. We've been saved from true conservative rule for the past 20 years or so by the fact that Democrats have consistently punched above their weight in Senate races, but eventually we're going to run out of luck, and when we do, we're in for a rude awakening. Republicans don't care that their socioeconomic agenda is unpopular, because their strategy is all about diverting attention away from socioeconomic grievances with culture war bullsh*t, and this strategy has almost always worked for them. The fact that they're seen as the "party of the working class" after 4 years of further oligarchic entrenchment says everything you need to know.

You are RIGHT. Kinda

Yes, if Republicans had a trifecta with 55 senate seats, they would do a LOT of damage. And yes, Democrats have punched above their weight in several senate races and we got lucky

That said, Republicans are wary to lose elections. And they follow the cues of the business community. If these programs create the economic growth they are supposed to do, the CEO of Walmart and Amazon might not be happy if they are cut. They rather their slaves...eh I mean workers get Medicaid instead of company insurance.

[Pres Mike]

The problem is that the next Republican trifecta (will either be 2024 or 2028) is almost certain to have at least 55 Senate seats due to Dems not being able to maximize potential gains in 2020 and very likely 2022 when they lose seats again on a class that they continue to have bad luck (2004, 2010, 2014, and very likely 2022) on.

Republicans might not be able to maximize potential games in 2022 as well. We don't know what will happen.

Democrats don't have to lose in 2022

Republicans need to defend WI and PA

They will try to reclaim NV, NH, AZ, and GA

AZ and GA have very popular incumbents with monster fundraising. NV is stablish for Democrats.

NH is the big danger, but we could win easily in PA with the right person

[Pres Mike]

The problem is that the next Republican trifecta (will either be 2024 or 2028) is almost certain to have at least 55 Senate seats due to Dems not being able to maximize potential gains in 2020 and very likely 2022 when they lose seats again on a class that they continue to have bad luck (2004, 2010, 2014, and very likely 2022) on.

Republicans might not be able to maximize potential games in 2022 as well. We don't know what will happen.

Democrats don't have to lose in 2022

Republicans need to defend WI and PA

They will try to reclaim NV, NH, AZ, and GA

AZ and GA have very popular incumbents with monster fundraising. NV is stablish for Democrats.

NH is the big danger, but we could win easily in PA with the right person

If Dems can’t even win VA this year (quite possible) where Biden won by 10, they aren’t winning any of the above in 2022.

Yet Democrats have led in every poll. They have a 3 point lead on 538 and the polls actually under estimated Democrats in 2020 VA polls

Plus, its now looking like BIF and BBB will both pass by Halloween which will boost Democrats in VA

[Pres Mike]

Doing bad in the off year is not a good sign for '22, but I still think it's pretty decoupled given that it's a year away. The economy could be roaring by then. Or maybe we will be in the throngs of the Nu variant, who knows. McAuliffe might also win by a lot. I actually think that's more likely than him losing.

The political environment almost never improves significantly for the President’s party from this point in the President’s first term until the midterms.  

To be fair, there are almost always reasons for a president party to lose seats in the midterms. Also because of the buyers remorse

The electorate is far more inelastic. And the Democratic electorate is far smarter than we were in 2010 and 2014

[Pres Mike]

I feel like the apparent failure to pass the Build Back Better plan is kind of similar to Trump's failure to repeal Obamacare in 2017. Both were more or less signature promises POTUS wanted to done in the 1st year, but a narrow senate majority prevents it from happening. Both cause severe outrage at the base and leaves POTUS with declining approval ratings.

Only difference is that Obamacare repeal failed due to the GOP's lack of a real alternative (something they have failed to come up with ever since the ACA was passed) while BBB only fails due to 2 stubborn senators with an out of time and out of touch mindset.

What are you talking about?

The Build Back Better plan is on track to pass by Halloween

It will be a 2 trillion dollar investment in the safety net, largest since the Great Society. Passing it will be a huge success, not failure.

Paid leave, Medicaid expansion, Obamacare subsidiese, pre-k, child care

These are all popular with the base unlike Obamacare repeal. Even Republicans were wary of fulling repealing it, knowing thousands of stupid republicans actually get health insurance through Obamacare

[Pres Mike]

This bill is an insult. The Democrats will reap what they sow come midterms.

That very well may be the case next year, but we can't pretend this bill isn't a win

Millions of parents are going to get paid leave at last. Millions of low income people will get access to Medicaid in red states. Millions of seniors will get a yearly 800 voucher to pay for dental and it seems vision/hearing is now covered under Medicare. And Obamacare, covering 30 million Americans will remain very cheap for years to come. Millions of children will have the added benefits of pre-k. Childhood poverty has been cut in half. Maybe Pell grants are doubled, helping millions of college students.

[Pres Mike]

I don't know whether it's Trump or just social media in general but for some reason everyone's now acting like every single issue in America is a crisis that demands immediate, overwhelming force to solve, with zero regards for the future, and that politicians are the only people who have any agency to solve these problems.

No, the country is not going to collapse because your favorite agenda item didn't make it into this year's legislation.  People aren't going to starve and die without the latest and greatest welfare idea becoming law.  Biden's legislative climate agenda is not the tipping point between an eco-paradise and the flaming greenhouse apocalypse.

All of these policies are really good and would be really nice to have.  But it's not exactly unheard of for highly-ambitious legislation to get watered down in committee.  You may recall that the Republicans promised for seven years that they'd repeal Obamacare, and then when they got back in power the best they could do was repeal the individual mandate.

None of these things are immediate emergencies.  We can include them in other bills in the future.  The Biden Administration and state governments can take action on these issues without Congressional aid.  As can the private sector in many cases.  Change and progress are inevitable.  COVID was an immediate emergency and we got 100% of what we wanted in the ARPA.

So be happy with what we're getting.  It seems like it's still really good.  I'm as irritated as anyone at Manchin/Sinema yanking stuff out without much justification, but that's what a 1-vote majority is always going to entail.  Obamacare was the exact same way when we had a 1-vote supermajority and we spent like nine months arguing with a small handful of congressmen who kept wanting to yank stuff out or pull the plug entirely.  I think young people in particular don't remember the Obamacare fight so they're much more likely to freak out over this entire process.  In another 5-10 years we'll have another massive bill the Democrats have to negotiate for months to pass, and a new generation will be freaking out, and it'll be the zoomers saying "I remember the Manchin days, this is just how it goes."

Not that I disagree with your points, but you, writing such a big post just, because 3-4 idiots here say, it's a disaster, reminds me this on

https://twitter.com/theonion/status/1389997838743056388

Btw, personally I think, that Biden would be better off electorally (esp midterms), had he pushed for BIP in August and get reconciliation later. Manchin kinda [not really] promised 1.5T, and now they are talking about 1.9T. Not big diff, imo, and they probably could get him to 1.9T anyways. Though, purely speculating, haha. Pelosi knows best!

I disagree. I do think Manchin would have committed to 1.5 trillion even if BIF had passed back in august. But Sinema is the wild card. I do think of BIF had passed in august she would have not voted for anything in BBB. Zero

What I do think was a mistake was Pelosi/Schumer allowing the august recess. I know Sinema straight out told leadership she would be AWOL in august regardless if government was in session. But I would have been writing the bill with Manchin and had Sinema look at it when she came back from her Europe vacation

Purple hair bitc

[Pres Mike]

hey so when is this thing getting passed? I have been hearing close to a deal for like 3 months now

Congressional leadership is hoping for everyone to agree on a framework. Once all 50 senators are on record to support 1.9-2.2 trillion, hopefully progressives will support BIF

BIF passes by Halloween when a lot of current transportation funding expires and BBB passes sometime in November after it’s done being written.

[Pres Mike]

I also don't get the emphasis on universal preschool?  What does it accomplish?  By the time the child is 3, the parents have already found a solution to the childcare issue by necessity! 

You would think paid leave would be the #1 focus, especially after COVID.

It’s not just about childcare. Every single study shows going to pre-k at age 3 and 4 gives a child a huge head start. Statistically, they are more likely to do better academically at every level even in college and earn more money. For kids with learning disabilities, it’s a huge help and can drastically catch them up. Pre-K typically costs more than just childcare that watches the kids.

Providing universal pre-k would help the economy massively, short term and long term. The money spent on child care for those two years can be spent on other things. Long term our workers are smarter and more capable

[Pres Mike]

If BIF does come up for a vote this week, I'm very curious as to how many House Republicans vote in favor. In the Senate, it got 19 GOP votes, including both Senators from Idaho, both from North Dakota and even Mitch McConnell.

A non-zero but negligible amount.

It did it’s job in that it convinced Sinema that she was free to screw everything else up.
McConnell was pretty clear that the GOP Senate votes were a gambit to convince Manchin and Sinema to kill reconciliation and the plan seems to have worked.

The plan wasn't to kill reconciliation, it was to weaken it to the point that most Americans do not feel the effects before the midterms. Seems to be working

[Pres Mike]

https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/1452299568318754833
Honestly, these results just show how increasingly disconnected a lot of people are from reality

70 percent think we are on the wrong track at a time when Covid has massively declined around the county and unemployment is currently at 4.8 percent and dropping.

In no way, shape or form are things even close to being as bad as they were in 2009/2010 yet you would not know that looking at those wrong track numbers. Biden theory is that he thinks passing popular bills will help the Dems in 2022 and maybe something like that would have been true 20 years ago but now I'm not so sure I buy it

I think even if Biden had the greatest economy of all time Facebook and social media would still convince a lot of people that things are worse than they have ever been

I think Biden was always going to struggle with approval ratings after his honeymoon period because Americans never fell in love with him. He was just the only Democrat acceptable to 51% of Americans.

[Pres Mike]

https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/1452299568318754833
Honestly, these results just show how increasingly disconnected a lot of people are from reality

70 percent think we are on the wrong track at a time when Covid has massively declined around the county and unemployment is currently at 4.8 percent and dropping.

In no way, shape or form are things even close to being as bad as they were in 2009/2010 yet you would not know that looking at those wrong track numbers. Biden theory is that he thinks passing popular bills will help the Dems in 2022 and maybe something like that would have been true 20 years ago but now I'm not so sure I buy it

I think even if Biden had the greatest economy of all time Facebook and social media would still convince a lot of people that things are worse than they have ever been

I think Biden was always going to struggle with approval ratings after his honeymoon period because Americans never fell in love with him. He was just the only Democrat acceptable to 51% of Americans.

The media doesn't like him. He's only president because Trump really was that bad. If Biden goes the way of Carter, the only saving grace is that there isn't some Ronald Reagan out there that can enshrine a new Republican consensus.

Well, it doesn't take a new Raygun to accomplish that. Trump or DeathSantis could already win with 46-47% of the NPV and razor thin margins in a group of battlegrounds. Not saying Biden is doomed, he for sure isn't and anyone saying so in late 2021 is a hack, but it's something we need to consider.

In a realistic worse case scenario, Republicans will have the margins in both houses they had in 2014 (perhaps even 1 or 2 more senate seats) and the WH they won with perhaps Obama's margins in 2012 on 1/20/25. It would probably be the most conservative Government since the original Gilded Age. Would that necessarily mean there's a realignment? No. Maybe if Republicans could get a senate Supermajority, we would be talking but even Obama couldn't do that.

Would it be any different than the Republican trifecta from 2017-2019?

[Pres Mike]

https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/1452299568318754833
Honestly, these results just show how increasingly disconnected a lot of people are from reality

70 percent think we are on the wrong track at a time when Covid has massively declined around the county and unemployment is currently at 4.8 percent and dropping.

In no way, shape or form are things even close to being as bad as they were in 2009/2010 yet you would not know that looking at those wrong track numbers. Biden theory is that he thinks passing popular bills will help the Dems in 2022 and maybe something like that would have been true 20 years ago but now I'm not so sure I buy it

I think even if Biden had the greatest economy of all time Facebook and social media would still convince a lot of people that things are worse than they have ever been

I think Biden was always going to struggle with approval ratings after his honeymoon period because Americans never fell in love with him. He was just the only Democrat acceptable to 51% of Americans.

The media doesn't like him. He's only president because Trump really was that bad. If Biden goes the way of Carter, the only saving grace is that there isn't some Ronald Reagan out there that can enshrine a new Republican consensus.

Well, it doesn't take a new Raygun to accomplish that. Trump or DeathSantis could already win with 46-47% of the NPV and razor thin margins in a group of battlegrounds. Not saying Biden is doomed, he for sure isn't and anyone saying so in late 2021 is a hack, but it's something we need to consider.

In a realistic worse case scenario, Republicans will have the margins in both houses they had in 2014 (perhaps even 1 or 2 more senate seats) and the WH they won with perhaps Obama's margins in 2012 on 1/20/25. It would probably be the most conservative Government since the original Gilded Age. Would that necessarily mean there's a realignment? No. Maybe if Republicans could get a senate Supermajority, we would be talking but even Obama couldn't do that.

Would it be any different than the Republican trifecta from 2017-2019?

Probably. The Republican party is far more cultish toward Trump nowadays.

Same time, McConnell is far more hostile to Trump now

McConnell got what he wanted from the Trump administration. Far right judges across the country and tax cuts that probably won't be reversed any time soon.

[Pres Mike]

I’m now rooting against this passing

It has too many of the non tangibles in it and not enough of the major things.

What’s the point

This is why we can't have nice things.

Is it? Pretty sure the reason we can't have nice things is that the Senate and EC are rigged in favor of conservative, rural whites. And that's not going to change (until it's too late). Yeah, you can criticize Democratic-leaning voters for scoffing at the scraps the Biden Administration is prepared to deliver. Incremental progress is certainly better than none at all. However, I think most of us are anticipating living through a climate catastrophe and/or a rightwing autocracy. And the establishment wing of the Democratic Party has all but conceded it's incapable of protecting us from either of those dystopian futures. So I'm kinda with MillennialModerate — what's the point of continuing to support such a party? Family medical leave is nice, but next to addressing climate change and safeguarding democracy, it's basically nothing.         

That's the reason we can't have amazing things, but it's the epitome of privilege to oppose a $2T bill (along with its infrastructure companion that's nearly $1T itself) that will be a godsend to millions of people because it is doesn't do enough for you personally.

We still have Congress for another 14 months (and inshallah longer). We still have time to pass more bills that cover what this one doesn't. But let's get this victory and then start planning the next one.

We need a public option badly....

But we also need climate, immigration, $15 minimum wage and voting rights so...

[Pres Mike]

So Manchin is just trying kill reconciliation at this point, but doesn’t want the professional blow back so he’s just going to make increasingly ridiculous demands until someone else walks.

Just waiting to hear GeneralMacArthur tell us how this is Bernie Sanders fault.

Sanders should just kill the whole thing, let the rest of party make examples out of Manchin and Sinema. This is what corporate bloodsuckers look like, this is what a failed presidency looks like. Biden will be the last moderate I ever support in a Democratic primary. Thanks for nothing, scumbags.

You didn’t see this coming with Biden?  Nominating and electing these moderate Democrats for President has done nothing but destroy the party.  Just look at the Dem numbers in Congress and state legislatures in 1992 and compare them to the likely numbers after 2022.   The Dem strategy of the last thirty years had not worked.

Well, I also supported Obama in the '08 primary, and I don't think his presidency was completely inconsequential. Overall, I was pretty satisfied. But now, given the circumstances, Biden has to do more. Specifically, on the issues of electoral reform and climate change. In terms of the number of Democrats in Congress and state legislatures, I think you have to accept that no amount of progressive legislation would've prevented a number of Southern/rural whites from defecting to the GOP. Medicare dental benefits and universal pre-K aren't things that are actually swaying their electoral decisions. They should be, but they aren't.  

Dems hold very few southern/rural white districts at the congressional and state legislative level at this point.  The fact that they are still likely to lose ground even from this low base shows that there are other problems at work.

It's not that they are hitting new lows, its just that they haven't solidified gains. They need to do better in fast growing areas. Maybe that means moving in a more Sinema-style direction if more working people in stagnant areas won't vote for them. Maybe a Gabbard-style direction would win back some of the people that cost them states and districts by surprise in 2020. In my opinion, there are people who will vote for what they stand for now, they just need them to vote.

I very much doubt someone who wears purple wigs will win back working class communities ...

[Pres Mike]

Back and forth, back and forth... it appears Manchin is really not a "no" on Billionaire tax

https://twitter.com/speechboy71/status/1453393494098255873

Not going to lie, having Joe Manchin support Warren's billionaire tax was not on my bingo card back in 2019

[Pres Mike]

Well, for me personally the most important things were pre-k, Obamacare subsidies and Medicaid expansion

I really wanted paid leave and climate though

Never cared for free community college because its already free for most people

But what I really want is $15, public otion, immigration and voting rights and none of that seems possible

[Pres Mike]

Screw this deal

After winning the house, senate and white house...


All we will get is pre-k. That is it. And Medicare pays for hearing

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/10/28/president-biden-announces-the-build-back-better-framework/

Seriously, I don't even care if it passes. The American people are not going to keep Democrats in office in 2022 for pre-k alone.

[Pres Mike]

Screw this deal

After winning the house, senate and white house...


All we will get is pre-k. That is it. And Medicare pays for hearing

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/10/28/president-biden-announces-the-build-back-better-framework/

Seriously, I don't even care if it passes. The American people are not going to keep Democrats in office in 2022 for pre-k alone.

That's like 10% of it.

But what are the American people going to notice? What are they going to feel and benefit from?

What is 90 billion for equity? What is 555 for clean energy? I'm sure everything is important but for the average stupid American, what will benefit the party electorally???

[Pres Mike]

Screw this deal

After winning the house, senate and white house...


All we will get is pre-k. That is it. And Medicare pays for hearing

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/10/28/president-biden-announces-the-build-back-better-framework/

Seriously, I don't even care if it passes. The American people are not going to keep Democrats in office in 2022 for pre-k alone.

That's like 10% of it.

But what are the American people going to notice? What are they going to feel and benefit from?

What is 90 billion for equity? What is 555 for clean energy? I'm sure everything is important but for the average stupid American, what will benefit the party electorally???

This. Agree 100%

This is a JOKE. You guys seem more wrapped up in the (hate to use a R talking point but) “Progressive Wishlist” and not what every Americans will FEEL. Those are the things that will stop the bleeding in the mid terms. Not things that they don’t feel and the R’s can paint as tax and spend leftists policies.

Child Care is really the only thing of consequence I see in this joke of a bill. Family/Medical leave was *CRITICAL*

And it boggles the brains why even Manchin/Sinema are against it.

It appears you have not actually read what's in the bill then.

What is in the bill that the average American voter is going to feel? Unless you have pre-school children, they aren't going to notice anything. Even the pre-k probably won't start for 2-3 years to get set up

Paid leave, Medicare expansion, drug savings, dental benefits. Those are the big items people would have noticed. Even if these programs would have started after the midterms, people would have acknowledged that Democrats passed them

Everyone is cheering for 500 billion for climate. Great, but if its not going to phase out oil/gas plants its not going to do its job. That was the only way to get us to half emissions by 2030. But lets give people 500 billion to install some solar panels I guess?

[Pres Mike]

What is in the bill that the average American voter is going to feel?

The biggest is obviously hard infrastructure, plus general economic growth. To that end, BIF is more useful. And even then, it doesn't matter how it plays in 2022 because we have the trifecta right now. Just shove through the entire agenda now and don't lose the presidency until the 2030s. Holding the house in 2023 isn't all that important.

Great, but if its not going to phase out oil/gas plants its not going to do its job.

It will. Learn more about how this works.

Hard infrastructure? Great

But I am a teacher. Pretend I am a ignorant teacher. How does fixing road affect me?

Am I going to get a pay raise? Am I going to save money on childcare? Will my wife get paid if she has a baby? Will I get dental benefits when I retire? Will my kids get at least two years of community college?