Biden infrastructure/tax increase megathread

[Pres Mike]

Actually, after reading the article below, it is clear that the squad types don't have enough votes to stop anything, and I expect them to be kicked to the curb in due course.

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/09/17/liberals-progressives-democrat-agenda-512621

I don't get what in that article is indicating that for you. Half their caucus voting against leaves it many votes shy of passing with dems alone. And there's nothing there about a bunch of Republicans who are going to come on board.

There are Pub votes for infrastructure. There were 19 of them in the Senate.

The Progressive caucus is like 95 members. You would need like 40 GOP Ayes with half the progressives opposed. Idk if that level of GOP support is there.

Not to mention Democratic leadership clearly want the reconcillation passed in full. If half the progressive caucus is voting nay, I wouldn't be surpised if leadership supports them by not even allowing floor vote. If Pelosi votes nay, expect several more Democrats to vote nay. Clyburn is already sayign that it may not be ready for a Sept 27 vote, which means not floor vote without reconcillation. If he votes nay, expect the CBC to vote nay

[Pres Mike]

All my life, I have heard "Nothing will change, regardless who is in Washington". I have also heard "Voting doesn't really matter"

Me, being the nerdy and politically active highschool/college student and than high school civics teacher, would always argue. Elections matter. Elections have consquences.

But now, I kinda understand that point of view. Because of dumbs rules like the filibuster and poitnless rulings from the senate parlimentarian, nothing important is being done.

The biggest things I hoped from a Democratic trifecta were...

-Immigration reform
-Public Option
-15,000 tax credit for first time home owners
-Ban gerrymandering
-Increase teacher pay

Looks like none of that is going to happen. And the B tier I want like Medicaid expansion, paid leave, Pre-K, EBT increase may be watered down so much

[Pres Mike]

I have no idea why they decided to take an August recess. Why leave for a 1.5 months knowing when you came back you had all these major lifts. This was just stupid on the democratic leadership. Pass the jobs and family plans, fund government and abolish the debt ceiling. Better yet fire the senate parliamentarian and pass the voting rights act. Than take a month break jeez

[Pres Mike]

I have no idea why they decided to take an August recess. Why leave for a 1.5 months knowing when you came back you had all these major lifts. This was just stupid on the democratic leadership. Pass the jobs and family plans, fund government and abolish the debt ceiling. Better yet fire the senate parliamentarian and pass the voting rights act. Than take a month break jeez

Sinema refused to cancel her August vacation plans.

I’m being dead serious.

EDIT: Citation
https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2021/07/30/sinemas-vacation-plans-manchin-gets-booed-and-megadonor-drama-493787?9

When CHUCK SCHUMER announced earlier this month that he might keep the Senate in session into August — delaying a previously scheduled recess in order to shepherd the two gigantic bills through the chamber — Sinema told the majority leader that she was not sticking around to vote, multiple Senate sources tell Playbook.

She had prior vacation plans, she said, and wasn’t about to let the infrastructure or reconciliation bills get in the way

I remember that

Ok, let her go back to Arizona or Vegas or Switz Alps. Keep the comittees writers in DC during August (Promise them time off in October). So the bills are written by September 1st and than let Manchin/Purple hair weirdo cross out the stuff they don't like instead of a few days before deadline. This just gave them a lot more levage

[Pres Mike]

I'm fine with SALT. Deficit spending doesn't actually matter

[Pres Mike]

I suspect the vote on BIF either will be delayed or defeated

I suspect that until Manchin/Sinema agree to passing 2 trillion by November 1st (when Biden heads to Climate Meeting in Scotland) BIF won't pass

If I was Schumer, I would start a seperate reconcillation bill NOW so we do not default on our debt.

[Pres Mike]

In another timeline

-Filibuster is abolished
-Debt limit is abolished
-No shutdown rule (if budget isn't pass, current levels automatically continue)
-1.7 Trillion Jobs Plan passed
-6 Trillion Families plan passed (with public option)
-John Lewis Voting Rights Act passed
-For the People Act passed

Joe Biden could have went down as the greatest president of the 21st century

[Pres Mike]

Question

Does the 3.5 trillion inculde the 1.6 trillion for the US budget in FY 2022? The additional 900 million was going to be spent over the next decade on social programs?

If its 1.5 trillion, what is being spent on social programs?

[Pres Mike]

it is a total waste of tax money to give the kids of rich families free community college, to give rich yuppies free daycare, and to give rich seniors free vision and dental.

  This really makes no sense. First off most rich families are not sending their kids to Community College and if they did, so what?

 Nobody would say it's a waste of tax payer money for rich people to call the firefighters when their house is on fire.

 If we appropriately taxed the rich with a progressive tax system, why shouldn't they enjoy the benefit of public education or socialized medicine, they've paid for it!

What Matty is getting at is the new benefits geared towards community college benefits would disproportionately benefit wealthier taxpayers given that community college is heavily subsidized and practically free for low income earners, while it is not for high income earners.

I’d be OK with a linear sliding scale like they use for SNAP or SSI.

I'm find with means testing, but it needs to be generous

Community College is already free for low income people. Pell Grants are an option for about the lower half of the population

But about 80% of the population can not pay out of pocket. That is about 40% of the country that still needs more college aid

I am a big fan of SNAP, but it leaves out a lot of people who need it. I'm glad Biden raised the barriers but we need to raise the limit higher and increase benefits. Same for Pell Grant

I would double the current Pell Grant and increase eligbigty. I would also imposed a tution cap on all colleges/universities that use college loans/grants. Granted that doesn't help with housing or food, but we should really encourage more kids to live at home. I knew kids who had full rides on tution but had to go tens of thousands in debt to pay for housign???
 That would basically make college free for most people without actaully making it free. And Biden did promise that in the campaign

[Pres Mike]

Truly low students that are not intended to go on to the trades, professions, or the tallest ivory towers can be sent into community based instruction to work in the simplest jobs whether they are typical D and F students that flunked out of 8th grade or have severe intellectual disabilities.

Agreed with UniverseMan. Whether we like it or not the vast majority of those in the bottom 25 percent of the IQ distribution land up in simple repetitive labor jobs. From a cost benefit perspective why should taxpayers be footing the bill for such students to "further" their education when they get little to nothing out of it, and can instead be earning and investing money at an earlier age?

I agree with everything you said except the bolded part

Why do Americans need to invest? That is gambling. Most Americans retirments are in 401k, which could collpase tomorrow. Than what?

We should make sure employors offer good pension plans and raise benefits to social security. We also need to help people buy their first home eariler so its paid off when they retire.

Rent, healthcare, childcare, groceries are all super expensive. People do not have enough extra income to invest in the stock market

[Pres Mike]

Hold your horses folks. I'm pro-Biden, but this ultimately boils down to a mild expansion of the social safety net and a mild repudiation of Reaganism, which, while great news, is hardly monumental. Something along the lines of 3.5 or 6 trillion may have been more worthy of Rushmore, but of course I don't blame Biden for that.

Had Biden done the following, he would be worthy of Rushmore

-6 trillion American Family Plan
-1.7 trillion American Jobs Plan
-John Lewis Voting Rights Act
-For the People Act
-End Filibuster
-End debt ceiling
-Law prevents government shutdowns, no budget passes means staying at current levels

Make sure Family Plan had free college, immigration, $15 an hour, PRO act, teacher pay, lower Medicare to 55, free insulin. 15,000 housing credit and public option

Make sure Job Plan protects country from climate, AI, cyber attack, natural diaster, hacking and stuff to clea up the oceans and near space

Through executive order, Biden could forgive all student loans and end stupid mandatory testing in schools. Also mandate civics and real life skills be taught

[Pres Mike]

Hold your horses folks. I'm pro-Biden, but this ultimately boils down to a mild expansion of the social safety net and a mild repudiation of Reaganism, which, while great news, is hardly monumental. Something along the lines of 3.5 or 6 trillion may have been more worthy of Rushmore, but of course I don't blame Biden for that.

Had Biden done the following, he would be worthy of Rushmore

-6 trillion American Family Plan
-1.7 trillion American Jobs Plan
-John Lewis Voting Rights Act
-For the People Act
-End Filibuster
-End debt ceiling
-Law prevents government shutdowns, no budget passes means staying at current levels

Make sure Family Plan had free college, immigration, $15 an hour, PRO act, teacher pay, lower Medicare to 55, free insulin. 15,000 housing credit and public option

Make sure Job Plan protects country from climate, AI, cyber attack, natural diaster, hacking and stuff to clea up the oceans and near space

Through executive order, Biden could forgive all student loans and end stupid mandatory testing in schools. Also mandate civics and real life skills be taught

Ending mandatory testing would do literally no good, and further destroy the American education system. The rest is fine, though free college for everyone is a bit excessive imo.

Why do you say that about testing? I am a teacher and mandatory testing has ruined public education. I am expected to "teach how to pass the test" than actual social studies. And as long as the students take the test, they can't fail the school year which gives them no inecentive to try. Its awful. I teach 8th grade US history btw.

Plus teachers are graded by their students test scores, which are always awful because the students don't have any incentive to try. This only causese more teachers to leave the profression.

[Pres Mike]

I know I've said this before, but the debt ceiling is the stupidest thing the government has. There is no reason for it to exsit. No one in the country is advocating for it. Yet there seems to be no one adovating to get rid of it.

Every year we risk the literal end of the world for what?

[Pres Mike]

Why are Democrats so opposed to raising the debt ceiling through reconciliation? If I was them I would abolish it altogether

[Pres Mike]

A certain Green avatar is practically on the verge of becoming the first poster on my ignore list because of the inane and asinine posts being made on this thread.

It's OK DEMs, PUBs, LBTs, IND's etc.... We can agree/disagree wrangle etc....

but really starting to look like one individual is excessively spamming the thread with nobody else responding to their comments.

Most people have put Mr. Kanye West on ignore. I did it the first day. He’s a troll bot. Why he isn’t banned is beyond me

[Pres Mike]

If you ignore Kanye, you are ignoring Atlas.

Why is that

[Pres Mike]

A certain Green avatar is practically on the verge of becoming the first poster on my ignore list because of the inane and asinine posts being made on this thread.

It's OK DEMs, PUBs, LBTs, IND's etc.... We can agree/disagree wrangle etc....

but really starting to look like one individual is excessively spamming the thread with nobody else responding to their comments.

Most people have put Mr. Kanye West on ignore. I did it the first day. He’s a troll bot. Why he isn’t banned is beyond me

I can assure you with absolute confidence that most posters do not have Mr. Kayne West on ignore.

Why so?

[Pres Mike]

Every time I see a new post on this thread I think I’m going to click on the thread to find a quoted tweet that shows major progress and every time I’m disappointed….

Im officially really really concerned

It was always a fantasy that Democrats would have both the BIF and Reconciliation done by October 1st.

If it wasn’t for Manchin/Sinema, we would have a 2 trillion infrastructure package and a 6 trillion reconciliation package done by August recess. Along with killing the filibuster, voting rights, immigration, minimum wage increase and abolishing the debt ceiling

Imagine a world where Democrats had won senate seats in Maine, North Carolina and Iowa….

[Pres Mike]

Why is it irrational for Bernie or Warren to demand certain positions but fine for Sinema and Manchin?

Assuming it were for real rather than a bluff, it would only be rational if they preferred zero dollars for reconciliation over 1.5 trillion, and potentially zero dollars for infrastructure, if they can't get 3.5 trillion.

The whole affair is this weird contest, where the issue is whether Manchin/Sinema would rather have nothing as opposed to 1.2 trillion for infrastructure and more than 1.5 trillion for reconciliation, on the one hand, and Sanders/Warren would also rather have nothing rather than 1.2 trillion for infrastructure and only 1.5 trillion for reconciliation, on the other hand.

It's weird because one scenario is that the meeting of the minds on the least bad option is to zero everything out. And that outcome is so weird, that it seems less weird to just assume that somebody is bluffing, and patiently wait for the bluff to be called.

Precisely. Anyone on the left prefers any amount of spending on the reconciliation bill, even $0.01, over passing nothing. They also prefer the infrastructure bill to not having the infrastructure bill. In short, half a loaf is better than none. So when presented with the option of passing something over passing nothing, if they behaved rationally they would vote for "something". This may not be true of Manchin, if the reconciliation bill is bad enough in his view, he may prefer throwing away the infrastructure bill to passing it.

So if everyone behaved rationally Manchin would have all the leverage and he would get his way on the reconciliation bill. However irrational factors, such as spite, pride, bruised egos, fear of humiliation, etc have gotten involved, and I think it's possible that nothing will pass.

If everyone was behaving rationally, we'd have passed a single ~$6 trillion infrastructure bill combining any good stuff in Sinemanchin's pet bipartisan piece of crap and full-funding for all of the Build Back Better agenda which was the original plan until Sinemanchin had a temper-tantrum and for no remotely sensible reason began demanding that it be split into two bills while agreeing to support a $3.5 trillion stimulus bill.  Sinemanchin are going back on their word b/c their donors in the Koch political network want them to kill the reconciliation bill.  Anyone suggesting that progressives are the ones behaving unreasonably is ignorant at best and deliberately engaging in revisionist history at worst.

I disagree, pretty sure that Manchin would prefer nothing to pass rather than the original $6 trillion bill. Remember this dude got elected shooting the cap and trade bill and promising to take on the Obama administration. I can't recall any statement by Manchin that he would support a $3.5 trillion bill, he merely voted to start debate on the bill, which as we saw with the debt ceiling vote, is not binding him to supporting it. I'll give you that only Manchin can credibly make this statement and that Sinema is behaving irrationally, but still, that's still the 50th vote you need.

You may claim that you would rather nothing to pass than your preferred reconciliation package, but that's your pride and spite talking, and those are irrational emotional factors that really shouldn't be interfering with the business of policy making.

What I’m saying is that there was no good reason to oppose the original ~$6 trillion bill.  In any case, $3.5 trillion was the final compromise and that has nothing to do with pride or spite.  Manchin committed that he would be a team player on reconciliation if the Senate passed the infrastructure bill and he has been anything but.  

There is more value in denying Sinemanchin the win of passing their pet piece of crap (especially if the Dems are smart enough to make it known that any lobbying firm that hires them will be blacklisted) than there is in giving them a win in exchange for a reconciliation bill that has been watered down to the point of uselessness.  It’ll show that folks aren’t gonna be rewarded for f***ing over the rest of the party by killing the Democratic agenda on orders of Republican donors.  If Sinemanchin get a legislative win out of this, then party discipline will be dead for the foreseeable future.  That cannot be allowed to happen.  

Moreover, progressives have consistently bent over backward to accommodate Sinemanchin as much as reasonably possible and then some.  Sinemanchin have been the personification of unreasonable, rigidly inflexible behavior and consistently acted in bad-faith at every turn.  

You’ve even acknowledged Sinema is not behaving rationally and Manchin has consistently behaved like a spiteful, ego-driven spoiled brat throwing a temper tantrum because the grown ups aren’t indulging his delusions of grandeur.  The man seems to think he can just arbitrarily make a bunch of ridiculous, bad-faith demands and then expect everyone to do whatever he wants without question.  It doesn’t work that way.  He is not God-Emperor of America and while he can kill other folks’ legislation, what’s good for the goose is good for the gander.  

Plus, his behavior isn’t pragmatic or reasonable; it’s just the congressional equivalent of a temper tantrum by a toddler who is throwing his feces at everyone b/c he’s angry about being told he has to eat his vegetables before he can have ice cream.

Are you still under the illusion that Manchin is a closet liberal or that there's a "Manchin Cycle" and that Manchin will ultimately back whatever the Democratic party leadership wants? Manchin is not a liberal, he's the last of the old-school conservative Southern Democrat. He made his way to Congress running against Democrats, shooting a copy of the 2009 cap-and-trade bill, promising to defend Second Amendment rights, cut federal spending and "repeal the bad parts of Obamacare", and to take on the Obama administration. It's entirely reasonable to think that he may genuinely prefer nothing than an excessive reconciliation bill, and that's why he should have all the leverage and dictate what goes into the bill, since no other Democrat can credibly claim that. You guys on the left may hate it, sure, but he's the 50th vote on this legislation and without him you have nothing, and since you would prefer anything over nothing, you have to let him have his way. The alternative is being a petulant child, behaving irrationally and blowing it all up because you can't have everything you want.

Maybe Manchin should run some ads of him taking a copy of the reconciliation bill and shooting it just to make the point more clear to you.

The problem with Manchin is that he is uncompromising despite everyone bending the knee.

Biden has invited Manchin to the White House multiple times. He gave his wife a very comfy high pay job in the federal government. Biden and Schumer are basically letting him write the bill. Manchin is being treated like a king. I can't think of anyone else in government who gets this treatment. In the 60s, LBJ would act very differently....

But Manchin is being difficult. He isn't compromisng. No one else is being told "Name your price". Yet time after time, he has refused to name how much he wants or what he wants cut. All he wants is to drag this out which is unacceptable. He only came to 1.5 trillion AFTER he Summer memo was leaked to the press. Otherwise, I think he would have waited until next year to get serious.

Everyone has principals. Everyone has morals. But you do not become a successful senator/represenative by not compromising. No one was pleased with Obamacare, yet 20 million people now have health insurance. That is 10% of the adult population of this country. That is because people compomised. Manchin is not comprosing

[Pres Mike]

Pelosi is floating a rule change, where the Treasury Secretary is allowed to raise the debt ceiling and congress would have to vote to stop if they still
https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook-pm/2021/10/12/pelosi-floats-a-debt-ceiling-plan-b-494667?nname=playbook-pm&nid=0000015a-dd3e-d536-a37b-dd7fd8af0000&nrid=0000014c-2414-d9dd-a5ec-34bc65180004&nlid=964328&cid=hptb_primary_0

This would be perfect. And it would basically kill the debt ceiling in practice. What Treasury Secreaty would NOT raise the debt limit? What congress would stop him/her

[Pres Mike]

Pelosi is floating a rule change, where the Treasury Secretary is allowed to raise the debt ceiling and congress would have to vote to stop if they still
https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook-pm/2021/10/12/pelosi-floats-a-debt-ceiling-plan-b-494667?nname=playbook-pm&nid=0000015a-dd3e-d536-a37b-dd7fd8af0000&nrid=0000014c-2414-d9dd-a5ec-34bc65180004&nlid=964328&cid=hptb_primary_0

This would be perfect. And it would basically kill the debt ceiling in practice. What Treasury Secreaty would NOT raise the debt limit? What congress would stop him/her

bad idea, i could see a rogue prez and appointed trez sec keeping a congress controlled by the oppo party in hostage situation for policy capitulations to keep economy alive

Assuming this Trump 2.0 has a opposition controlled Congress, that means elections still take place. Which means democracy is still alive.

Which means this Trump 2.0 wouldn’t want to risk the consequences of a global recession

[Pres Mike]

Progressives made a good effort in standing their ground here, but what they didn’t realize is that Manchin and Sinema don’t really care if neither infrastructure bill gets passed. They couldn’t care less if the whole thing is blown up, whereas they know that progressives wouldn’t actually go that far.

They called progressives’ bluff, and now the size of the reconciliation bill will go down and down.

It’s unfortunate that they are either major attention seekers or have chosen to represent certain corporate donors or both. Americans support what’s in the bill as-is.

They still made the right move in shelving the bipartisan bill in order to get Manchin and Sinema to at least be forced to give a damn about the reconciliation bill. If the bipartisan bill passed first the human infrastructure package would be in an even worse position.

So realistically, will this thing be done before 11/2?

That would be nice, because at this point I think Democrats just need to pass something, and it is to the benefit of McAuliffe and Murphy for this to be out of the way before their elections.

Your right. Had BIF passed the House, reconcillation wouldn't be more than 1.5 trillion and wouldn't be passed before New Years

[Pres Mike]

https://www.businessinsider.com/manchin-republican-infrastructure-plan-tax-hikes-senate-democrats-spending-bill-2021-4?amp

Manchin is a flip flopper

Back in April, he called for $4 in infrastructure as long as it was “paid for”. This was in response to republicans 800 billion plan for physical infrastructure proposed by fellow West Virginia senator Capito

Unknown if he was referring to just physical infrastructure or both physical and human infrastructure.

Considering that Biden had just released a budget calling for 2.3 trillion in physical infrastructure and 1.7 trillion in human infrastructure, which neatly adds up to 4 trillion, most pundits assumed Manchin was talking both

Now he wants to cap it at 2.7?

[Pres Mike]

No surprise since Manchin is just doing what his donors of the fossil fuel industry are telling him. I'm not the biggest fan of AOC, but she's completely right here.

Unless individual US states and the private sector are doing even more, America is unfortunately on track to lose the "battle" of over becoming the green superpower of the 21st century. I'm actually glad all major parties in government in Germany (or most of Europe) actually agree here. It's just kinda sad investments in climate action and renewable energies are still not consensus in America. I'm aware the fossil fuel industry employs a lot of people, but nobody is calling to close them at once. Making sure there are other jobs available is an obligation of the government in the meantime.

There are several issues transitioning oil/gas workers to green jobs.

First, they can be in totally different career fields. An engineer working wind turbines needs a different set of education than a gas worker.

Second, green energy typically requires a lot more education to work. Oil/gas jobs are probably the best paying field for non college educated workers.

Third, green jobs pay a lot less. They just do. Most oil/gas workers belong to legacy unions from decades ago.

Fourth, they are in different areas. A gas worker in Louisiana isn’t going to just sell his house to work in a wind field in Nebraska. Never mind it’ll devastate local economies

Fifth, green jobs just hire less people

[Pres Mike]

This is progress though, we can neagioate to 100k housholds