Anybody think Hawley's a likely contender for 2024? I think he's one of the only candidates who would be at all competitive against Trump in a primary.
Not only would he not run against Trump, he's polling at like...1% in polls without Trump included.
I could definitely see him running against Trump; Hawley's brand is pretty unique in the GOP right now. Someone like DeSantis, who's very derivative of Trump, probably won't run against him. But Hawley is positioning himself as a new breed of Republican. Given this, I could easily see him running against Trump.
When it comes to polling, we're a long way from the primary. Voters are tuned out, and I'd say Hawley isn't quite a household name yet. If he did end up running, his name recognition would go up through news coverage, debates, etc. Remember that Carter, Obama, Bernie, and others were all unexpectedly successful though early polling was very much not in their favor.
That's not to say polls don't matter, but their value is decidedly limited right now. Until the primary season is actually underway or close to it, I'd say they're far from definitive.
