🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Jackson Lee]

Germans should really vote for Olarf Scholz and DPD.

Laschtet is an embarrassment and would hurt Germany on the international stage.

[Jackson Lee]

According to this poll the SPD has now pulled dead even with the CDU. I think Scholz will be the next chancellor

https://twitter.com/electsworld/status/1428006070950244356?s=21

I think so too: SPD+Greens+FDP.

A government of winners, with Scholz leading it.

Laschet has made himself a fool during the floods and at the Tesla plant in East GER standing next to Elon Musk.

[Jackson Lee]

If the SPD ends up being the largest party, what coalition could Scholz form? Would the CDU be willing to be the junior partner in a grand coalition? Would the FDP be willing to be a third wheel in a Traffic light coalition? Would a red-red-green all left coalition be a possibility if the math added up?

Scholz is too moderate within the SPD to form a coalition with the Linke.

He prefers SPD-Union I suppose, or even more so SPD-Greens-FDP.

If the Union loses the election by a lot, they will go into opposition.

Expect the SPD to gain more in the next weeks, when German voters return from the beaches.

[Jackson Lee]

According to this poll the SPD has now pulled dead even with the CDU. I think Scholz will be the next chancellor

https://twitter.com/electsworld/status/1428006070950244356?s=21

Wahlkreisprognose "polls" should be taken with caution. They tend to publish quite extreme numbers and are completely intransparent in their methodology. Wahlrecht.de (poll database of all reputable polls) does not include them.

Thanks.

This latest poll from an eastern state shows a monumental shift to the SPD compared to 2017:

https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/laender.htm#mv

[Jackson Lee]

SPD up even more since last poll:





Who should lead next government?



https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/deutschlandtrend/deutschlandtrend-2723.html

51% SPD + Greens + FDP
41% Union + AfD + Left

Go Olaf!

[Jackson Lee]

Got my postal ballot today:



Still can't believe that Greens couldn't make it on the ballot in my very first federal election.
Their direct candidate is a professor of mine btw and I did a presentation about nuclear energy in one of his courses.

Why no Greens on your ballot

[Jackson Lee]

Wahlrecht.de is out with a new poll from Saxony in the East.

And it shows a big shift to the SPD too.

For Germany, it would point to the SPD being at around 25% right now.



Vote for Chancellor:



Scholz is very popular with CDU voters:



https://www.mdr.de/nachrichten/sachsen/sachsentrend-umfrage-august-100.html

[Jackson Lee]

People are already voting, with the SPD peaking just at the right time:

‘Every day is election day.’ Rise in postal voting shifts German campaign dynamics.

Anyone who’s followed a general election in Germany knows the campaign’s fairly predictable heiße Phase (“hot phase”): Posters go up around the country, then top candidates meet for a primetime debate before crisscrossing the country in a frenzied bid to turn out as many voters as possible before election day.

This year, postal voting is already scrambling that rhythm.

The high number of mail-in ballots this year, which experts say could reach upwards of a third of the electorate, means campaign rallies and events are gearing up earlier, election night projections may be less accurate and candidate missteps at the wrong time could mean wasted votes for those casting them early.

In what’s proving to be an already unpredictable campaign for top chancellor candidates like the Christian Democrats’ Armin Laschet and the Greens’ Annalena Baerbock, the role of mail-in voting is another volatile factor to reckon with in the lead-up to election day.

Although there’s no set date on which voters can expect to receive their mail-in ballots, this week, according to Germany’s election officer (the Federal Returning Officer), marks the beginning of that period. Typically, the earliest a ballot would arrive is six weeks before the election (in this case, that would have been on August 16) — but in many cases, it will be more like five weeks (August 23). Either way, those choosing to vote by mail can start doing so within the next week or two, which means the major parties vying for the chancellery are running out of time with a large chunk of the electorate.

“In general, it will probably mean that the parties focus less on one big effort in the final stretch of the campaign, with big appearances and lots of events to try and mobilize voters in the last two weeks before Election Day,” said Daniel Hellmann, of the Institute of Parliamentary Research in Berlin. “Since there will definitely be many more people who vote by mail, the parties will also shift things forward and intensify their campaigns earlier.”

If state-level elections earlier this year are any indication, the increase in postal voting could indeed be big come September. In both Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate, which voted in March, the proportion of voters who opted for a postal ballot more than doubled from the last election (from 21.1 percent to 51.5 percent in Baden-Württemberg, and from 30.6 percent to 66.5 percent in Rhineland-Palatinate).

https://www.politico.eu/article/postal-voting-germany-election-campaign/

[Jackson Lee]

https://twitter.com/Wahlrecht_de/status/1429177014796365831
The first somewhat reputable pollster indicating a tie - with the Greens being closer to the Liberals than to Union/SPD.

Depending on the course of the next weeks, one might assume whether the 3rd spot for the Greens is really a shoo-in. Their support has been stagnant/slightly declining during the Scholz surge, and if the last weeks of the campaign appear to be a Scholz vs. Laschet rather than a three-way race, I wouldn't exclude the possibility of Scholz consolidating some center-left voters behind the SPD that are siding Baerbock as of now. Support for the FDP has seen a slight upward trend with the Union vote share dropping.

This election is really the most exciting in years.

Does anyone else agree with me that SPD+Greens+Liberals would be the best government for the next 4 years?

[Jackson Lee]

https://twitter.com/Wahlrecht_de/status/1429177014796365831
The first somewhat reputable pollster indicating a tie - with the Greens being closer to the Liberals than to Union/SPD.

Depending on the course of the next weeks, one might assume whether the 3rd spot for the Greens is really a shoo-in. Their support has been stagnant/slightly declining during the Scholz surge, and if the last weeks of the campaign appear to be a Scholz vs. Laschet rather than a three-way race, I wouldn't exclude the possibility of Scholz consolidating some center-left voters behind the SPD that are siding Baerbock as of now. Support for the FDP has seen a slight upward trend with the Union vote share dropping.

This election is really the most exciting in years.

Does anyone else agree with me that SPD+Greens+Liberals would be the best government for the next 4 years?

Is the gap between the FDP and the Green to big to reconcile for a traffic light coalition?

It would be interesting to see how a grand coalition led by the SPD would operate

Why should a party that’s about to lose 10% still be in government?

Also, Genosse Olaf wants to send the Union into opposition. It’s his primary goal.

So, a coalition of three winners will be Germany’s future.

[Jackson Lee]

Interview with Genosse Olaf:

Germany’s future Kanzler.

[Jackson Lee]

Radio Hamburg polled Germany & Hamburg.

https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/laender.htm#hh

Here are the results:



SPD up more in Hamburg than in Germany vs. 2017.

Olaf Scholz effect (he was Hamburg Mayor once)?

[Jackson Lee]

Super good ad from the SPD, will translate after work

No need to translate the ad.

You can click on subtitles, then German, then automatically translate and choose English.

And yes, it’s indeed a very good ad.

Incredible how a party that was seen as incompetent a year ago is now back and about to win the election.

[Jackson Lee]

Absolutely stunning results from a new Mecklenburg poll for NDR.

SPD gains 14% compared to 2017, CDU falls by an identical amount.

https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/laender.htm#mv

[Jackson Lee]

At the start of the debate, they had a brief but heated argument about drones.

Laschet attacked Scholz for allowing the German military to purchase only unarmed surveillance drones, while Laschet wants them fully armed to kill terrorists.

Then it seemed to shift to evacuation of refugees out of Afghanistan and Covid.

[Jackson Lee]

Take a 👀 at this new poll, from Brandenburg (Berlin suburbs):









Wow.

https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/laender.htm#bb

[Jackson Lee]

Question for Germans:

Is Scholz more popular in the East than West?

So far, I have only seen polls from Eastern states which had double digit gains for the SPD - but only single digit increases in the West.

[Jackson Lee]

The big Linke drop possibly implies some of their usual SED pensioner vote is flirting with Scholz. Not surprised, tbh.

Question for Germans:

Is Scholz more popular in the East than West?

So far, I have only seen polls from Eastern states which had double digit gains for the SPD - but only single digit increases in the West.

Not German, but I believe Merkel had something of a personal vote.

Incredible how the Linke is still so strong in the East after 30 years.

But their voters are getting older and die. Expect the party to die too.

[Jackson Lee]

Looking at the Chancellor support, I wouldn’t be surprised if Scholz/SPD get 30% in the end.

Or close to.

[Jackson Lee]

Wahl Test:

I had SPD, Greens at over 70.

[Jackson Lee]

When is the next debate?

Is there an elephant roundtable, as they call it in Germany?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elefantenrunde