Future Majority/Change Polls: DeSantis +5 or so on challengers

[THG]

https://futuremajority.org/wp-content/uploads/FM-Memo-August-23-2021-FL-VA-Freedom-and-Democracy.pdf

While the margin on this poll is far more in line with reality than most other recent polling when it comes to the governor’s race, it apparently only has Rubio up THREE on his challenger.

That doesn’t add up whatsoever. Rubio is almost certainly going to outperform RDS, even if both win by wide margins. And Demings is a practical nobody, even if she is a superior candidate to Crist or Fried.

[THG]

The main reason why I even posted this here is because I don’t understand the apparent logic that Rubio will only win by 3. If RDS wins by 5-8 points I believe Rubio wins by 8+, though there really isn’t going to be much ticket splitting here either way. I do think that this will resemble 2018 more in terms of ticket splitting than other years, due to polarization.

Are Florida polls this consistently atrocious, regardless of which “side” they favor?

[THG]

While the margin on this poll is far more in line with reality than most other recent polling when it comes to the governor’s race, it apparently only has Rubio up THREE on his challenger.

Demings and Fried get the same share of the vote, Crist only does one point better.

Curious (genuinely) who you think the Crist/Rubio voters will be.

You know what? You’re actually probably right. I only got this notion that Rubio would outperform RDS by a bit due to his 8 point win in 2016.

Maybe some suburban moderates in Tampa Bay, Orlando or Jacksonville will be the Crist/Rubio voters. Crist isn’t going to swing back Miami at all.

[THG]

While the margin on this poll is far more in line with reality than most other recent polling when it comes to the governor’s race, it apparently only has Rubio up THREE on his challenger.

Demings and Fried get the same share of the vote, Crist only does one point better.

Curious (genuinely) who you think the Crist/Rubio voters will be.

You know what? You’re actually probably right. I only got this notion that Rubio would outperform RDS by a bit due to his 8 point win in 2016.

Maybe some suburban moderates in Tampa Bay, Orlando or Jacksonville will be the Crist/Rubio voters. Crist isn’t going to swing back Miami at all.

I think a lot of Murphy's underperformance in 2016 had to do with the Democratic outside groups mostly pulling out of the state for a while after Labor Day and not going back in until it was effectively too late. Murphy also having to pivot relatively quickly from an open seat race to a race against a well-known incumbent probably also threw him off.

Still, an 8 point win cannot be scoffed at. I think Rubio would do a tad bit better in the more traditional suburbs, but that's it. He may even do slightly worse in the rurals and exurbs.