Future Majority/Change Polls: DeSantis +5 or so on challengers

[THG]

https://futuremajority.org/wp-content/uploads/FM-Memo-August-23-2021-FL-VA-Freedom-and-Democracy.pdf

While the margin on this poll is far more in line with reality than most other recent polling when it comes to the governor’s race, it apparently only has Rubio up THREE on his challenger.

That doesn’t add up whatsoever. Rubio is almost certainly going to outperform RDS, even if both win by wide margins. And Demings is a practical nobody, even if she is a superior candidate to Crist or Fried.

[THG]

The main reason why I even posted this here is because I don’t understand the apparent logic that Rubio will only win by 3. If RDS wins by 5-8 points I believe Rubio wins by 8+, though there really isn’t going to be much ticket splitting here either way. I do think that this will resemble 2018 more in terms of ticket splitting than other years, due to polarization.

Are Florida polls this consistently atrocious, regardless of which “side” they favor?

[TodayJunior]

The DeSantis obsession is amusing I must say, but I do agree with you that Rubio will outperform Ron, most likely a 5-point spread. I’d point to 2016 to argue ticket splitting will be a factor.

I wouldn’t say Demings is a nobody though, but then again being one of her constituents, other parts of the state may not know about her. She’s a regular Jane- nothing super special, but it does puzzle me why she chose to run against Rubio rather than Ron, the latter of which is clearly more vulnerable.

[Pollster]

While the margin on this poll is far more in line with reality than most other recent polling when it comes to the governor’s race, it apparently only has Rubio up THREE on his challenger.

Demings and Fried get the same share of the vote, Crist only does one point better.

Curious (genuinely) who you think the Crist/Rubio voters will be.

[UncleSam]

I don’t see why DeSantis+5 is unreasonable. That’d be my exact guess as to the final margin as of now, give it take a couple points based on the environment and how the campaign plays out. Florida is an R leaning state yes, but it also has a very high Dem floor. I don’t think Crist or Demings will get under 46 or 47% even in a pretty bad scenario, so this seems fairly spot on.

I also don’t think it’s crazy that DeSantis may overperform Rubio. He has more appeal to the base and has fairly broad support in FL due to his covid and hurricane policies / handling, in spite of what national Ds might think.

[THG]

While the margin on this poll is far more in line with reality than most other recent polling when it comes to the governor’s race, it apparently only has Rubio up THREE on his challenger.

Demings and Fried get the same share of the vote, Crist only does one point better.

Curious (genuinely) who you think the Crist/Rubio voters will be.

You know what? You’re actually probably right. I only got this notion that Rubio would outperform RDS by a bit due to his 8 point win in 2016.

Maybe some suburban moderates in Tampa Bay, Orlando or Jacksonville will be the Crist/Rubio voters. Crist isn’t going to swing back Miami at all.

[Donerail]

Seems fine, whatever. This will quickly be forgotten b/c the Q POLL is dropping something today that I assume will break brains

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Fluke polling

[Pollster]

While the margin on this poll is far more in line with reality than most other recent polling when it comes to the governor’s race, it apparently only has Rubio up THREE on his challenger.

Demings and Fried get the same share of the vote, Crist only does one point better.

Curious (genuinely) who you think the Crist/Rubio voters will be.

You know what? You’re actually probably right. I only got this notion that Rubio would outperform RDS by a bit due to his 8 point win in 2016.

Maybe some suburban moderates in Tampa Bay, Orlando or Jacksonville will be the Crist/Rubio voters. Crist isn’t going to swing back Miami at all.

I think a lot of Murphy's underperformance in 2016 had to do with the Democratic outside groups mostly pulling out of the state for a while after Labor Day and not going back in until it was effectively too late. Murphy also having to pivot relatively quickly from an open seat race to a race against a well-known incumbent probably also threw him off.

[THG]

While the margin on this poll is far more in line with reality than most other recent polling when it comes to the governor’s race, it apparently only has Rubio up THREE on his challenger.

Demings and Fried get the same share of the vote, Crist only does one point better.

Curious (genuinely) who you think the Crist/Rubio voters will be.

You know what? You’re actually probably right. I only got this notion that Rubio would outperform RDS by a bit due to his 8 point win in 2016.

Maybe some suburban moderates in Tampa Bay, Orlando or Jacksonville will be the Crist/Rubio voters. Crist isn’t going to swing back Miami at all.

I think a lot of Murphy's underperformance in 2016 had to do with the Democratic outside groups mostly pulling out of the state for a while after Labor Day and not going back in until it was effectively too late. Murphy also having to pivot relatively quickly from an open seat race to a race against a well-known incumbent probably also threw him off.

Still, an 8 point win cannot be scoffed at. I think Rubio would do a tad bit better in the more traditional suburbs, but that's it. He may even do slightly worse in the rurals and exurbs.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Fried leads DeSantis 53/47, it's a Tossup you can find just as many polls showing D's ahead as DeSantis

[Progressive Pessimist]

DeSantis+5 seems like a fair expectation.

[Chips]

DeSantis+5 seems like a fair expectation.

[TodayJunior]

The GOP will do whatever they have to do to retain this seat. They want Florida to be their base state, and it may very well be if Texas falters.

[Hope For A New Era]

Yeah that needs to be flipped. My predictions for months now have been DeSantis +3 and Rubio +5.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah that needs to be flipped. My predictions for months now have been DeSantis +3 and Rubio +5.

Lol, it's embarrassing that DeSantis whom once lead by 60/40 to be leading by on  Margin of error and he is telling people not to wear masks

[jdk]

https://futuremajority.org/wp-content/uploads/FM-Memo-August-23-2021-FL-VA-Freedom-and-Democracy.pdf

While the margin on this poll is far more in line with reality than most other recent polling when it comes to the governor’s race, it apparently only has Rubio up THREE on his challenger.

That doesn’t add up whatsoever. Rubio is almost certainly going to outperform RDS, even if both win by wide margins. And Demings is a practical nobody, even if she is a superior candidate to Crist or Fried.

I'm not so sure about that- I don't see Rubio doing any better among whatever swing voters there may be than DeSantis, especially facing stronger opposition (TBH I don't see there being much ticket splitting either way where people vote D on one race and R on the other), and DeSantis is far more popular among the MAGA crowd than Rubio is.  I can definitely see enough of them only voting for governor while refusing to vote for anyone in the senate to result in DeSantis doing a couple points better.