NC-SEN, 2022: The Beasley Resurrection?

[THG]

McCrory has immense name recognition here but also lacks appeal to the conservative base. Thus, I don’t see him being victorious in the primary.


I think the primary and general election is Budd’s to lose, particularly after the Trump endorsement. I have a generic Republican winning the Tar Heel State next year by a margin of around 2.5 to 6 percentage points.

[THG]

McCrory has immense name recognition here but also lacks appeal to the conservative base. Thus, I don’t see him being victorious in the primary.


I think the primary and general election is Budd’s to lose, particularly after the Trump endorsement. I have a generic Republican winning the Tar Heel State next year by a margin of around 2.5 to 6 percentage points.

Yeah all these polls that have McCroy up big are useless. Budd has barely had time to get his name out and Trump will certainly campaign for him in NC. Budd's annoucement ad was leagues above McCroy plus Budd doesn't have the baggage of losing statewide as a Republican when Trump won the state. I'm pretty confident Budd gets this one although I predict that this race will go to a run off.

North Carolina in a red wave year is probably Lean Republican- with it being Likely in the best case scenario (unlikely).

I don’t see this race going to a runoff in a Biden midterm- if we had runoffs!

[THG]

McCrory has immense name recognition here but also lacks appeal to the conservative base. Thus, I don’t see him being victorious in the primary.


I think the primary and general election is Budd’s to lose, particularly after the Trump endorsement. I have a generic Republican winning the Tar Heel State next year by a margin of around 2.5 to 6 percentage points.

Yeah all these polls that have McCroy up big are useless. Budd has barely had time to get his name out and Trump will certainly campaign for him in NC. Budd's annoucement ad was leagues above McCroy plus Budd doesn't have the baggage of losing statewide as a Republican when Trump won the state. I'm pretty confident Budd gets this one although I predict that this race will go to a run off.

North Carolina in a red wave year is probably Lean Republican- with it being Likely in the best case scenario (unlikely).

I don’t see this race going to a runoff in a Biden midterm.

North Carolina doesn't have runoffs for the general, does it?

Nope, that’s an obvious fact that I somehow negated to mention.

But even if NC did have runoffs, 2022 in all likelihood won’t be close enough for a hypothetical runoff to occur. We aren’t electorally similar to GA whatsoever outside of some suburban areas being somewhat similar to Atlanta.

[THG]

Just Pat McCrory doing what Pat McCrory does best- blowing what should be a slam dunk victory, be it in a primary or in a general election. Ask anyone from my state!

If the man could even remotely visualize the room (let alone read it), he’d still be the favorite to win.

[THG]

https://twitter.com/PatMcCroryNC/status/1511737847220477957
I think McCrory forgot he's running in a GOP primary lol

Wow, this is a suicidal ad.

Not really. It makes sense given the lane he sits in in the GOP primary.

The lane he is in is "uninformed voters who remember him as governor" since he has way higher name rec than Budd. This doesn't help him.

Budd was going to be known anyway. This ad seeks to ensure that McCrory defines Budd before he can define himself.
"Costing NC Republicans a Senate seat"
The message being that this is what Ds *want* GOPers to choose in the primary and if we give them what they want, we'll lose in November.

This is a very weak argument coming from someone who cost NC Republicans the governorship in a solid year for the GOP.

McCrory still gets unfairly blamed for a lot by just about everyone on all sides of the political spectrum, but he’s also just about the last person you’d want to be making such an argument.

[THG]

He's setting himself up to be Burr's heir. Whether or not this will be helpful is up to the primary voters. Most primary voters are more partisan so this is likely to hurt him, but if he manages to win the primary, he could be in a stronger spot with moderates & independents.

Budd is not especially toxic to non-Trumpy North Carolina Republicans (aka me…..)- which is the biggest flaw with McCrory’s current campaign strategy.

If someone like Josh Mandel or Kari Lake was McCrory’s main competitor in the primary, his campaign strategy would have a much, much stronger case.