Predict Tammy Baldwin's margin of victory.

[Schiff for Senate]

Voted Baldwin+2-4. A performance similar to Evers 2022 would not surprise me whatsoever, and this is not going to be the squeaker or GOP flip that many people seem to think it will be.

I think she could actually go down this year. If Trump wins Wisconsin even narrowly, Baldwin has close to zero crossover appeal the same way Brown or Casey do. Its possible Hovde even outruns Baldwin. He will probably do better in places like WOW than her.

You mean, outruns Trump and performs better than Trump in WOW. Beating a Democrat in WOW is really no great feat lmfao.

[Schiff for Senate]

Considering that she overperformed Evers by 10 in her most recent race, I don't think it's accurate at all to say that she has "no crossover appeal." Crossover appeal is not based solely on ideology. I obviously don't think she'll overperform Biden by 10, but I do think she will by 3-5%, which will very likely be enough to pull out a win unless Democrats are having a really atrocious night. Baldwin +4 is my current guess.

To be fair, Walker (a GOP titan who beat back a recall and won 3 straight elections with relative ease) was an infinitely stronger candidate than Vukmir (literally who?).

I think that explains the 10 point overperformance more than anything else, more than Baldwin inherently being a stronger candidate than Evers (I think she will perform similarly to his 2022 performance).