Castro is a bad nominee who is pro-Palestine and supports illegal immigration. Choose a good, more moderate Dem who is tough on the border, not too hostile to the oil and gas industry, and Dems could win this.
Eh, you're definitely overestimating the importance voters give to actual policy positions. And let's be honest, a "moderate" Democrat would be hammered by the GOP and its campaigning arms just as hard.
Castro is definitely much stronger than a Wendy Davis or (2024) Beto O'Rourke. Yes,
they would be terrible candidates, but he's quite different from them.