CO-4: Boebert in hot water again (1/7)

[Schiff for Senate]

There are Republicans who legitimately, genuinely oppose the witch-hunt into Joe Biden. And there are people like Ken Buck, who are very clearly gunning for cushy jobs in the media.

It's wild that Ken Buck of all people is the "reasonable" one in the GOP caucus, and not someone like Fitzpatrick. (Fitz is a fake moderate and this all just proves it)

Truly is. Last I remember of Buck, it was back during the Speakership vote, when he went missing and flip-flopped on his vote or something like that (details are a bit fuzzy now).

[Schiff for Senate]

It's probably to avoid a primary. In time his district might be the only GOP voting district left in the state.

Even that district has a shot at flipping before the next census, because of how rapidly left-trending Douglas County is.

Ehh Douglas County alone won't be enough to flip the entire district, imo.

It's probably to avoid a primary. In time his district might be the only GOP voting district left in the state.

If true, it's literally insane to face a primary just because he voiced skepticism over a potential Biden impeachment. The GOP really doesn't tolerate any different opinion on any issue. If that even counts as issue.

Apparently he barely even won renomination in 2022. I'm not sure why, since he seems pretty conservative and standard R till now, but it appears very similar to what happened to Scott Tipton in neighbouring CO-03 two years earlier. Not particularly surprising that Republicans in the rural mountain west are extremely conservative, but still noteworthy.

Ig his close shave is the real reason he's looking for post-Congress careers - till I entered this thread, I was kinda under the impression that he wasn't particularly vulnerable to a primary threat (though maybe I should've known better).

[Schiff for Senate]

CO-05 is trending blue?

Yes, and actually very fast, but it also remains very red overall. It swung from Trump+28 in 2016 (60/32) to Trump+18 in 2020 (58/40).

The Colorado Springs district?   Trump won it by 22% in 2016 and 10% in 2020.  2016 had a huge third party vote share though (~10%)

Yeah, in part because of this, pretty much all of Colorado (outside of a few deep red, totally rural counties with no people) swung hard left in 2020. And contrary to its rural appearance, Buck's district isn't actually all that rural (cough cough Douglas County).

CO-05 is trending blue?

Yes, and actually very fast, but it also remains very red overall. It swung from Trump+28 in 2016 (60/32) to Trump+18 in 2020 (58/40).

The Colorado Springs district?   Trump won it by 22% in 2016 and 10% in 2020.  2016 had a huge third party vote share though (~10%)

Biden set a record for Democratic presidential performance in that seat regardless. Then Polis and Bennet did even better last year. That seat will probably flip sometime in the next decade.

I could definitely see CO-03 and CO-05 voting Democratic regularly by the end of the decade. CO-04 will be the toughest nut to crack but it has Douglas County in the district. It could be in the single digits very soon, and while I could see it going D in statewide races it’ll take some time before it catches up downballot.

I don't think CO-03 will become a "blue" district anytime soon, but given Republicans like Boebart and how close 2022 was, it could definitely become an R-tilted swing district (it's already nearly there).

Ehh Douglas County alone won't be enough to flip the entire district, imo.

Could get it within 10 at the very least.

Possibly in the long term, but even if it does, that last 10% will be tough to crack. Trends aren't linear and they're going to eventually slow down and stop even in counties like Douglas.

[Schiff for Senate]

https://twitter.com/JesseAPaul/status/1740173695505867235?t=A_LseURomNYelJtbVP2b...
Boebert to carpetbag to CO-04 despite living west of Rockies. On one hand, this means she isn't going to be the incumbent in CO-03 which improves GOP prospects.  On the other hand, Frisch already has an absurd amount of money for a congressional race, especially an open seat.

In CO-04, we'll see if the GOP rolls over for her national image, especially since residency and the handjob incident are good nonideological points of attack for fellow conservatives.

She's literally carpetbagging to a district all the way across the state. And last year, as the incumbent, she didn't win renomination by even two-to-one. I don't think she's going to succeed in this.

Btw, what is this "handjob incident?"

[Schiff for Senate]

https://twitter.com/JesseAPaul/status/1740173695505867235?t=A_LseURomNYelJtbVP2b...
Boebert to carpetbag to CO-04 despite living west of Rockies. On one hand, this means she isn't going to be the incumbent in CO-03 which improves GOP prospects.  On the other hand, Frisch already has an absurd amount of money for a congressional race, especially an open seat.

In CO-04, we'll see if the GOP rolls over for her national image, especially since residency and the handjob incident are good nonideological points of attack for fellow conservatives.

She's literally carpetbagging to a district all the way across the state. And last year, as the incumbent, she didn't win renomination by even two-to-one. I don't think she's going to succeed in this.

Btw, what is this "handjob incident?"

This grandmother "south of 40" was giving a handjob to a guy at a showing of Beetlejuice in Denver.

Oh yeah I remember seeing a thread on that incident. I hadn't realized it was a handjob though, lmao.