OH-9 megathread

[Schiff for Senate]

It's still unclear if OH-GOP will redraw and if so if they make Kaptur's seat redder. I think even against a more "normal" R, she still had a decent chance of holding this seat after seeing what she accomplished in 2022; yes a lot of that was because Majewski was bad, but basically nowhere else in the Country did we see a Dem have that kind of overperformance of pres partisanship because of a crazy R.

Agreed. I called the race Safe D well before the election, but even I was pleasantly surprised by just how much Kaptur was able to win by.

[Schiff for Senate]

Kaptur's winning this whether it's against Majewski or Merrin. Calling it now.
Remind me about this post after Election Day if she doesn't.

[Schiff for Senate]

Eh. She's not in danger. Her party is in danger when she retires, but she's a well-entrenched incumbent.

And even when she retires it’s not an auto-flip. Tim Ryan carried the seat last year. And if a commission is passed next year Democrats probably get a boost in a 2027 redraw by replacing western rurals with Wood.

IF they replace western rurals with wood Bob Latta walks through that seat

Disagree. Wood is far less Republican than the rurals - in fact, such a seat would probably be narrowly D even on the presidential level. And Idt Kaptur would underperform the top of the ticket, not even against Latta.

[Schiff for Senate]

Kind of proving my point right here about Kaptur being a strong enough candidate to win against Merrin or Majewski even if Trump wins the seat by more than 2020:

While the Republican candidates are desperately trying to prove their fealty to Donald Trump, what is Marcy Kaptur doing?

Congresswoman Kaptur is focused on bringing meaningful investment to Northern Ohio, renewing and rebuilding aging infrastructure, and bringing down costs for Americans paying too much for life-saving prescription drugs.”

Marcy Kaptur is loyal to the people. The Republicans in this race are more worried about Trump than for ordinary, hardworking Ohioans.

Now obviously that would need to be reworded, but that kind of messaging would be quite potent, imo. Rn it's implied and she isn't explicitly calling them out for seeking Trump's approval, but in the GE, this sort of explicit attack will likely be brought up, and I think with success.