Mississippi Megathread 2023

[Schiff for Senate]

Getting OK-GOV 2022 vibes from this one (supposed unpopularity of the incumbent Republican governor is greatly exaggerated, race is quickly rated as competitive, D challenger ends up doing worse than the last D challenger with 'surprisingly' little movement in four years).

Also, the bottom really fell out for MS Democrats in 2022 on a night when Democrats more than held their own nationally. House Democrats lost the popular vote in MS by 29 points and came very close to having their worst House result in history.

I'm sorry, but I truly don't recall anyone on here ever suggesting OK-GOV was competitive. Maybe I'm wrong, in which case feel free to show me where any poster suggested OK-GOV was a tossup or whatever, but otherwise, this is an obvious strawman. Yes, Hofmeister did put up quite an impressive performance, but she never had a chance at actually winning, and I'm really not sure that anyone thought she did.

[Schiff for Senate]

Three things to watch for as tomorrow's results come in:

• Black turnout, in particular Hinds County - Presley needs this to come through massively, say with Hinds at 87-90% of the combined Rankin and Madison turnout, not like 80% or less, and also good numbers in the Delta
• Turnout of the "flag people" - A lot of them feel like Reeves betrayed them by allowing the flag to change in the George Floyd aftermath. This will be harder to recognize, but if turnout looks low in George and Greene Counties (those are very small counties, but they're the only two that voted against the new flag), it might be a sign that the flag hopium may be real.
• Margin in suburban Madison, Rankin, and DeSoto Counties - Hood did well in all 3 of these, even winning Madison, but Presley is going to have to do even better to have a real shot.

I think Presley needs to hit on all 3 of these to win, or maybe do really well on 2 of them and have the third be a wash.

With 76% in, Presley has 40% of the vote in Desoto. Hood got 37%. Good or bad sign?

I just checked out DeSoto and it’s scaring me. Most of the vote is in and Reeves is up pretty big. He’s underperforming Trump by single digits. Yes it’s a suburban county where Biden 2029 was quite an over performance but tbh Im nonetheless concerned at what this bodes for the statewide.

As for the remaining 56% of the vote it will obviously be solid Democratic because Hinds, for obvious reasons, has not yet begun reporting. Nonetheless there’s a 15 point, 56,000 vote deficit, that I doubt Presley will be able to overcome unless turnout in the right places (aka Jackson, the Delta) rlly exceeds expectations.

[Schiff for Senate]

Much as I would love for him to Presley isn’t winning 

Ive looked at a few counties where all the votes are in like Benton and Attala and the over performance is consistently at around 10 points or less. Needless to say the over performance in these rural areas needs to be 15-20 or more for him to win.

[Schiff for Senate]

Looks like there’ll very possibly be a Biden-Reeves county, too: Marshall, on the northern border.