Schiff for Senate
CentristRepublican
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Posts: 12,350
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« on: October 17, 2022, 07:05:07 PM » |
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Honestly, maybe it's just me, but the lazy/obvious explanation is the coasts go underwater because of rising sea levels and ice caps melting ('muh climate change', basically). In CA, that has a very obvious effect, since the coastal counties are very urban, populous D strongholds, while the inland is much more conservative - deducting all the coastal counties from CA in 2020 means Biden wins by about 300,000 votes out of about 5 million cast - so a margin of just about 6%, give or take. Then fool around with #trendz - move Hispanics/Asians rightward, and you get your R+5 result. In NY, climate change eats up NYC and Long Island, leaving only Upstate New York (and, depending on how you define the Upstate, a few other counties). With that done, deduct some of the counties in western NY that border Lake Ontario - including Monroe (Rochester) and Erie (Buffalo). By the time you've done both those things, NY casts roughly 3 million votes in 2020, and of that, Biden wins by less than 200,000 - so a % margin of probably 6-9% or thereabouts. Then, again, mess around with #trendz - maybe move rural NY a lot to the right, I don't know, whatever - and an R+3 result is quite possible.
As for GA being D+32, all I can guess is that the Atlanta metro continued its crazy growth rates - diversifying and growing and liberalising at a crazy rate - and outside of Atlanta, people in rural GA just packing up and leaving the state (particularly white people). Of course, we also need to account for the fact that, under my 'climate change is devastating to the coasts' scenario, coastal GA will be underwater, including Savannah, which is a not-meaningless source of Democratic votes (in 2020, Biden's raw vote margin in Chatham County was over twice his statewide raw vote margin - so if you deleted Chatham from GA, Trump would have very narrowly won GA in 2020).
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