AK-AL Special election: Peltola wins!

[Schiff for Senate]

Ugh, that's the one that was still missing in the next congress. MTG, Boebert, Gaetz, Cathron, Gosar and now Palin. This is going to be a heck of a GOP caucus.

On the bright side, at least Mo Brooks leaves office.

[Schiff for Senate]

Wonderful, just wonderful. Also this is the first time in like 50 years a Democrat won AK-AL.

[Schiff for Senate]

Democrats could keep the House in 2022. A month ago I’d have said it was like a 5% chance or so…now it’s quite possible IMO!

[Schiff for Senate]

What is perhaps most significant here is that Peltola was massively outspent - almost 4 to 1 by Palin alone and 7 to 1 when including Begich - yet still managed to win. Obviously Palin/the improving environment did a lot of work for her, but important to remember that many Democrats running in far more Dem-favorable places will not be outspent by their opponents, and will in fact significantly outspend them (and many have similarly toxic opponents).

All this is true, but the only thing that concerns me is AK has very…unique politics (just one example of this: Lisa Murkowski win a write-in campaign for senate, and even in the 2014 wave, Democrats nearly won AK-SEN), and its form of voting in this case (RCV and whatnot) was also unique. Both those factors helped Paltola here. Don’t get me wrong, this victory is still just great, for a multitude of reasons, but we need to be a tad careful about reading too much into this. The NY special was a more significant “bellwether” IMO.

[Schiff for Senate]

There is absolutely no reason folks should be diminishing this victory.

A year ago, you'd be crazy for suggesting that the Democrats could pick up the Alaska House seat for even three months.

I'm very happy about this, believe me. Great win - first time this seat has gone blue in 50 years, more than doubling the area represented by Democrats, defeating Sarah Palin again, et. al.

I only question how representative this will be of the midterms. As I've said - AK has very weird politics and voting systems. Very different circumstances. I think NY19 was a much more accurate and unbiased reflection of the way voters are leaning. Not that this isn't an encouraging sign or anything - Democrats' chances of holding the House are IMO much, much higher than at this point last month.

[Schiff for Senate]

The Democrats were able to win Alabama in the lead up to the 2018 blue wave midterm elections. Republicans can't even win in Alaska in what is supposedly a red wave year.

Bad faith comparison...Moore was a uniquely terrible candidate, as you're well aware. If not for his pedophilia (being revealed), he'd have won by double digits.

[Schiff for Senate]

Saying Palin was a terrible candidate misses the point. Even with better candidates, Democrats wouldn't be winning a race like this if the national environment was a Republican wave. These opportunities open up as the national environment improves.

Agreed. Just saying that, AK is a weird enough state that even if it WERE a red wave, the Dem could plausibly come close under the right circumstances (see AK-SEN 2014). I do agree though, there isn’t going to be any red wave in November. In fact, at this point it’s quite possible Democrats keep the House (and expand their Senate majority, even).

[Schiff for Senate]

Alaska is a very small state with a huge diversity in economy/education/etc while also having a good third of the population in glad handing distance. This is the state where nearly 20% of the legislature is either independent, non-caucusing, or outright in coalition with democrats. Said democratic coalition has lead the state since 2016.

I am extremely hesitant to draw conclusions based of one race in such a state, but it still makes me feel better about November.

This, basically