Rhode Island's 2nd Congressional District has an open seat

[Schiff for Senate]

This race is Safe D. And yes, I know it was just Clinton+7. It was also Biden+14.

I still think CT-05 is more winnable for Republicans than RI-2 in 2022, but it’s good that Republicans are putting up wave insurance candidates in districts like this. While Republicans only won two New England districts in 2010 and 2014, I could see them winning as many as five in a wave this year if they’re lucky enough and candidate recruitment isn’t a complete flop.

I don’t think that (with some exceptions like college towns and extremely affluent suburban/coastal areas) the D margins in New England that we saw in 2020 are really sustainable for the party in the long term, especially in the more small-town/rural areas. I’m getting Iowa 2014 vibes from some of these places.

Except that New England is demographically so different from Iowa. More Latinos and other minorities and far fewer evangelical Christians. I would bet that the GOP takes Pappas' seat and nothing else in 2022

ME-02 is also very much winnable for the GOP considering it voted for Trump by a decent amount.

Yeah, I'd say the following New England seats could flip in 2022:

ME02 (is likelier than not to flip)
NH01 (is likelier than not to flip)
CT05 (has about a 50% chance of flipping)

Other than that - no. ME01 is very solidly blue, as is VT-AL, and all 9 of MA's seats are solidly Democratic, the kinds of seats that have a chance at flipping only in a massive, massive wave of epic proportions (all but MA09 gave Biden north of 61%, and even MA09 was Biden+18). Both RI seats are going blue as well - the less Democratic of the two, which is the seat being discussed here, was Biden+14. And in CT, aside from CT05, 3 of the other 4 seats are Biden+20 or higher, and the seat that isn't, CT02, has a strong incumbent, Joe Courtney, who will survive anything short of a tsunami.

[Schiff for Senate]

This race is Safe D. And yes, I know it was just Clinton+7. It was also Biden+14.

I still think CT-05 is more winnable for Republicans than RI-2 in 2022, but it’s good that Republicans are putting up wave insurance candidates in districts like this. While Republicans only won two New England districts in 2010 and 2014, I could see them winning as many as five in a wave this year if they’re lucky enough and candidate recruitment isn’t a complete flop.

I don’t think that (with some exceptions like college towns and extremely affluent suburban/coastal areas) the D margins in New England that we saw in 2020 are really sustainable for the party in the long term, especially in the more small-town/rural areas. I’m getting Iowa 2014 vibes from some of these places.

Except that New England is demographically so different from Iowa. More Latinos and other minorities and far fewer evangelical Christians. I would bet that the GOP takes Pappas' seat and nothing else in 2022

ME-02 is also very much winnable for the GOP considering it voted for Trump by a decent amount.

Yeah, I'd say the following New England seats could flip in 2022:

ME02 (is likelier than not to flip)
NH01 (is likelier than not to flip)
CT05 (has about a 50% chance of flipping)

Other than that - no. ME01 is very solidly blue, as is VT-AL, and all 9 of MA's seats are safe or likely Democratic, the kinds of seats that will flip only in a wave. Both RI seats are going blue as well - the less Democratic of the two, which is the seat being discussed here, was Biden+14. And in CT, aside from CT05, 3 of the other 4 seats are Biden+20 or higher, and the seat that isn't, CT02, has a strong incumbent, Joe Courtney, who will survive anything short of a tsunami.

The political geography in New England is quite favorable to Democrats. Rs win 40% or more of the vote in most of the states there but they have only a few really winnable congressional districts.

I don't know about the other states but this is 100% true in MA.

[Schiff for Senate]

This race is Safe D. And yes, I know it was just Clinton+7. It was also Biden+14.

I still think CT-05 is more winnable for Republicans than RI-2 in 2022, but it’s good that Republicans are putting up wave insurance candidates in districts like this. While Republicans only won two New England districts in 2010 and 2014, I could see them winning as many as five in a wave this year if they’re lucky enough and candidate recruitment isn’t a complete flop.

I don’t think that (with some exceptions like college towns and extremely affluent suburban/coastal areas) the D margins in New England that we saw in 2020 are really sustainable for the party in the long term, especially in the more small-town/rural areas. I’m getting Iowa 2014 vibes from some of these places.

Except that New England is demographically so different from Iowa. More Latinos and other minorities and far fewer evangelical Christians. I would bet that the GOP takes Pappas' seat and nothing else in 2022

ME-02 is also very much winnable for the GOP considering it voted for Trump by a decent amount.

Yeah, I'd say the following New England seats could flip in 2022:

ME02 (is likelier than not to flip)
NH01 (is likelier than not to flip)
CT05 (has about a 50% chance of flipping)

Other than that - no. ME01 is very solidly blue, as is VT-AL, and all 9 of MA's seats are safe or likely Democratic, the kinds of seats that will flip only in a wave. Both RI seats are going blue as well - the less Democratic of the two, which is the seat being discussed here, was Biden+14. And in CT, aside from CT05, 3 of the other 4 seats are Biden+20 or higher, and the seat that isn't, CT02, has a strong incumbent, Joe Courtney, who will survive anything short of a tsunami.

The political geography in New England is quite favorable to Democrats. Rs win 40% or more of the vote in most of the states there but they have only a few really winnable congressional districts.

I don't know about the other states but this is 100% true in MA.

MA, CT, and to a lesser degree VT and NH this is very true. ME packs Dems a bit, and once you start getting to NY Dems become more packed exclusively into urban communities.

VT has one at-large district. I'm not sure how political geography could possibly benefit the Democrats as far as House races are concerned. If anything, VT as a state is unlucky since it's kind of a Democratic pack (VT+NH would be a nice solid blue state, as opposed to a massively blue VT and a somewhat swingy NH).

[Schiff for Senate]

This race is Safe D. And yes, I know it was just Clinton+7. It was also Biden+14.

I still think CT-05 is more winnable for Republicans than RI-2 in 2022, but it’s good that Republicans are putting up wave insurance candidates in districts like this. While Republicans only won two New England districts in 2010 and 2014, I could see them winning as many as five in a wave this year if they’re lucky enough and candidate recruitment isn’t a complete flop.

I don’t think that (with some exceptions like college towns and extremely affluent suburban/coastal areas) the D margins in New England that we saw in 2020 are really sustainable for the party in the long term, especially in the more small-town/rural areas. I’m getting Iowa 2014 vibes from some of these places.

Except that New England is demographically so different from Iowa. More Latinos and other minorities and far fewer evangelical Christians. I would bet that the GOP takes Pappas' seat and nothing else in 2022

ME-02 is also very much winnable for the GOP considering it voted for Trump by a decent amount.

Yeah, I'd say the following New England seats could flip in 2022:

ME02 (is likelier than not to flip)
NH01 (is likelier than not to flip)
CT05 (has about a 50% chance of flipping)

Other than that - no. ME01 is very solidly blue, as is VT-AL, and all 9 of MA's seats are safe or likely Democratic, the kinds of seats that will flip only in a wave. Both RI seats are going blue as well - the less Democratic of the two, which is the seat being discussed here, was Biden+14. And in CT, aside from CT05, 3 of the other 4 seats are Biden+20 or higher, and the seat that isn't, CT02, has a strong incumbent, Joe Courtney, who will survive anything short of a tsunami.

The political geography in New England is quite favorable to Democrats. Rs win 40% or more of the vote in most of the states there but they have only a few really winnable congressional districts.

I don't know about the other states but this is 100% true in MA.

MA, CT, and to a lesser degree VT and NH this is very true. ME packs Dems a bit, and once you start getting to NY Dems become more packed exclusively into urban communities.

VT has one at-large district. I'm not sure how political geography could possibly benefit the Democrats as far as House races are concerned. If anything, VT as a state is unlucky since it's kind of a Democratic pack (VT+NH would be a nice solid blue state, as opposed to a massively blue VT and a somewhat swingy NH).

Not in the House but on a more granular scale Rs basically don't win any significant communities beyond a few pockets.

Not really. I feel like Republicans have surprisingly large numbers in the VT legislature given how poorly they do statewide.

[Schiff for Senate]

This race is Safe D. And yes, I know it was just Clinton+7. It was also Biden+14.

I still think CT-05 is more winnable for Republicans than RI-2 in 2022, but it’s good that Republicans are putting up wave insurance candidates in districts like this. While Republicans only won two New England districts in 2010 and 2014, I could see them winning as many as five in a wave this year if they’re lucky enough and candidate recruitment isn’t a complete flop.

I don’t think that (with some exceptions like college towns and extremely affluent suburban/coastal areas) the D margins in New England that we saw in 2020 are really sustainable for the party in the long term, especially in the more small-town/rural areas. I’m getting Iowa 2014 vibes from some of these places.

Except that New England is demographically so different from Iowa. More Latinos and other minorities and far fewer evangelical Christians. I would bet that the GOP takes Pappas' seat and nothing else in 2022

ME-02 is also very much winnable for the GOP considering it voted for Trump by a decent amount.

Yeah, I'd say the following New England seats could flip in 2022:

ME02 (is likelier than not to flip)
NH01 (is likelier than not to flip)
CT05 (has about a 50% chance of flipping)

Other than that - no. ME01 is very solidly blue, as is VT-AL, and all 9 of MA's seats are safe or likely Democratic, the kinds of seats that will flip only in a wave. Both RI seats are going blue as well - the less Democratic of the two, which is the seat being discussed here, was Biden+14. And in CT, aside from CT05, 3 of the other 4 seats are Biden+20 or higher, and the seat that isn't, CT02, has a strong incumbent, Joe Courtney, who will survive anything short of a tsunami.

The political geography in New England is quite favorable to Democrats. Rs win 40% or more of the vote in most of the states there but they have only a few really winnable congressional districts.

I don't know about the other states but this is 100% true in MA.

MA, CT, and to a lesser degree VT and NH this is very true. ME packs Dems a bit, and once you start getting to NY Dems become more packed exclusively into urban communities.

VT has one at-large district. I'm not sure how political geography could possibly benefit the Democrats as far as House races are concerned. If anything, VT as a state is unlucky since it's kind of a Democratic pack (VT+NH would be a nice solid blue state, as opposed to a massively blue VT and a somewhat swingy NH).

Not in the House but on a more granular scale Rs basically don't win any significant communities beyond a few pockets.

Not really. I feel like Republicans have surprisingly large numbers in the VT legislature given how poorly they do statewide.

That's not because of favorable geography but more because the state legistlative districts are so small partisanship is often meaningless. You have several Rs in pretty deep Biden seats

Could you provide an example? Not that I don't believe you - I did think this might be the case to an extent, since CT also has a surprisingly moderate state legislature; I can very easily imagine several RINOs/centrist Republicans with crossover appeal who repreent double-digit Biden districts and have contemplated this as one of the reasons CT and VT have such large GOP caucuses. MA's legislature is quite noticeably more Democratic than VT (MAGOP has 3/40, or 7.5%, of seats in the MA state senate; VTGOP has 7/30, or 22.2%, of seats in the VT state senate), which I find surprising since MA voted to the right of VT in 2020. One reason for this might be that Democrats have great luck in MA in terms of how their votes are located - I was once able to draw MA's 40 senate seats in such a way that, while still drawing decent-shaped districts, I was able to get 40 Biden seats (with the least Democratic, if I remember correctly, still about Biden+2 or Biden+3).

[Schiff for Senate]

This race is Safe D. And yes, I know it was just Clinton+7. It was also Biden+14.

I still think CT-05 is more winnable for Republicans than RI-2 in 2022, but it’s good that Republicans are putting up wave insurance candidates in districts like this. While Republicans only won two New England districts in 2010 and 2014, I could see them winning as many as five in a wave this year if they’re lucky enough and candidate recruitment isn’t a complete flop.

I don’t think that (with some exceptions like college towns and extremely affluent suburban/coastal areas) the D margins in New England that we saw in 2020 are really sustainable for the party in the long term, especially in the more small-town/rural areas. I’m getting Iowa 2014 vibes from some of these places.

Except that New England is demographically so different from Iowa. More Latinos and other minorities and far fewer evangelical Christians. I would bet that the GOP takes Pappas' seat and nothing else in 2022

ME-02 is also very much winnable for the GOP considering it voted for Trump by a decent amount.

Yeah, I'd say the following New England seats could flip in 2022:

ME02 (is likelier than not to flip)
NH01 (is likelier than not to flip)
CT05 (has about a 50% chance of flipping)

Other than that - no. ME01 is very solidly blue, as is VT-AL, and all 9 of MA's seats are safe or likely Democratic, the kinds of seats that will flip only in a wave. Both RI seats are going blue as well - the less Democratic of the two, which is the seat being discussed here, was Biden+14. And in CT, aside from CT05, 3 of the other 4 seats are Biden+20 or higher, and the seat that isn't, CT02, has a strong incumbent, Joe Courtney, who will survive anything short of a tsunami.

The political geography in New England is quite favorable to Democrats. Rs win 40% or more of the vote in most of the states there but they have only a few really winnable congressional districts.

I don't know about the other states but this is 100% true in MA.

MA, CT, and to a lesser degree VT and NH this is very true. ME packs Dems a bit, and once you start getting to NY Dems become more packed exclusively into urban communities.

VT has one at-large district. I'm not sure how political geography could possibly benefit the Democrats as far as House races are concerned. If anything, VT as a state is unlucky since it's kind of a Democratic pack (VT+NH would be a nice solid blue state, as opposed to a massively blue VT and a somewhat swingy NH).

Not in the House but on a more granular scale Rs basically don't win any significant communities beyond a few pockets.

Not really. I feel like Republicans have surprisingly large numbers in the VT legislature given how poorly they do statewide.

That's not because of favorable geography but more because the state legistlative districts are so small partisanship is often meaningless. You have several Rs in pretty deep Biden seats

Could you provide an example? Not that I don't believe you - I did think this might be the case to an extent, since CT also has a surprisingly moderate state legislature; I can very easily imagine several RINOs/centrist Republicans with crossover appeal who repreent double-digit Biden districts and have contemplated this as one of the reasons CT and VT have such large GOP caucuses. MA's legislature is quite noticeably more Democratic than VT (MAGOP has 3/40, or 7.5%, of seats in the MA state senate; VTGOP has 7/30, or 22.2%, of seats in the VT state senate), which I find surprising since MA voted to the right of VT in 2020. One reason for this might be that Democrats have great luck in MA in terms of how their votes are located - I was once able to draw MA's 40 senate seats in such a way that, while still drawing decent-shaped districts, I was able to get 40 Biden seats (with the least Democratic, if I remember correctly, still about Biden+2 or Biden+3).

This guy represents a district that voted for Biden by 40%. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lamoille_Vermont_Senate_District,_2012%E2%80%932022

Also I just remembered VT's senate "districts" are counties (except for Essex and Orleans being combined), so it's not hard to imagine that the (vast) majority of the 7 GOP senators are actually from Biden seats.