Why was Nashville cracked but not Louisville? (user search)
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  Why was Nashville cracked but not Louisville? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Why was Nashville cracked but not Louisville?  (Read 907 times)
Schiff for Senate
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« on: January 24, 2022, 12:04:16 PM »

Kentucky has stricter rules about redistricting than Tennessee and more cordial relations between the parties, basically.

Yeah, and also, McConnell opposed it strongly (possibly a little because Louisville is his hometown). TNGOP << KYGOP. 1/5 KY House Republicans (only Hal Rogers) voted to object; 7/7 TN House Republicans did.
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #1 on: January 25, 2022, 12:45:58 PM »

Very large factor which is underdiscussed is the current TN gerrymander cracks the suburbs with rural areas already  to prevent any rural Democratic comeback in 2012.

You mean 2022. But yeah, you're possibly right.
TN pre-redistricting has such ugly and terrible maps, considering a much cleaner, fairer map with the same solid 7-2 result could be made (I know incumbent protection made it impossible even if the TNGOP didn't plan to gerrymander, but I really liked the Democratic proposal - it kept the composition the same at 7-2, but made the maps much cleaner, and did create a suburban seat in the Nashville suburbs).
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #2 on: January 25, 2022, 07:49:41 PM »

Very large factor which is underdiscussed is the current TN gerrymander cracks the suburbs with rural areas already  to prevent any rural Democratic comeback in 2012.

You mean 2022. But yeah, you're possibly right.
TN pre-redistricting has such ugly and terrible maps, considering a much cleaner, fairer map with the same solid 7-2 result could be made (I know incumbent protection made it impossible even if the TNGOP didn't plan to gerrymander, but I really liked the Democratic proposal - it kept the composition the same at 7-2, but made the maps much cleaner, and did create a suburban seat in the Nashville suburbs).

No he meant in 2012 the TN GOP were one of the parties that didn't believe the Dixiecrats were dead and used their long-term base in the suburbs to crack rural areas that had previously supported these blue dogs. It is the reason why TN-05 existed for the last 10 years - the GOP had the voters in 2008 to cut it, but the political knowledge at the time did not favor such a move.

Interesting. Really shows how much rural TN (and the entire white rural south, for that matter) has swung rightward in the past decade or fifteen years or so.
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Schiff for Senate
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Posts: 12,341
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« Reply #3 on: January 30, 2022, 10:37:41 PM »

Very large factor which is underdiscussed is the current TN gerrymander cracks the suburbs with rural areas already  to prevent any rural Democratic comeback in 2012.

You mean 2022. But yeah, you're possibly right.
TN pre-redistricting has such ugly and terrible maps, considering a much cleaner, fairer map with the same solid 7-2 result could be made (I know incumbent protection made it impossible even if the TNGOP didn't plan to gerrymander, but I really liked the Democratic proposal - it kept the composition the same at 7-2, but made the maps much cleaner, and did create a suburban seat in the Nashville suburbs).

No he meant in 2012 the TN GOP were one of the parties that didn't believe the Dixiecrats were dead and used their long-term base in the suburbs to crack rural areas that had previously supported these blue dogs. It is the reason why TN-05 existed for the last 10 years - the GOP had the voters in 2008 to cut it, but the political knowledge at the time did not favor such a move.

Interesting. Really shows how much rural TN (and the entire white rural south, for that matter) has swung rightward in the past decade or fifteen years or so.


I'd agree. It's astonishing that Democrats held the majority of Tennessee's congressional seats as late as 2008, including four districts that were won by John McCain. But now, outside of Nashville, Memphis, Knoxville, and Chattanooga, they are DOA in the state.

I mean, pre-2010, it was the same story throughout the south -  2010 was a total wipeout for white Southern Democrats. Interesting stats that show this - below, some southern states and the number of Democratic representatives in the 2008 (111th congress) and 2010 (112th congress) elections:

AL: Democrats went from winning 2/7 seats to winning 1/7 (went from 1 to 0 white Democrats)
MS: Democrats went from winning 3/4 seats to winning 1/4 (went from 2 to 0 white Democrats)
LA: Democrats went from winning 2/7 seats to winning 1/7 (went from 1 to 0 white Democrats)
AR: Democrats went from winning 3/4 seats to winning 1/4 (went from 3 to 1 white Democrats)
SC: Democrats went from winning 2/6 seats to winning 1/6 (went from 1 to 0 white Democrats)
MO: Democrats went from winning 4/9 seats to winning 3/9 (went from 2 to 1 white Democrats)
Admittedly, the carnage in TN was much worse -
TN: Democrats went from winning 5/9 seats to winning 2/9 (went from 5 to 2 white Democrats)
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